This has Avalanche fans SERIOUSLY concerned...

This has Avalanche fans extremely concerned. We're now over a month into the season. The Avs took a beating last night to the Columbus Blue Jackets 7-2. Everything was pretty awful. This video, however, has less to do with the team itself and more the teams around them. Specifically in the Central Division, I'll touch a bit on last night, but I wanted to take a closer look at external factors affecting this team. Before we get into it, I want to remind you guys to smash that subscribe button if you haven't already. It really helps the channel a lot. If you have, why thank you. We appreciate it. But let's get into it, though. Through 16 games, the Avs are 9-6-1 for 19 points. That's a 100-point pace over 84 games, which isn't great. It's good, but there's a difference between good and great. We've seen great from this team at certain points this season, but overall, they've had a lot of moments that prevent the season from being like that, i.e., last night. But like every other team in pro sports, you're competing with other teams. In the case of the Avs, I spoke about it in the preseason, but a worst case scenario for this team is the teams around them get better. And I think that's what we're seeing here, at least this far into the season. The Minnesota Wild are 11-3-3 for 25 points in 17 games. That's 124 points through 84 games. They're currently top three in the NHL in points, and they're getting help from everybody. Their stars are showing up. Kaprizov has a league-leading 15 goals in 17 games, along with 11 assists. Hughes is inserting himself in the Norris conversation, as he usually does, with 22 points. Boldy and Ericsson are nearly a point a game. Every single D-man on the team owns a positive rating. Meaning they're getting contributions up and down the lineup on the back end. Jesper Fasth has been literally the best goalie in the NHL so far this season, with 12.1 goals saved above expected. And in a modern league, where star goalies are not playing as much as they used to, it's a tandem league. He's played in 15 of 17 games. Get this guy in the Hart conversation. The only blemish on this team right now is their fourth line, Ryan Hartman and them on, like, they haven't been great. But they are missing the Foligno. This is a defensive team like usual. They have awesome special teams as well. Michael McCarron, you'd never think would have made a good 2C, but he's been better than Brock Nelson. And I'll get to that a little more later. Leading the West without Faber and Spurgeon is pretty scary. Now, you might have been thinking about the point I made previously. Of how the top talents are showing up. Yes, the Avalanche All-Stars are showing up. McKinnon, Makar, Natchez, even Taze, Lekanen, Fitt and Kadri too. Don't be fooled, the Avs lead the NHL in goals with the Oilers. Over four goals a game, you can't really ask for more than that. Something that is very unlike the Avs of yesteryear is being top 10 in goals allowed. Massive difference is the special teams. They're currently 17th in both power play and penalty kill. With the personnel this team possesses, that is completely unacceptable. I'll talk about this a little later. Sorry, a little later. Next team in this division, looking a little too good, are the Utah Mammoths. In the preseason, I said I really liked what they did with their roster over the offseason, and now we're seeing it come to fruition. Worst case scenario is this team leapfrogs the Avs, which they have already begun to do that. Again, it's happening so far. Utah is 10-6-0 for 20 points through 16 games, a modest 104-105 point base. But I feel like that doesn't tell the whole story. Everybody outside of Nick Schmaltz has an expected goals for percentage of over 50%. Now, lucky for Schmaltz, he's part of the best power play in hockey so far. I mean, look at these numbers. It's just their entire first unit ranked four to eight league wide, and it's backed up that by their results, they have a 36% conversion rate on the power play, which is actually second in the league, but in terms of like chances generated and just dominance, they are first. Their current downfall is their goaltending. In all situations, they have an 864 save percentage, which is simply inexcusable. Vemala hasn't been good for some time, and I guess Kosa is still young, but my word, there's something need to change there. The team's expected save percentage on unblocked shots is .931, which is top 5 in the NHL. However, their actual save percentage on unblocked shots stands at a 911. That's the biggest gap by far in the NHL, so it's definitely a goalie issue rather than a defensive issue. I'm a guy that believes that goalies can become hot at any point, so it's a lesser priority, but this is literally the difference between being a contender and being a champion. And I didn't forget this is an Avs channel. They're actually third last in that stat I just mentioned. .932 expected save percentage on all unblocked shots, yet they have a .920, which is bottom 10 on its own, but it's the gap that makes it more concerning. And it's unfortunate because the Avs can't really make a move on goaltending right now because Wedgewood and Blackwood have been reliable before, but they're just not showing it so far. What this stat tells us, though, is that the Avs team defense is really good this season. And these guys have been good before. It's just a matter of time, right? Next up, the Stars. That's one more team in the way of the Avs. They're currently tied in points with 19 with us, but they've played one less game. This is actually the only team of the three Avs have played this season, which was a home and away a few weeks ago. The Avs came away with three of a possible four points, losing the one in a shootout. Both games were 3-2, so it's about as tight as you could get. Other than those two games, honestly, I think the Stars fanbase should be a little more worried than the Avs fanbase at this point, while they are ahead of the Avs in the standings at this point in time. I'm not as impressed by what I see from them versus in the past, but it's still impressive. For starters, their expected save percentage ranks 23rd in the league at 5-on-5, which tells us that for most of the game, they could be exposed on the back end. That said, their power play version of this stat sees them rise to second in the league, and thanks to Jake Odinger, their actual save percentage on the penalty kill is tops in the league. The reason I'm a little skeptical is that goaltending is always weird. Yes, I've said this before. If the team defense is poor, it's more likely to be costly for a team than if they have poor goaltending. Teams don't just decide to play good defense all of a sudden. It's a team effort, whereas the goalie is just one guy. Utah and Colorado are in the opposite boat of the stars, where bad goaltending is ruining their stellar defensive play. Another weakness for the Stars is that they haven't been able to draw penalties. They're dead last in the NHL for that. And I could see why. A lot of their core doesn't quite rely on speed, which often draws penalties. And then, of course, they got guys like Ben who are just really old and don't got it anymore. Now, all of this is said. The three other teams I've just spoken about. Minnesota Wild, Utah Mammoth, and the Dallas Stars, they're all ahead of the Colorado Avalanche in the standings as of this day, November 4, 2026. I've listed a major weakness for the Avs already, that being the, let's be real, atrocious, atrocious goaltending. Scott nor McKenzie have helped out, but there's a couple other guys I want to single out. First one is a guy who I said in a prediction video that he would take a step back this season. That guy is Brock Nelson, who I already hinted at not being great earlier, saying Michael McCarron has been better. And it's true. Brock has four goals and five assists in 16 games, which is just not good enough. He had three points in game one of the year against the Kings. All of those were power play points. Since then, six points in 15 games and zero on the power play. Avs have the 17th best power play in the NHL despite that. He's getting nearly 18 minutes of game of ice per game. That's not nothing. He's been a nothing burger over the last few weeks, and it needs to be said. He's slow, too. There's another guy we've got to talk about, too, though, and I'm sure it's crossed some of your minds already because he's such a likable guy, and he's on track to break a certain record this season, Brent Burns. He don't got it no more. He's second on the team in shot attempts per 60 and almost first at 5v5. Like, how are you almost taking more shots than Mac per 60? But yeah, he's 11th in shots on goal per 60 and bottom four in points per 60. He's taking shots. It's not resulting in anything. He's wasting everyone's time. He's the last among Demon on the team in expected goals against per 60. He's just not doing anything right now. He can't. He can't produce, he can't drive play, he's just shooting and hoping it goes in, and then he can't defend in his own end. Are we seriously going to keep this guy in the lineup until February 15 when he breaks the Ironman streak record? This is McKinnon and Makar's prime man. You can't be wasting these years. Dominic Fensore for the Eagles has 9 assists in 11 games so far. He's practically begging to be called up and given a shot. Brent Burns is in the lineup because he has a record to break, not because he helps the team. It's like a burden. If you enjoyed this video, make sure to leave a like down below. Let's get 42 likes on this one. Half of Burns' number. If you agree or disagree with anything I had to say, tell me what's up in the comments. This has been Dominic Presta for Avalanche Digest. See you at the next one.