National home prices rose in July even as mortgage rates climbed over the spring and summer. Mortgage rates have moved higher since, and the Fed raised its benchmark rate in September. How much more pressure can home prices absorb?
Higher rates squeeze buyers, but borrowing costs alone don't explain why prices have held. What has kept prices up is being tested again. Buyers still face expensive borrowing with no certainty that waiting will bring lower prices.
Barry Habib, founder and CEO of Highway and a member of Fannie Mae's board, examines why home prices have held up so far. He also considers what further rate increases could mean for prices. ----- Let's Stay in Contact: • Substack - https://substack.com/@themarketinsidershow • X (Twitter) - https://twitter.com/MktInsiderShow • Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/company/market-insider-show/ ----- 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘐𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘈𝘭𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘢 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. 𝘚𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴.
Video Summary
AI Generated
Barry Habib analyzes the U.S. housing market, explaining how inflation and government debt drive interest rates. He discusses the resilience of home prices due to supply shortages, critiques Federal Reserve metrics, and advocates for homeownership through leverage. The discussion concludes with his personal journey overcoming cancer and his philosophy on happiness through progress and service.
Interest rates are going up and mortgage rates are going up as a result of it.
At the same time, we have a shortage in the housing market.
The question is, will the housing market get impacted significantly?
I would not be surprised if you saw some moderation or some modest declines nationwide
in home prices over the next few months.
Today, we sit down with Barry Habib, who sits on the board of Fannie Mae,
the largest mortgage company in the U.S.
He'll tell us what he's seeing right now in the economy and the housing market
and where he thinks the housing market is headed.
So you've got 1.4 million demand, 1.1 million supply.
The Iran conflict started at the very end of February.
Rates started going up, oil prices started going up,
and we had seen much more elevated interest rates
as you got into the period of time.
Thing of it is, though, is that we have gone up another leg since then.
Will home appreciation remain resilient with now this second leg higher?
I am skeptical about that.
I'm Siamak. Welcome to Marketing Saturday.
Barry, it's great to have you on. Welcome.
It is really great to be here with you, my friend.
We want to talk to you about real estate, mortgages, and interest rates.
Right now, the interest rates are significantly higher.
And how do you see what's unfolding right now in the mortgage space?
Well, it's almost like a perfect storm, unfortunately.
You have an extreme amount of debt that is being issued by our government.
Just the debt service right now is over a trillion dollars.
We're spending more on that than we do on defense.
But also with the AI build-out, you have a tremendous amount of corporate debt
that is competing for money.
And so you have a tremendous amount of supply.
And in order to garner demand, you have to offer a little bit of a higher interest rate.
But then you combine that with what you're seeing going on with inflation.
Now, inflation is being driven predominantly by oil prices.
Oil is in everything.
And it certainly drives headline inflation, which includes energy prices.
But even in the core readings, you do get energy that becomes part of that,
that kind of seeps through into it.
Things like transportation or manufacturing.
The energy prices, oil prices always work their way into these things.
And the readings that we have are troublesome.
And you probably already know this, but a nice analogy that you can give
that really helps understand why inflation affects interest rates is,
imagine if you, who are listening, are lending money.
And if you're lending money and you're lending on a mortgage,
you receive in return for loaning out that money a fixed payment every month.
And that stays the same.
So let's just hypothetically say that fixed payment is $2,000.
And you go online, you go to your Amazon account,
and you have a list of things that you wind up purchasing with that $2,000.
Next month, you get the check that you receive for the mortgage payment.
You take that and you go through your list on Amazon,
and you get pretty much everything on that list once again.
But over time, what you discover is you can't get everything on the list.
And the reason is because of inflation making things cost more over time.
So what it's really doing is it's taking that $2,000 payment.
It's still the same payment.
It's just not going as far.
It's eroding over time.
So if you think about this as someone who's loaning money,
let's just say I'm loaning money at 7%.
And if I think inflation's at 3%, then I make a 4% rate of return.
That's my net that I'm getting, and I'm okay with that.
But if I think that inflation is moving higher,
let's say from 3% to 4%,
well, then what's going to happen is that my 7% rate of return now
is being eroded by 4% inflation.
I'm only making a 3% net rate of return.
So I can't do anything about inflation.
But what I can do is I can charge a higher rate.
And by doing so now, I could preserve my rate of return.
That's why when inflation goes up, interest rates rise.
Now, conversely, if inflation goes down,
or if I believe that inflation's going down,
well, I can get more aggressive.
I can maybe take more market share.
I could say something like, you know,
I could go with a lower interest rate because inflation's lower,
so it won't erode enough of my return.
So I could still preserve my 4% return by charging a lower rate.
And that's why inflation is such an important factor
in determining the direction of interest rates.
And we want to talk to you about home prices as well.
But before we get into that, how do you see,
do you have any thoughts of where the interest rates are headed?
It's a hard question to answer.
Well, in the short term, they appear to be headed higher from our perspective.
Now, eventually, I think we will see a reprieve.
Now, a lot's going to depend on a lot of the news items that come out.
We just talked about how important inflation is.
We also have to look at the labor market
because the labor market plays an important role.
If there's softening in the labor market, that helps interest rates.
If inflation comes down, that helps interest rates.
The situation and the tensions in the Middle East,
if it appears that there might be greater oil flow,
but not only oil flow, but if the refineries stop being under attack,
which is another component of it,
then you could probably see interest rates ease.
Another big factor is the Federal Reserve.
So the Federal Reserve's role is twofold.
They want maximum employment,
and they want inflation to be at what they call price stability,
which they deem to be 2%.
There's no magic about that.
That's just an arbitrary number that they came up with.
It's got a long history.
Alan Greenspan, in 1996, was pressured by Janet Yellen,
who said, if you had to, what would be your idea?
He says, boy, I hate to think what would happen if it got out of this room,
but if I had to pick a number, I'd say 2%.
And since then, it's been at 2%.
So it's not as if it's scientific,
but that's what the Fed has chosen as its target.
And with inflation readings significantly above that,
if you go by their favorite gauge,
and I think we should talk about that for a minute,
the favorite gauge is core personal consumption expenditure.
So that's a reading that you get,
but it is deeply, deeply, deeply flawed.
And one of the problems you have with core PCE,
is personal consumption expenditure,
is that it includes certain things that are either very lagging,
like things like shelter costs,
which are about a year behind based upon the way they're calculated.
And shelter costs, predominantly rents or owner's equivalent rent.
If you take a look at real-time numbers,
they're much lower than the readings that the BEA,
the Bureau of Economic is looking at,
or the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Those two numbers are much, much higher than the real-time numbers.
So we're getting kind of a head fake there.
The other is portfolio management fees.
Portfolio management fees make up about four-tenths of a percent
of an inflated number on these readings.
And what is that?
If you have money invested with brokers or with a mutual fund,
they assess a fee to your portfolio.
Now, if that fee were going up from 1% to 1.5% or 2%,
clearly that's inflationary.
But they don't look at it that way.
They look at it the net dollars you pay.
So with a stock market that has risen so dramatically,
the net dollars you're paying in portfolio management fees are higher.
The way the Fed's looking at it,
mistakenly, misguided in this approach,
is that they're thinking that's inflation,
that's hurting the consumer.
In fact, that's the best money I would spend
because that means my portfolio is gaining.
Things are really good.
So it's a horrible methodology to look at it.
And they're trying to re-examine it.
They might fix it.
They realize it's a problem,
and they're thinking about fixing it.
Now, if you put that core PCE aside
and you look at the other inflation measures,
like core CPI, it's dramatically lower.
It's like 2.5%.
If you look at the trueflation numbers,
which measures 10 million data points,
that's about 2.4%.
If you look at the Dallas Fed trim mean,
which Fed Chair Kevin Walsh wants to look at,
that's also at about 2.4%.
What that is is, let's break it down,
the Dallas Fed, which is one of the 12 district banks,
they look at this measurement,
which then trims it.
They take all of the inflation inputs
and they remove the top certain amount,
the bottom certain amounts,
the top 31%, the bottom 24%.
And then the rest, they average it or the mean.
So that's why trimmed and then the mean of it.
And that's showing 2.4%.
Historically, I've looked back
over the last 50 some odd years,
it's a much better gauge of inflation.
And Kevin Walsh wants to be more focused on this.
Now, these numbers tell us that inflation
is not the big issue that the core PCE thinks it is,
but the market's interpretation is inflation's too high.
And that's why you have elevated rates.
So to answer your question, the direction of rates,
when you see a move up this suddenly
in interest rates from the 10-year,
combine that with the Fed hiking rates,
and you see the labor market
not as strong as people would believe,
I don't think the labor market is as strong,
something breaks.
And when it does, whether it be recession,
it's more severe recession,
situation where liquidity seizes up,
any type of urgent attention required situation,
interest rates tend to drop rather precipitously.
So I think that for the short-term rates go up,
but then I see them moving back down,
maybe getting back down on a mortgage,
let's say into the sixes,
on the 10-year into the fours,
maybe meaningfully into the fours.
Now, do you see this having a big impact
on the housing market and the mortgage space?
Yeah, clearly.
Well, you have to look at housing two separate ways.
Housing could be an economic driver,
and that's the pace of sales, the amount of sales.
That's been anemic.
It's been when you combine new construction
with existing home sales,
been below 5 million units,
that's very anemic considering the level
of population we have.
But then there's the other way to look at housing,
and that is housing the investment.
So I'm gonna buy a home,
is that home gonna go down in value?
We saw in the late 2000s,
where I'm losing money, I'm upside down,
I own more of my mortgage than my home,
I'm worried about that,
or is it going to be like it has been
in 79 out of the last 84 years,
where I will see appreciation,
where home prices will go up?
Now, so far, we have seen very resilient
home price appreciation.
And if you break it down month by month,
since March, and why that's important is,
yes, the prices went up in January, February,
but on a monthly basis, even since March,
home prices have gone up between March and July.
The July numbers just came out this morning
before we started recording.
That's the most recent data we have from Kay Schiller.
And that shows, boy, that's some resiliency,
because if you recall,
the Iran conflict started at the very end of February,
rates started going up, oil prices started going up,
and we had seen much more elevated interest rates
as you got into the period of time.
For example, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages
were at 5.875 at the end of February,
and at the end of July,
to combine it with the measurement period,
they were up 1% to 6.875.
So you have a much higher interest rate,
and yet home prices still continued to rise.
Thing of it is, though,
is that we have gone up another leg since then.
Will home appreciation remain resilient
with now this second leg higher?
I am skeptical about that.
I think you have two whammies here.
You've got the fact that you're entering
into a more slower season of home price appreciation
and a leg up in interest rates,
I would not be surprised if you saw some moderation
or some modest declines nationwide
in home prices over the next few months.
Now, that could be a buying opportunity for an individual
because you can get a little bit of a better deal coming in.
I wouldn't expect, it's not gonna drop 20%, okay?
That's not going to happen.
But could you see some moderation
between 5% and 7% in home prices?
I think that's a little on the aggressive side,
but it is possible.
And you mentioned it's not gonna happen.
Do you have the thought that there's a shortage of housing?
Because there's some thoughts,
people are saying there's a shortage of housing,
and then others are saying it's not affordable.
You bring up an absolutely great point,
and you touched on two things
that are critical to talk about.
One is the affordability,
so let's address that in a moment.
But first, let's talk about the basics of economics.
The first thing we learned in economics
is what drives price, it's supply and demand.
So let's talk about those metrics right now.
Now, listen, the first thing we have to say
is that real estate is very, very local.
So it's gonna obviously differ
depending on your local neighborhood.
Your zip code clearly will have your own environment
based upon what supply and demand is,
based upon what the situation for employment is.
There's a lot of variables that go into the population.
So we have to understand that the numbers
we're gonna talk about are on a national average level,
but clearly, everyone's gonna feel different
based upon their own neighborhood.
Local area, because in some areas,
like California, we don't build as much homes,
and in some other areas, in Florida, Texas,
and other places, we build a lot, and it fluctuates.
Absolutely correct.
So let's break it down on a national basis first.
So if we look at demand,
demand comes from something called household formations.
So what does that mean?
Imagine if you got mom and dad and a child.
They live in a household.
At some point in time, that child grows up
and says, I wanna get my own place,
whether it's buying or renting, and they move out.
Well, you still have mom, dad, and a child,
still the same family,
but now they have two households instead of one.
They have formed a household.
And the most recent data, which is a bit dated
because it comes out quarterly,
it was from the end of June,
we're gonna get a new number very, very soon,
we'll probably get a new number here,
which will be on a quarterly basis
that'll represent from the end of September.
The most recent data we have shows
we are forming 1.4 million households per year.
Now, maybe that drops a little bit
because interest rates have gone up
and that does have an impact on it,
but that's demand.
Supply, where does supply come from?
It comes from builders building homes.
It doesn't come from somebody selling their home
because theoretically they might sell a home,
but they've gotta live somewhere else.
So it's neutral when somebody sells a home.
But new stock of homes comes from builders.
Builders have recognized the landscape of interest rates.
They know things are slower.
It's awfully expensive for them
to build vacant homes and carry them.
So they have dropped their level of production
to 1.1 million.
So you've got 1.4 million demand, 1.1 million supply.
It's a recipe for very resilient home prices
even in the face of higher rates.
Now, whether this leg up in higher rates
means something or not, we'll have to see,
but this does bode well for different markets.
Now, there are gonna be markets
that have greater levels of inventory
because of construction.
You mentioned Florida, you mentioned Texas,
but also Texas and Florida
are two of the biggest areas of migration
that people are going to,
which to some extent do absorb that.
So we have to, it's like a Rubik's cube.
You gotta kind of think about all of these things
and contemplate them.
And we do break this down in our data
for every marketplace,
but it does, you have to go pretty deep on this.
Now you mentioned something else with affordability.
And clearly affordability is stretched.
But a lot of times we see data like from Redfin,
which tries to guess how many sellers
there are from buyers.
That is not gospel.
So we have to understand that there's a lot of work
that they're trying to forecast,
and certainly they're trying to do a good job,
but it is not definitive.
And I think it might, in my humble opinion,
exacerbate the fact that there are more sellers
than there are buyers in this market.
I don't think that their numbers are truly accurate
when it comes to that.
But on affordability, what we have to look at
is the way that they often determine it
is median income, median home price.
There's an inherent problem there
that most people forget about.
And that is, if you look at median income,
median means half the people less,
half the people more.
And in the half the people less, think about it.
You're including people that are really not home buyers.
That wonderful 16-year-old who's enterprising
and working hard at a Wendy's or a McDonald's,
they're truly not a home buyer.
So you're including them,
and you're making the numbers for affordability
skewed to appear a lot worse than they truly are.
I'm not saying they're good.
They're definitely stretched.
But the media tends to emphasize some of these numbers
to make them look extraordinarily poor
when, yes, they're under pressure,
but they're certainly not as bad
as the media would have you believe.
A fix for affordability
is if home prices kind of leveled off,
came in a little bit.
They don't have to come down that much.
But the magic elixir is time.
Because as incomes rise over time,
you can very quickly make up that difference.
In a sense, there needs to be another way
of measuring the income,
like the median income for the home buyers.
So if you had a way of understanding,
so people that are in their 30s,
they start thinking about buying home
and having an average or the median of those incomes.
You're dead on.
You're spot on.
I mean, it's a very astute observation.
And the way to do it would be
to just remove the bottom quintile or quartile,
which aren't ever going to be at this moment,
a true home buyer.
And then you could come up with more reasonable rationale
to see where we are.
As I said, it's still stretched.
There's no question.
Nobody's trying to say,
it's a great affordability situation.
It's stretched and it's difficult.
But the numbers that are published
are exacerbating the fact of where we are.
Now, Barry, you mentioned the 1.1 million units
that are coming online.
Does it include the multifamily?
Because we're hearing-
It does.
Okay.
So still a shortage.
Those are dwellings.
Yes, it does.
And that's another issue.
By the way, it's a really smart question to ask.
Because it sure does include multifamily
and its individual dwellings.
So if you're putting a lot of those multifamily units
on the marketplace,
those may be constructed more for the rental area of things.
And that could potentially screw it.
Now, remember, when we talk about demand,
that 1.4 million households,
some of that's going to go for purchases.
Some of that's going to go for rental.
But you could have some skewing there
because if you're producing more rentals or less rentals,
you could have a very tight rental market
compared to where you have for the home buying market.
And we just got numbers from ApartmentList
that show that the rental market does have some slack in it.
We see vacancies, which hit a peak of 7.2%, 7.3%.
It's still hovering around 7%.
And we know that year over year on new rentals,
there's a difference.
A new rental is, hey, I've got nobody here.
Come on in.
So you'll be getting a little bit more of an incentive there.
New rentals are actually slightly down year over year,
meaning the cost of that apartment
from a year ago to today,
it's actually tiny bit cheaper,
not meaningfully less than 1%,
but showing that there's no real pressure there.
But now on an existing home,
an existing home, the landlord says,
hey, you're going to renew your rent.
Well, I know it's a pain in the neck to move.
I also know it's expensive to move.
So they have some pressure that they can apply to you
and typically garner around 3% increase on rents over those.
So when you combine both,
we're really seeing rents go up at about 1.5% a year.
But now going back to those inflation readings,
those inflation readings are showing
where we were kind of a year ago
when it was closer to 3%.
So you're getting overstated PCE and CPI.
In a sense, this 300,000 shortage,
is this happening every year
or has there been a trend over the last few years?
How much is the shortage based on what you're seeing?
Because we've heard numbers from 1 million to 10 million.
It fluctuates rather significantly.
So this shortage that you see,
that is a current reading that we get.
We can compare those every quarter,
but this was truly exacerbated
during the years
where you saw great appreciation levels with COVID,
where you were seeing
about 1.8 to 2 million household formations
and builders were in the neighborhood of 1.4,
1.5 million new homes being built.
And that's why you had such enormous levels of appreciation.
It's something that you wanna look at carefully
if you wanna see the health of appreciation
across the United States.
So yes, you are correct.
It's important to see that relationship between the two
and how it has influenced home price appreciation.
Why do you think the builders are not building?
Because it looks like a good opportunity
if you have like that much of a shortage.
Well, first of all, again, it is very local, number one,
but also builders need to be very cautious and careful
and also be forward thinking.
Because if they believe
that the interest rate environment
would be less favorable
and they have to think about it,
would that curtail demand?
And it does.
And the other thing that they have to think about
is how expensive it is to build a home
and then carry that home,
the cost of that for it being vacant
or having to then be forced to sell
under less favorable circumstances
and give even greater levels of incentives
or price discounts.
So they wanna try and manage their portfolio wisely
and maximize profitability.
So that's why they don't wanna flood the market
because it could backfire.
Now, in terms of how would you go
about buying a home right now,
would you see this as a good opportunity to buy a home?
Or do you think that this tightness in the market
will continue for a number of years?
I really think right now,
even though interest rates are higher,
it's a very good opportunity to purchase a home
because you might be able to negotiate
a little bit more with the seller
than you have been in the past.
I feel that you will make appreciation
going into the future.
Historically, it's probably closer to 4% or 5%.
But even at a modest rate of appreciation of about 3%,
what most people have to remember
and you have to think of
is that the leverage is magical in real estate.
So let me start with this.
Of all the net worth in the United States,
statistically, more than half of it
comes from home equity.
So it's very hard to be very wealthy
without investing in real estate.
Or it's very hard to gain wealth
without real estate as part of your portfolio.
Now, a lot of people will say,
well, the stock market's been great
and I have my money in the stock market.
And because I have my money in the stock market,
it's gaining about 10%.
Why would I wanna take it out of there
and put it into real estate
where maybe that home might appreciate 3%?
Doesn't make sense on the surface,
but it really does.
Let me explain why 3% can be greater than 10%.
So you see, let's use an example.
Let's say a couple has $50,000 in the stock market
and they're renting.
Well, if they're getting 10% on that money,
that's pretty darn good.
That's roughly $5,000 a year
and they're feeling good about that.
But if they were to buy a home,
let's just say that home's $500,000,
they pull their 50,000 out,
they put 10% down on the home
and now that 3% appreciation,
it's not on the 50,000,
the 3% is on the 500,000.
So really on their investment,
they're making not 3%,
but 30% because of the leverage.
And instead of making 5,000 in the stock market,
they profited 15,000,
which is 3% of $500,000.
Now, clearly somebody listening
is gonna be thinking this through
and they're gonna say,
yeah, but hold on, Barry,
but they've also now got a mortgage payment.
You are absolutely correct,
but this is the beauty of real estate.
This is the magic of real estate
is that while you do have a mortgage payment,
you know what you don't have anymore?
You don't have the rental payment.
Real estate is the only thing
that gives you an offset for adding the leverage.
Now, somebody might take it a little further
and they might say,
let me challenge that even further
and what if the mortgage payment,
which more than likely will be
significantly higher than the rental payment?
Yes, that is, let's say likely that it's higher,
but that's the gross payment.
You need to think this deeper.
Part of the mortgage payment is principal.
And principal can make up
a pretty significant portion of the payment
compared to how much greater it is than renting.
So maybe that mortgage payment's more than rent,
but wait a second,
principal is not a cost.
It's a forced savings plan.
Instead of it sitting in the checking account,
it goes into equity in your home.
Your net worth does not change
with the principal payment.
So it's not a cost.
So take that into consideration
and the payment,
you'll be surprised how close it gets to renting.
The second aspect is
you will likely see a bigger tax benefit from it.
So once you do that,
you might actually be cheaper than renting.
And then the third is what happens over time.
Well, your mortgage payment's fixed,
but that rent, as I said on renewals,
is gonna average 3% rise over time,
which can be very significant.
In a short period of time,
that rent's gonna eclipse the mortgage payment.
So the benefit of home ownership,
even in a higher interest rate environment,
creates a tremendous amount of wealth.
And remember, rates likely will cycle down,
no guarantee,
but when they do,
you can always refinance and take advantage of that.
Very interesting, Barry.
Thanks for explaining this in depth.
And what about the 30-year mortgage?
Because this is something unique to US
and a lot of people may not appreciate it
because in other countries,
the rates adjust every five years,
even in places like Canada, UK,
and the whole world, essentially.
What are your thoughts on the 30-year mortgage
and how are we able to do it here in the US?
Well, explain, first of all,
I wanna underscore your brilliant point that,
and most people don't know this,
is that that's one of the blessings in the United States.
So let's think about this.
Let's think about where we were interest rate-wise
five years ago.
And if you bought your home in almost any other country
other than the United States,
you more than likely got a ridiculously low rate,
maybe in the 2% or 3% range.
Five years later, you're loan adjusted.
And as you can see in this environment today,
you'd go from 2% or 3% to 7% or 8%.
That would be a significant payment shock.
But in the United States,
that person that bought their home
with 2% or 3% five years ago,
they're paying 2% or 3% today
and if they'd like to for another 25 years from now.
Now, how does that happen?
Well, mortgages carry risk
and the risk is not of somebody
making the payments necessarily.
The risk is what happens with interest rates.
So if you have a bank,
a bank, imagine a bank,
most people think in the United States,
banks are lending money.
They're not.
They might, you have a bank or a mortgage company
that collects the payments,
but they do not hold the mortgage.
The mortgage is too risky.
Why is it risky from an interest rate perspective?
Look, let's just take that same example, right?
Let's just say if I lent money a few years back at 3%.
Well, that might've been a good going rate back then,
but if interest rates rise dramatically,
let's even say just to use round numbers to 6%.
Well, if I wanted to value what my mortgage is worth
or if I wanted to try and sell it to somebody else,
who is gonna buy that mortgage paying 3%?
If anywhere else you can go, you can get 6%.
If I wanted to sell it,
I'd have to discount that very deeply
in order to entice somebody else
to buy something that yields 3% when they can get 6%.
I might have to cut the value of it in half,
even if my consumer is paying me my mortgage
early every month.
So as you could see, it's a very risky endeavor.
Now, conversely, you could make money
if interest rates went down and you had a higher mortgage.
But banks don't wanna play that game of Russian roulette.
They wanna know a fixed steady return.
So that's why in other countries,
they don't play that game.
They do these adjustables,
maybe taking the risk out to five years
where they can then adjust.
But in the US, how can we do this?
Well, we do it by offloading the risk.
How do we offload it?
Well, that bank or a mortgage company,
what they do is they've originated the loan
and then they sell it.
They sell it now to a wholesale lender.
And that wholesale lender then takes it
and they will sell it to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
So again, everybody's passing this hot potato.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they're smart.
They know they can't hold this thing either,
but they go to Wall Street
and they get these big pools of mortgages
and the folks on Wall Street turn it into something
called a mortgage-backed security,
which we're the only place that has this mortgage market
with mortgage-backed securities and they sell it.
Who does Wall Street sell this to?
Well, all of us.
You might be surprised.
Look at your insurance plans,
look at your mutual funds,
your IRAs, your 401ks, us.
We take on the risk,
which is why one year our portfolio might go up 12%,
the next year might go down 7%.
But it is the public that takes on the risk.
Everyone else along the line,
the mortgage company, the wholesale,
the servicer, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Wall Street,
they make a piece of the pie
and they sell it and let go of the risk.
Fascinating.
Thanks for sharing that with us.
Now, you have an amazing story yourself
and can you walk us through that,
how you got into this?
You know, I've been very, very blessed
because I've been faced with some real challenges,
but I've also been given some amazing opportunities.
I mean, I would have never imagined as being,
you know, first born in my family here in the United States
and having, you know, my parents very poor,
my dad passing away when I was a young boy,
being able to, you know, say,
wow, my goodness, here I am,
one of eight members of Fannie Mae's board,
you know, a fortune 25 company,
having many different businesses
that I've been able to grow and establish,
whether it were in the mortgage industry
or real estate, in theater,
where I've produced Rock of Ages,
the 27th longest running show in Broadway history,
having the opportunity to be in the airline business,
other things that I've just been absolutely blessed to do,
being a professional speaker now
for more years than I want to admit,
you know, over 30 years being able to do that.
So it is incredible,
but I've also been faced with, like everyone else,
tremendous adversity that comes with that.
You know, one of the things that I've been faced with
just a couple of years ago
was being diagnosed with a very, very nasty form of cancer,
a double-hit B cell lymphoma,
and it is a very bad prognosis.
So I had to understand that once I was given that,
I had the option of mentally being in a position
where I could say, okay,
well, I will either feel sorry for myself,
fold, freeze like a deer in the headlights,
or I could have an attitude of,
okay, what can I control and what can I do next?
And look, regardless of who you are listening to this,
we all have adversity and we've overcome that.
It may be in a love relationship,
it may be financial, business, family,
and God forbid, health.
When you're faced with that, so many people,
they feel sorry for themselves, they freeze.
What we have to do is,
as best as you can, remain optimistic.
It is scientifically proven.
One of the common threads amongst the most successful,
but not just successful,
happiest people that are there is optimism.
And the other is gratitude.
You know, I've always done this.
It's in my book, my number one best-selling book,
Money in the Streets, right behind me on Amazon.
And in that book, I talk about this before my cancer diagnosis.
I wake up every morning and I literally say out loud
all the things I'm grateful for
because it sets your mindset.
It allows you to be from a point of gratitude.
You'll see opportunities better.
You'll be more joyful.
You'll be able to withstand bad news when it happens.
But what I decided to do is, when I had my chemo,
it was the most rigorous.
It's called EPOC-R.
And each one of those letters stands
for a different poison, drug that they give you.
It's devastating.
But what I had to endure was six rounds.
Every three weeks was a round, six rounds of it.
I had to actually have a bag that I carried with me
strapped to me with constant infusion.
I still have my port here, which you can kind of see.
I still have my port, which for five days constantly.
And nevermind the way you feel, but you think about that.
But what I decided to do is I decided to say,
okay, what can I control?
And that was my attitude.
And I remained joyful.
I remained positive.
I didn't say, I want to be miserable.
Whatever time God gives me, I want to be happy
for those periods of time,
because that's what it's all about.
So whatever the adversity people are facing,
think about the fact that, look, time is really limited.
You get something like I've been diagnosed with,
you really realize your time is limited.
And I went through all of that chemo.
And you know what?
I remember the day it ended, August 2nd, 2024.
I was with my family, no hair, no eyebrows.
And we took pictures outdoor.
There was a rainbow and this and that.
I was like, oh, it had to be a sign.
It's over, this, that.
Only to find out when I did my PET scan
that all that chemo and it didn't work.
Okay, doc, what do we do next?
That was my attitude.
It wasn't to crumble.
It wasn't to give up.
It wasn't to fall apart.
What's next?
What are we going to do?
And by the way, never missed a day of work.
Never had it where I was just wrapped up in a ball.
Always productive.
Went out, even with the bag around me.
Went out to dinner.
Next step was radiation.
Did 10 rounds of radiation.
It wasn't easy.
And that didn't work.
Okay, doc, what do we do next?
It was CAR-T.
And CAR-T is something that is space-age.
They take your T cells, which is supposed to combat the cancer.
They program them and then put them back in you.
And that is a very difficult procedure to go through.
You know, they wanted me like monitored every day
for cytokine responses and this and that.
Thank God I made it through that.
Only problem is, is that it didn't work.
Now you start to worry about and run out of options.
But thanks to the positive attitude I had,
thanks to the fact that I kept going out and doing things,
it's just because of the grace of God.
I was able to meet Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiam through a contact.
And he has Immunity Bio in Los Angeles.
He owns part of the Lakers.
He owns the LA Times.
And he has created this drug, Angtiva,
which through good fortune, I was blessed enough
to be able to get on a clinical trial.
And I've helped many other people now get on that.
And miraculously, that drug put me into remission,
which I am still in today.
I'm very, very grateful for it.
Now you celebrate quietly,
but hopefully this remission will be durable and continue.
But I, you know, obviously this is through God's grace,
but I believe so much had to do with optimism,
gratitude, remaining positive,
and staying focused on what could I control
and what can I do next?
Because that's the only way it led me to this.
So whatever obstacle, if you're listening,
that you may be going through,
that is the best way to get through it
and the best way to get positive results to the other side.
Now, Barry, how did you learn this,
to have gratitude and joy and this optimism
and move along, don't give up?
Well, you know, there are so many influences in our lives,
you know, and so many people deserve credit
for having that type of knowledge
that we gain and experiences.
So I try to always be a student.
You know, I try to always learn
and I watch how others deal with situations.
So I've learned a lot.
I'm fortunate that I get to be good friends
with Tony Robbins through speaking.
We do a lot of events together.
I speak to a lot of, and you know,
a lot of the things that Tony teaches
has to do with being grateful
and having this optimistic mindset.
I mean, I've always kind of had a little bit of it,
but you really need to cultivate it.
And I think that people believe that, you know,
well, that's not me, I can't, you can.
There's nothing you can't do.
There's nothing you can't change.
And I think it is very, very important
because really what we're all trying to do
in this life is just be happy.
I mean, really, that's the goal, right?
We just want to be happy.
It plays such an important role.
You know, we have to remember
that we want to have financial goals
and we should pursue them.
You need them as part of happiness.
It is, you know, secondarily achievement goals.
And you have to pursue those
because you need to be moving forward.
You need to, you know,
if somebody would say describe happiness
in a single word, it's progress.
You know, if I were in a position
where I needed to lose 20 pounds,
if I lost seven, I'm not in my goal,
but I'm feeling happier.
Progress equals happiness.
So you want your achievement goals.
But there are a lot of people that achieve a lot
and are pretty successful financially too,
but they're still unhappy
and they're missing fulfillment.
And fulfillment for most of us,
that comes from being service to others,
doing something meaningful
to have an impact on others, to help others.
Exactly what you're doing, right?
My friend, you're doing that.
You're living it.
You're embodying that being of service to others
and adding value by bringing people
that can deliver a message
that hopefully can resonate and be helpful.
And I hope that my message today
was able to do that as well.
Thank you so much, Barry.
This is very inspiring.
It was great to have you on, Barry Habib.
Please come back in the studio
and meet with us.
And we'd love to hear some updates from you
in the near future.
Oh, it's absolutely been a privilege to be with you
and I thank you greatly.
Tell us what you think
about this conversation with Barry.
And what do you think about mortgage rates?
And right now, would you buy a home?
Make sure to tell us in the comments.
I'm Siamak Korami.
This is Market Insider.
We'll see you next time.