New national crime data analyzed by expert Jeff Asher reveals the U.S. is on track for the largest single-year drop in murders ever recorded, with homicides down nearly 20% compared to 2024, according to the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI).

By yourNEWS Media Newsroom

WASHINGTON — The United States is experiencing a historic decline in murders, with crime statistics expert Jeff Asher projecting the largest one-year drop in homicides ever recorded. Data from the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI)—a national database aggregating crime reports from hundreds of law enforcement agencies—shows murders down nearly 20% through October 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

The trend marks a dramatic reversal from the COVID-era crime surge, aligning with FBI Director Kash Patel’s recent assertion that the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in modern history. Patel credited a bureau-wide shift toward prioritizing violent crime enforcement.

Asher, an independent analyst, noted that while national crime estimates are subject to revision, the current trend is so pronounced that the FBI is likely to report the lowest U.S. murder rate ever recorded when final 2025 data is released—potentially surpassing the previous record low set in 2014.

The decline in murders is part of a broader reduction in violent crime. RTCI data shows significant drops in motor vehicle theft, robbery, and aggravated assault, indicating the decrease is not isolated to one region or community type.

Major cities are seeing some of the sharpest improvements:

  • New York City and Memphis reported nearly 20% fewer murders.
  • Chicago saw a 28% decline.
  • Los Angeles County experienced significant reductions.

While most jurisdictions reflect the downward trend, a few outliers report volatile spikes, a phenomenon Asher attributes to smaller agencies experiencing year-to-year fluctuations.

The decline coincides with the Trump administration’s second-term focus on combating violent crime, emphasizing stronger law enforcement and expanded support for police. The administration’s policies have included increased federal resources for local agencies and a crackdown on repeat offenders, contributing to the steep drop in homicides.

As the year concludes, the data suggests a profound shift in public safety trends, offering a rare bright spot amid ongoing debates over crime and policing in America. The question now is whether this momentum can be sustained—or if the gains will be short-lived.

Original article
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