This is a DISASTER... Major Patriots updates

Adam Schefter just dropped a bombshell report on A.J. Brown's knee injury that could furthermore keep him out this week, and he's calling it a potentially career-altering injury now. On Wednesday, Brown was once again a no participant in practice, listed with an ankle and a knee. Drake May, of course, was a full participant. Now, the Patriots did just beat Miami 24-19 without him. But this is a disaster, and you have to go back to one of the sentences the Patriots said before they ever even traded for him. They moved to first and a fifth-round pick for this guy, and the Patriots, well, they've looked like it with him on the field, but without him, we'll see. Now, first of all, it starts with the disaster of how little we have actually seen him this season. A.J. Brown has played in three of the Patriots' eight games, and he's missed in five. That's less than 40% of the games, and it's the Patriots' best receiver by reputation, watching from the sideline for most of the year. Week 1 against Seattle, high ankle sprain in the third quarter, injured reserve, at least four games per chapter. That's the part people forgot. The ankle took him out for a whole stretch of games. Week 2 through 5, it wasn't even the knee. He came off IR on October 17th and played the Jets and the Bears, and then on Wednesday, October 28th, he couldn't finish practice. Head coach Mike Fribble says the knee and ankle are separate issues, and he wouldn't say how serious the knee is. Think about what that means. Two different injuries, two different parts of the body in the same eight weeks. Now, if you want every single Patriots injury update the second it drops, make sure you hit that subscribe button. We're currently at 14,277 subscribers, and I'm going to try and see if we can reach 15,000 here within the month. Now, he missed Thursday and Friday of that week and didn't travel to Miami. Of course, the Patriots ended up winning anyways. Across the three games he didn't play, he has 101 receiving yards, which is ninth on the team. So the disaster isn't exactly what he's done on the field. It's the fact that you've bought a sports car and now you're watching it in the garage every single week. You still got it, but you're not being able to drive it and that's the biggest problem. And the reason that matters goes back to before he played a single snap in New England. Before we get to that, a big matchup this weekend for the Patriots, but the AFC East is still up for grabs, and right now on Couch, the Patriots are at 24% to win the AFC East, while Buffalo is at 77%. Now, Couch is today's sponsor, and of course, on Couch, you're training directly against other users, not the house like a traditional sportsbook. You're buying yes or no contracts on the outcome of events across sports, politics, or even the weather. Now, for example, I still think the Patriots can win the AFC, so I'm going to trade $80 on them, and a payout will get me $316.45. If you're interested in making this trade or trying out our sponsor in Calshi, use the link in the description or in the pinned comment. And when new users sign up with the code DIGESTNFL and trade $25, you're going to get an extra $55 instantly. Thank you to Calshi for sponsoring today's show. Now, here's what hurts about all this. The Patriots knew about the knee. Patriots executive Elliot Wolfe confirmed the team knew about Brown's degenerative knee condition before they finalized the trade with the Eagles. Back in July, Vrabel said the team was very confident in where Brown was physically. So the team obviously did its homework. They signed off on the knee, and they made the move anyway. That's a choice, and it's a choice that only looks good if he can play. Now, buying a house is great, and the inspector tells you the foundation looks a little old. You're still going to buy it, but you can't act shocked if something goes wrong. Well, that's kind of the thing here with A.J. Brown is you knew there was problems, but at the end of the day, if those problems arise, you can't be mad or frustrated, but it's a disaster nonetheless. And right now, there's still no official diagnosis, no announced tear, no single play where it happened, just a knee that, quote-unquote, flared up on a Wednesday. Which is the scary part. When nobody can tell you what it is, nobody can tell you when it ends. And that's why Schefter's wording lands the way it does. Potentially career altering. Tom Ekerin wrote today that Brown is not in working order and it's hard to say when he will be. Rabel asked about the long term and said he focused on today. That's a coach telling you he doesn't have an answer. So let's find out what's really at risk here for New England. Because when A.J. Brown is right, there are very few players in the league like him. In 2022, with the Eagles, he caught for 1,496 yards in 2023. It was 1,456 yards. Since 1999, there have been 93 seasons of 1,400 or more receiving yards in the league, and Brown has two of them. It's roughly three a year across the entire league, so when Brown does it twice in a row, it's a rare thing. In 2023, he ran off six straight 100-yard games, which is three to eight. That's the longest 100-yard streak in the league since 2022, and the next longest in that span is four. That's the player the Patriots traded for. That's the player Schefter is now saying might not ever be the same. And the quarterback who needs him is Drake May, who has almost 2,000 passing yards this season. In Miami, he was pressured 50% of his dropbacks and Miami blitzed on just one of the 26. So May is getting hit even when the defense isn't sending extra rushers and the guy who's supposed to bail him out, not even on the field. So you'd think the offense falls apart without him, and that's where this kind of gets a little strange. You see, while it is kind of obvious that A.J. Brown on the field does more good for the Patriots than bad, it is kind of interesting when you look at those statistics. With Brown out, the Patriots are 4-1 with wins against Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Las Vegas, and Miami, and losing just one game against Jacksonville. Now, of course, that one loss, a 35-6 loss in Jacksonville, it's the only game all year the Patriots scored fewer than 10 points. With him on the field, the Patriots are 1-2. A 13-10 loss in Seattle, the game that he left, a win over the Jets, and a 30-24 loss at Chicago. Points per game without him, 24.8. With him, 20. Now, that's not proof that he doesn't matter, obviously. It's three games, one of them cut short by an ankle, and two of them as he came back. It's a small sample size. But it tells you something. This team found a way to win while he was gone. So it's not going to be a disaster this week, and maybe it's not a disaster for every single week that he's gone. But the fact that you made the move in the trade, and now you could have a potentially career-altered guy, that's the problem. Now, that's what makes this one hard to call. The score says the Patriots, they can win without him. And his resume says they shouldn't have to. Again, they beat Buffalo 29-26 on October 4th in Buffalo with Brown on IR. And Buffalo, that's the low loss they have this season. And the standings are still tight. The Patriots are 5-3. Buffalo is 6-1. So you're just one and a half games back at the moment. So what does this team's road actually look like? Well, right now there's nine games left. Green Bay on Sunday. The Lions in Munich on November 15th. Then you get the Bison and the Chargers on November 29th on Sunday Night Football. Then comes the stretch that decides it. Buffalo at home on December 6th. Minnesota four days later on December 10th. And Kansas City on December 21st. That's three games in 16 days. If Brown isn't ready for that, well, guess what? You're going to start to feel it there. And Buffalo matters more than any of them. The Patriots have already beat them once with the win on December 6th. That's a sweep, and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the division. After that, it gets friendlier on paper. The Jets on December 27th, Denver on January 3rd. A tough game there, for sure, but then you get Miami to close out the season on January 10th in Foxborough. Right now, the Jets are 2-6 and the Dolphins are 1-6. That's the three wins between them. So the schedule gives New England a path. It needs the best version of the team in December, and that's the version where Brown is on the field. And he wouldn't have to be perfect for any of it. He'd just have to be out there, and I think that's the whole question, is can he even do that? So there's about three versions this can go. Version one, the best case scenario. He's back this Sunday against Green Bay. Schefter's report says that's in doubt, but you never really know. Version two, he misses Green Bay and the Lions on November 15th. Then the Patriots get their bye week and don't play again until the Chargers on November 29th. So three weeks from this Sunday. And, you know, if you give UConn four weeks, it's the same length as an IR stint. Then he's back for that Buffalo rematch at home on December 6th. That's the version where the season is saved. That's the division right there. May is healthy, the offense is rolling, and Brown is the extra gear. That's the best version of this Patriots team. Version 3 is the one Schefter's warning about. It isn't weeks. It's a player with a degenerative knee, a team that knew, and a contract that runs for years. In that world, the question stops being how the Patriots replace 100 yards. It becomes what a team does when it spent real resources on a receiver whose body won't let him be the player that we paid for. So, is it a disaster? This week, probably not. They won without him in Buffalo. They won without him in Miami. And I think the offense, they can score more points even when he's not on the field. So, not a disaster in that light. And that 24% on Kaushy is where a market sits today, before we know what the knee is, whether we learn this week or expect it to move. The disaster is the question mark. The Patriots are betting a division on a knee nobody can diagnose. And if Schefter's right, this isn't a week 9 problem, it's a career problem. Is A.J. Brown's knee one week problem or a career problem? Let us know what you think down below. Comment W for this week and comment C for career. We appreciate you watching. We'll see you here on the next show. Peace out.