Jeff Passan Drops MAJOR Dodgers Report...

Jeff Passan just dropped a report with two words in it that Dodgers fans need to read twice. Most obvious. Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher on the market, is expected to sign before December 1st on the lockout. And the two most obvious teams to sign him are the Dodgers and the Mets. But here's what makes that sentence strange. Scouble was already a Dodger, right? So this isn't exactly a chase, right? It's a test. Can the team that spends more than anyone afford to keep the best arm it has ever rented? Let's start with the exact words, because the wording matters. Passan wrote that Skubal is, quote, far and away the best player in this class. And the expectation is that he will sign before the December 1st lockout. That's his expectation, though, not Skubal and Scott Boris's, Passan's. Nobody has said a word on the record from his camp, but Passan, well, he's the best insider in the game. The next line he had, the two most obvious suitors are the two teams with the highest payrolls in baseball, the Dodgers and the Mets. Now, let's read that again. Obvious doesn't mean the Dodgers made an offer. It means they have the most money. And of course, that's the whole case that we are trying to present. Now, the Cubs, they're also in on Skubal and badly want him. But Passan says they're skeptical about the price. That'll be well in excess of $300 million and potentially over $400 million. So the report is a clock and a price tag. And the clock is real. The old labor deal runs out on December 1st. But first, you need to know why Scooble is even on the market. Now, speaking of finding value in your market, let's talk about this video's sponsor, Otis Edge. If you're tired of the fake picks, the paid tipsters, and the money that you keep losing, well, stop guessing. Try Otis Edge for free. Six analysts, one subscription, one price that is less than a dinner out. Download the free Otis Edge app, and you'll get the free pick of the day every single day, plus a full library of free content, no card required. Become a subscriber and you're going to unlock six different analyst perspectives on every game. Daily Expert Picks and Otis Edge University, where you can learn disciplined betting strategies and bankroll management. Follow one analyst or follow all six. It's all included. Right now, use code DIGEST at checkout for 50% off for life. Yes, for life, as long as your membership remains continuous. Download the free app today using the links in the description as it's time to set yourself up for success because that's the Otis Edge. Now let's get back to Skubal. The Dodgers traded for Scubal on August 1st, sending Detroit's Zaire Hope, River Ryan, and Brady Smith. In his 16 starts before the trade, he had a 2.79 ERA and 116 strikeouts with just 14 walks. On the year between Detroit and LA, he's 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA, 186 strikeouts, and 158 1/3 innings, at least in the regular season. His walk rate is in the 99th percentile. Hitters chase his pitches more than 97% of the league. Think of him as a vending machine that will only dispense his strikeouts. And then October happened. The Brewers swept the Dodgers in the NLCS. Scubal took the loss in Game 1, going five innings, giving up two earned runs. Asked about his future, and he said, quote, I'm really not going to comment on my future. But ESPN's Alden Gonzalez says the sense is Scubal would love to return, but it's going to come down to price. L.A.'s got the first crack at him on a five-day exclusive window to re-sign him. As of today, no deal has been announced, so let's talk about price. So what exactly would the Dodgers be paying for? Start with the last three seasons. From 2024 to 2026, Scubal has 43 wins and a 2.42 ERA across 546 innings, along with back-to-back A.L. Cy Young winning in 2024 and 2025. His FanGraphs WAR over that span is 18. That's the best of any pitcher in all of baseball. His career line, 66 wins, 44 losses, a 3.02 ERA, and over 1,000 strikeouts in 925 and a third innings all in the regular season. This year, his FIP, which is an ERA that strips out the defense behind him, was 2.21. His ERA was 2.72, so the results, they weren't luck. In October, the Dodgers lost anyway, which tells you a rotation, even a great one, isn't the whole answer. Now the part Boris won't put on the poster. This year, Scubal had arthroscopic surgery on his elbow for bone chips and missed about six weeks. He came back and was better than before, a 2.03 ERA in July, but that's what you're signing for eight years, an elbow, and that's a lot of money. That risk is the reason this isn't as obvious as it sounds, a $355 million bet on one elbow. Scott Boras is reportedly aiming for $325 million. That's Yoshinobu Yamamoto's number. 12 years, the biggest guarantee a pitcher has ever signed. TSN asked a panel of 27 people, their average guess, 8 years and $355 million, which is $44.6 million a year. The record for a pitcher's yearly salary is $43.3 million, held by Max Scherzer, so of course he'd break it. Compare him to the last Dodgers ace. Yamamoto is $27.1 million a year. Schubot would cost $17 million more a season. And 21 of those 27 expect him to sign before December 1st, which matches Passon. One exec told ESPN, quote, The price will be huge, but I don't think he's touching $400. So the price is a given. The question is whether the Dodgers can pay it. And their books, well, it always seems like it's going to be a problem. The luxury tax line for 2027 is $247 million. The Dodgers payroll for tax purposes is $390 million, which is $143 million over, before Schubel even signs. The estimated tax bill on that is $61.2 million, and that is without a single dollar for Schubel. Where does it go? Mookie Betts, $30-plus million. Shohei Ohtani, $46.1 million. Teoscar's old money is gone, but Tucker alone is $57.2 million. Imagine a credit card that is already $143 million over the limit, and the bank calls you to say you've been pre-approved for another $44 million. Guess what? That's what the Dodgers are looking at with Schubel. And it gets stranger, though. The owners want a hard cap of $245.3 million, their first proposal since 1994. The Dodgers are at $390. A cap obviously would crush them, but the question is, will that actually be put into place? And if a lockout rewrites the rules, a payroll like this could be the first thing the owners go after. That's why December 1st matters so much. Here's the fair counter. The Dodgers aren't exactly short on pitching. Under contract for 2027 are Yamamoto, Snell, Glassnell, Otani, and Roki Sasaki. Snell cost $31.3 million against the tax, Glass now $27.3 million, Yamamoto $27.1 million, which is about $86 million for three starters. And Sasaki is on a $1 million estimate. Think of that like a free sample at Costco. That's actually the main course. So Scubeli isn't filling a hole. He's turning a very good rotation into one nobody wants to face in October. And that's the logic behind spending. The Dodgers paid an estimated $396.6 million to $398.6 million in tax payroll for 2026 and $417 million in 2025. They've been over the line for years, and it has never stopped them. The Dodgers are no secret to winning. They, of course, won it two times back-to-back before this season. Scubeli said it himself. It's hard to win the World Series, and this group led it back-to-back just a year ago. So a team that pays like this isn't going to stop for $44 million. The question is whether they go there for eight years. The Mets are the other half of passing sentence. ESPN's Jorge Castillo says they're considered the favorite to land the prize of this free agents class. They also missed the playoffs this year, so their need is louder than the Dodgers' need. Then the Cubs pass and says they badly want Scubeli, but they're skeptical. They can compete at those dollars, but will they actually want to, which is by, which is why Boras has leveraged two teams, one pitcher, one deadline, a lockout means no free agent can sign with a team. The last one lasted 99 days and ended in March of 2022. So the Dodgers have a month, sign him now or wait through a freeze that could last until spring and he might not even be there. It also freezes trades involving anyone on a 40-man roster. So if the Dodgers wait, they can't fix the rotation any other way. They're stuck holding whatever they have on December 1st. And the owners and players are far apart. The union says the owner's cap proposal would cost players more than $500 million. And Andrew Friedman said, quote, We have a tremendous amount of respect for him on and off the field. He did not call Scubeli, though, a priority. And ESPN's Jorge Castillo calls the Mets the favorites for a reason. Here's my take. Passing this report, it's not a bombshell about Scubeli being gone, it's just a warning, and obvious doesn't mean it's done. The Dodgers don't have to win the bidding. They have to win it in four weeks with a payroll that's $143 million over the line. If they don't, Scooble could be wearing a Mets hat by Christmas. If you've enjoyed this one, make sure you subscribe to the channel. It's free and it obviously really helps. But let me know in the comments section, should the Dodgers pay Scooble $44 million a year or should they let him walk to the Mets? Comment P for pay or W for walk and let us know down in the comments section. For now, we appreciate you watching and we'll see you next time here on the channel. Peace out.