Last-minute Changes, Reports and News ahead of Bills vs Vikings

In their last game, the best defense in football got run all over. The Detroit Lions ran the ball 39 times against the Minnesota Vikings defense and finished with 230 rushing yards. Jameer Gibbs had 153 of those yards by himself on 23 carries. It's the only game Minnesota lost all season, and the Vikings still only gave up 19 points. But tonight, the Buffalo Bills and that vaunted offense come into town with their shot at that defense and they have the blueprint now of exactly how to do it thanks to the Lions, the problem is Brian Flores has sent extra rushers on 73.6 of opposing dropbacks this season, the highest blitz rate since the league started tracking it about 10 years ago the Bills have two linemen who stand in front of that blitz on the left side Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson who are both questionable in this matchup Both teams are 6-1, and they have never played each other on Monday Night Football before. So who breaks first? The offense that scores more than anybody else in the league, or the defense that nobody can score on? It is going to be an electric matchup, and if you are as excited for the game as I am, leave a Go Bills in the comments and let me know. Now, Buffalo is scoring 33.3 points a game. The most in the NFL, and nobody else is even at 31 points per game. They lead the league in yards, too, at 393.1 per game. The Bills have scored 30 or more in five of their first seven games to start the season. And every time they've hit 30 this season, they have won the football game. Their only loss to New England in October came in a game they scored 26. They're also second in the league in rushing at... 148.4 yards a game, and that matters for where this game is going. On the other hand, Minnesota is only allowing 13.3 points per game, the fewest in the league, and the next best defense is almost... two whole points behind them? That mighty Chicago offense scored only three points on Minnesota back in September. Now, put those two together and you've got a 20-point gap between what Buffalo usually scores and what Minnesota usually gives up. Now, the Vikings, they win ugly because they have to. Their own offense is 26th in the league in scoring at only 20 points per game. The over has hit on five of the Bills' first seven games. Meanwhile, the under has hit in six of the Vikings' first seven. Minnesota wants a slow grinding game that results with scores in the teens. Meanwhile, the Bills have been playing in track meets with scores resulting in the 30s. But there is one team that has cracked this Minnesota defense, and they didn't do it through the air. Through their first six games, the Vikings were allowing 97.8 rushing yards a game. Then Detroit ran for 230 in one afternoon, more than any team had run on them all year long. It was already Gibbs' third game of the season with 150 rushing yards or more this season, so this is one of the best backs in football playing at an elite level. But even Detroit's backup, Sione Vaki, ran for 65 yards on 11 carries. That was also the game Flores blitzed the most. On 89.7 of Detroit's dropbacks, a single game record. Every extra man Flores sends after the quarterback is one fewer defender waiting for the running back on the second level. And James Cook is built exactly for that job. Cook had 707 rushing yards this season and he's averaging a little over 100 rushing yards a game. He's averaging 5.1 yards a carry and he's run for a touchdown in six straight games now. His best day of the year this year was when he ran for 154 yards against the Chargers. Against Baltimore, it took him 21 carries to get to 80 yards, so it won't always look as pretty, but the Bills keep running it anyways. They ran it 41 times that day against Baltimore and won by 26 points. And you can't forget about Josh Allen. He is a part of that rushing attack too. He ran for 121 yards against the Rams. Back in October on Monday night. So if Cook gets his 20 carries, Flores has to pick between attacking Josh Allen and stopping the run. He cannot do both. The one thing Cook does have to clean up, though, is keeping a hold of the ball. He's lost two fumbles already this season. Against an offense this bad, a short field off a turnover is an easy way for Minnesota to score and get back in the game. So every one of those runs starts behind a left side that might be missing its starters, though. Deion Dawkins has a rib injury. Alec Anderson has an ankle injury. And neither one has practiced on either Thursday or Friday. Dawkins is the left tackle. Anderson is the left guard. So they line up side by side on Josh Allen's blind side. So if both of them are sitting, Buffalo is looking at starting two backups next to each other against the most aggressive defense in the entire league. The Vikings get pressure on 46.4% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Andrew Van Ginkel is playing out of his mind. He leads them with six and a half sacks and Dallas Turner is not far behind with six sacks of his own. As a team, Minnesota has a whopping 25 sacks in seven games and Flores isn't backing off either. Just two weeks ago, he blitzed on 85.2% of dropbacks against the Colts. On one third down in Detroit, That's right. Flores sent. Eight rushers and dropped a defender late into the exact spot Gibbs was running to. And of course, it resulted in a sack. And that's exactly how Flores and this Vikings defense beat you. You never know who is coming and who is dropping. The good news is the Bills, the offensive line, has only allowed 74 pressures this year, the third fewest in the league. And Allen has only been sacked 13 times all season. Allen grades fifth. in the league against the Blitz, according to Pro Football Focus, so he's seen every look that Flores can possibly throw at him. He put it best this week. He said it's not even how much they Blitz, it's how productive they are when they do Blitz. A Blitz that doesn't get home, leaves somebody open, and Allen is averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt, which is a hundredth percentile number. So that's the bet that Flores and the Vikings defense is making on almost every snap. And real quick, if you are watching this before kickoff and you're not subscribed yet, hit that subscribe button. We are less than 100 subscribers away from hitting 3,000 on the channel. So if you want to stay up to date on all Bills content just like this, go ahead, hit subscribe so that you don't miss a thing. On the other side of the ball, the Bills will not see Kyler Murray in this matchup. Murray has a hamstring injury and Kevin O'Connell Called it a week-to-week injury. The timing hurts Minnesota because it seems like Murray was just starting to heat up. His passer rating was 89.7 or better in each of his last four games. He threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns in that loss to Detroit. Now, Carson Wentz takes over. But the Bills shouldn't exactly treat this like a gift. If anything happens to Carson Wentz, the next man up would be Max Brosmer. But Wentz has played in two games this year, and the Vikings have won both of them. He came off the bench in that season opener and threw three touchdowns against the Packers to lead a comeback win. Then in Chicago the very next week, he started once again, and the Vikings won that one 9-3. Plus, he hasn't thrown an interception in either game. Kevin O'Connell sounded pretty sure of him this week. He said, my expectation is that Carson is going to go out there and play really well. The pressure is real on Wentz and the Vikings as well. Well, the NFL trade deadline is. Tomorrow and Minnesota's quarterback situation is one of the main talking points of this deadline. Even so, this offense really isn't that scary. Minnesota is 29th in the league in yards at 279 yards per game. Outside of the opener, the Vikings have not scored more than 23 points in a game all season. The Vikings did add a name on Sunday, though, moving Odell Beckham Jr. up from the practice squad to the 53-man roster. Nobody in that building, though, is confused about where the ball is going to go. Wentz said it himself personally this week. He said, just get him the rock. He's as good as I've been around. Of course, he's talking about Justin Jefferson, and Jefferson is the whole plan for Minnesota's passing game tonight. The Bills have to answer him without the safety who started six games for them this season. C.J. Garner-Johnson was suspended one game for spitting at Raiders players, and the Bills released him on November 3rd. He sat out of the Baltimore game on that suspension, so tonight is the Bills' second straight game without him out there. And the first one went about as well as it could. Baltimore finished with 68 net passing yards. Now, it was an undrafted rookie QB, but they managed... 144 yards of offense the whole entire game. Lamar Jackson threw just one pass that day, and Joe Vigna took most of the snaps. Davison Ebbinosen was very impressive, though. He picked Vigna off his first interception of the year. But tonight is a different test. Because of Justin Jefferson on the other side. The last time Jefferson played the Bills, he went nuclear. He caught 10 passes for 193 yards. And of course, that's the game with his ridiculous one-handed catch on 4th and 18 that we all remember so well. Minnesota, of course, won that game 33-30 in overtime in Buffalo. The Bills' last trip to Minnesota went the other way. A 27-6 win in 2018 where Josh Allen... Shocked everybody and showed what he was capable of. Now, Damar Hamlin is expected to start at safety in C.J. Garner-Johnson's spot. He had five tackles against Baltimore. They also brought back Tredavious White, and he is on the practice squad as of October 19th. He's a veteran corner who is still working his way back up to the 53-man roster. So for now... Depth is the worry. All they really have left back there is defensive back Jordan Hancock, and he is questionable in this game with a hamstring injury. So the best help for any secondary is a pass rush that gets home. And luckily for the Bills, Greg Rousseau is that guy. He already has seven sacks this year. Minnesota's line gave up three sacks in each of the two games Wentz played in. So the Bills, they don't need to shut. Jefferson out completely. They just have to make sure that they are tackling him and bringing him down. If Wentz has to throw it all night to keep up with the Bills offense, that's the exact type of game that Buffalo wants to play. We already know Minnesota is going to be loud. Adrian Peterson is getting inducted into the Vikings Ring of Honor at halftime, but the Bills are projected as three-point favorites. So here's my three keys. You gotta get Cook his carries, at least 20 carries. Second, the line has to make sure to keep Josh Allen clean. And third, they gotta grab the lead early so that Wentz has to beat them by throwing the football. So here's my pick. I think that the Bills are going to win this one 27 to 17. They're gonna run the ball like crazy. They're gonna slow the blitz down and they are going to make Wentz and the Vikings offense chase them for the lead. And here's why. Detroit showed the crack with 233 rushing yards on the ground. If they can do it, Cook and Allen are certainly capable of replicating that as well. But there is some doubt, like we said, Dawkins and Anderson, both questionable in this matchup. So if Flores gets to the Bills and gets to Josh Allen early, then we are looking at the Bills playing from behind and potentially losing to the Vikings once again. Wentz cannot win in a shootout. Minnesota's offense, like we said, is 26 in the league in scoring. So I would have a tough time believing that this Vikings offense can keep up with the Bills. But let me know what you guys think. Who are you taking in tonight's matchup, the Bills or the Vikings? Leave your score predictions in the comments below. And make sure to keep it right here on Bills Digest. We will have a live watch-along coming your way for the game starting at 8 p.m. So stay tuned for that. Enjoy the game tonight. As always, thanks for watching, and of course, a very big Go Bills!