MAJOR Move incoming... Dodgers linked to NEW Target | Dodgers News

Bleacher Report just sent a pitcher to the Dodgers for $110 million. Bleacher Report just sent a pitcher to the Dodgers for $110 million. Tim Kelly has Trevor Rodgers, eighth on his free agent list, five years, $110 million with an opt-out after 2028. And in that same piece, he also has Tarek Skubal going to the Mets. So the Dodgers are told to take a lefty who had a 1.81 ERA in 2025 and a 4.03 ERA in 2026. So which one are they actually buying? Well, let's take a look. First, let's be clear about this. Bleacher Report predicts the team in years and money. It's a prediction, not a signing right off the bat. No reporter has tied Dodgers to Rodgers this winter. This is Kelly's pick. In his own words, it will be the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Baltimore made Rodgers a qualifying offer on November 2nd, $23.15 million for 2027, and he has until November 17th to decide. So why would the Dodgers even look at him? Because they have a hole where the inning should be. In 2026, Blake Snell made nine starts. Tyler Glasnow made 13. That's 22 starts between the two of them. Rodgers made 30 by himself, a career high with 169.2 innings. So what exactly are they getting? Because there are two Rodgers. To understand how strange this is, you have to know where Rodgers has been. In 2021, with the Marlins, he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, a 2.64 ERA, over 25 starts and 133 innings. Then it fell apart. In 2022, a 5.47 ERA across 23 starts, and from 2022 to 2024, Rodgers made just 52 starts with a 5.09 ERA. In 2024, he went from the Marlins to the Orioles, and he had a 7.11 ERA in four starts there. Then 2025, a 1.81 ERA, right back to the pitcher he was supposed to be. That's the pattern, though. Up, down, up. And now the Dodgers are being asked to bet on which way it goes next. Which is exactly Kelly's argument. In his words, In free agency, the goal should be to pay for future production, not past production. He says at least one team will convince itself that the best is yet to come from Rodgers, and he thinks that team will be LA. In 2025, he had a 1.81 ERA across 18 starts for the Orioles, six homers allowed, 109 and two-thirds innings. Then 2026 happened where it was a 4.03 ERA. But that 2025 ERA hit something. His FIP that year was 2.82. Now, FIP is what your ERA should look like based on only strikeouts, walks, and home runs. So his ERA was 1.01 runs better than it should have been. 2026 went the other way, a .403 ERA, but a .345 FIP, with 19 home runs allowed and 169 2/3 innings. In 2025, every ball he gave up found a glove. In 2026, it found a gap. So the real Rodgers is a 3.45 FIP pitcher, not a 1.81 ERA ace, and that's before the part where he changed after the All-Star break. Now if you made it this far, hit that like button, as this month's best video has 336 likes, and I want to see if we can get this one to beat it. Through his first 17 starts of 2026, he walked 31 hitters, 90 1/3 innings, and had a 4.48 ERA. In his last 13 starts, 3.52 ERA with 8 walks in 79 1/3 innings. His strikeouts went from 6.87 per 9 to 9.98. But here's what didn't change. The home runs. 10 in his first 17 starts, 9 in his last 13. The fix was walks and strikeouts, though, not the long ball. And look at how it got here. In May, a 10-31 ERA over four starts. In June, a 2.05 ERA. And in September, he had a 2.53 ERA with 36 strikeouts and two walks in 32 innings. And it wasn't a ballpark thing. At home, he had a 3-7-6 ERA, and on the road, it was a 4-3-6. Baseball Savant ranks his walk rate and his chase rate in the 92nd percentile in 2026. So he's a command guy. He doesn't hurt himself. He just doesn't overpower you. His fastball velocity is in just the 38th percentile. That's the arm Tim Kelly wants the Dodgers to pay for. So is the price right given how he has been up and down throughout his entire career? Well, here's where everything gets a little complicated because the Dodgers, they don't need to buy Rodgers. What they need is to get back Tarek Skubal. We know about Skubal. Came over from Detroit this season in 10 starts for the Dodgers. He had a 2-6-1 ERA across 70 strikeouts and 62 innings. Over the whole 2026 season, his ERA was 2.72 with a 2.51 FIP and 186 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings. Rodgers had a 4.03 ERA and a 3.45 FIP. You don't close that gap. Scooble is the ace. Rodgers becomes Plan B. Kelly has Scooble going to the Mets on a nine-year, $387 million deal, which is $43 million a year, which, of course, would be a record. He says the Dodgers and the Mets are the likely top two suitors, and he quotes ESPN's Jeff Passan. The explanation is Scooble will sign before the December 1st lockout, and Andrew Friedman isn't tipping his hand. On the plan, he said, quote, we're still wrapping our arms around our off-season plan and strategy and timing of things. So Scooble's answer could come first. If he goes to the Mets, Rodgers is the emergency button. And the rest of that rotation isn't cheap or healthy. Snell has paid $31.3 million a year through 2029, and he made just nine starts. Glasnow is at $27.3 million in 2027, and he made 13. So a $22 million a year guy, Rodgers, would cost less than Snell, Glasnow, or Yamamoto, who was at $27.1. Kelly's deal is five years and $110 million, which is right at that $22 million mark. Joel Ruder, also of Bleacher Report, has him at four years and $70 million. Bowden has him at three years and $64 million, next to Kelly's five years and $110 million. So Kelly is the high number by a lot. The comparison he leans on is Zach Wheeler, five years and $118 million from the Phillies in 2019, which became one of the most team-friendly deals ever. Wheeler turned down a qualifying offer, too, and the Phillies lost a second-round pick to sign him. And the Dodgers' 2027 luxury tax payroll is $390 million against a $247 million line, according to Spotrac, which is about $143 million over. So $22 million a year is not what stops the Dodgers. They've stopped caring about that line a long time ago. The part that matters is the opt-out after 2028. If Rodgers is great, he walks after two seasons. If he isn't, the Dodgers are stuck with three more years. And $22 million a year is just under the $23.15 million qualifying offer. So for five years, instead of one and a draft pick, the Dodgers would pay less each season. And Kelly's reason for it is the draft pick. Any team that gives one up to sign him won't want to be guaranteed only one season. After his 30th, they said, after his 30th start, he said, quote, I finally get a say about where I want to go. And also, to be honest, I would love to be back here. Orioles president Mike Ellis three days later wrote, we would love for him to stay. But Rodgers had said several times that the Orioles never approached him about an extension. Ellis didn't answer that one. And here's one twist. A month ago, a different Bleacher Report writer, Joel Ruder, had Rodgers staying in Baltimore. His verdict on the list, re-signed. Now his reason, given the glaring need for starting pitching, the O's can't afford to lose arguably their best arm. So the same site has him in Baltimore in October and Los Angeles now in November. That tells you on how little everyone actually knows right now. And the Dodgers wouldn't be alone. Susan Slusser of San Francisco's Chronicle wrote the Giants could be in on him if they are serious about contending, and Bowden has the Pirates as a fit. So what has to be true for $110 million to work? Three things. First, the walks stay down. 8-13 starts in the second half. Rodgers had 31-17 starts in the first half. Second, the home runs come down. He gave up six and 109 two-thirds innings in 2025 and 19 and 169.2 innings in 2026. Third, he stays in the mound. 30 starts in 2026 was a career high and he had never made more than 25 before it. If all three of these happen, Kelly looks like a genius. However, if one of them doesn't, the Dodgers end up paying $22 million for a year for a pitcher who only exists in a small sample. Ultimately, the Dodgers do need Ings, and Rodgers is a real 3.45 fit pitcher with a 92nd percentile walk rate, and at $22 million a year, it's a fair price. But he's not the answer in terms of losing Scooble. He's a No. 3 or 4 starter, and Kelly's pick only works if the Dodgers treat him as the second move, never the first. So if Scrubbs stays, then obviously he's off the table. And remember, what we don't know. Rodgers hasn't said if he's taking his qualifying offer. November 17th is that deadline. Would you give Trevor Rodgers five years and $110 million? Comment yes or no down in the comments section. And for now, guys, we'll see you next time. Peace out.