Home Prices Set To Slide 30% | Nick Gerli

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All data now points to a recession in housing, notes real estate analyst Nick Gerli.

He sees prices grinding downwards next year, as sellers start capitulating.

The silver lining?

Housing is starting to become more affordable again in certain markets.

For a firehouse of data showing the true state of the housing market right now, watch this video.

#housingmarket #homeprices #realestate

0:00 — Introduction & Current Market Characterization
1:48 — Demand Depression Worse Than 2008
3:00 — Inventory Rising; Supply No Longer Locked Up
3:53 — National Prices Flat vs. Double-Digit Local Declines
4:24 — Markets Already Down Most (Austin, SW Florida, Phoenix, Denver)
6:18 — Are These Corrections a Preview of Broader Weakness?
8:42 — Bifurcation: Booming Markets (SF, NY Area, Chicago)
9:44 — Twilight Analogy: Stars vs. Dimming Markets
10:25 — Reventure 2027 Price Forecasts by State
11:35 — Colorado Inventory Surge & Affordability Math
13:30 — Debunking the “Low Inventory Is the Only Problem” Narrative
16:41 — Slow Grind vs. Recession-Triggered Faster Decline
17:40 — Seller Delusion & the Fading 3% Mortgage Lock-In
19:22 — Share of 6%+ vs. Sub-3% Mortgages (National & by State)
22:28 — Full Forecast Map: Declines in South/West, Gains in Northeast
23:58 — Why Illinois & Chicago Are Forecast to Rise
27:24 — AI, Agglomeration & the Return to Legacy Tier-1 Cities
31:32 — Apartment Rent Growth: Winners (SF, NY, Chicago) vs. Losers
33:37 — Fortune 500 Concentration Supporting Legacy Markets
35:07 — Manhattan Hotel Rates & Relative Undervaluation
38:09 — Manhattan vs. U.S. Home Value Multiple Over 30 Years
41:06 — Condo/Co-op Risks in Manhattan vs. Florida
45:19 — Demographic Cliff: Boomer Aging, Low Births & Future Supply
50:01 — 75+ Homeowners vs. Younger Rentals by State & Metro
58:45 — Implications: Housing as a Weaker Investment Going Forward
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Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
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