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NOAA and NASA have forecasted a G1 minor geomagnetic storm for July 2nd and 3rd, 2025, attributed to a C5.55 solar flare from June 28th. The speaker questions the cause, suggesting that a coronal hole or atmospheric dissipation is more likely responsible than such a weak flare. Additionally, a significant increase in Earth-facing sunspot groups indicates a surge in solar activity for July.
James Kaufman, Will News Report today, July 1st, 2025.
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Ladies and gentlemen, NOAA
and NASA are both forecasting a geomagnetic storm for July 2nd and 3rd.
The amazing part here is they're saying it's
been generated by coronal mass ejection.
There was a C5.55.
That should scare everyone.
Now, here is the warning itself.
A G1 minor geomagnetic storm watch has
been issued for the 2nd of July UTC
due to the arrival of a coronal mass ejection
that left the sun on the 28th of June.
Now, there is a coronal hole that's Earth-facing right now.
I will show that to you in just a moment.
Anybody.
that's been watching the sun for years would swear
that any geomagnetic disturbance or
geomagnetic storm would be caused
by the solar winds coming from the now facing coronal hole
not a C5.55 solar flare on June 28th
this tells us our shields
are just about dissipated
Completely, ladies and gentlemen.
Anyone could perhaps justify a G1 geomagnetic storm
from the coronal hole that's directly
earth-facing currently, but it's very hard
to justify a G1 geomagnetic storm from a C5.55
solar flare. Here is a current picture of our sun.
I'd seen this before I saw the warning.
And I said, well, wow, that's a decent-sized coronal hole.
We may see a geomagnetic disturbance or maybe a small geomagnetic storm
due to the solar winds created by that coronal hole or loss of canopy.
But that's not what they're saying at all.
NOAA and NASA are saying this coronal hole has nothing
to do with a geomagnetic storm,
not disturbance that they predicted for the second and third.
Let's take a look at that solar flare.
Before we do that, I'd like to mention how active the sun looks.
Look how many sunspot groups there are.
We're going to take a quick look at those in just a moment,
but we haven't seen 11 Earth-facing sunspot groups
at one time in some time.
Now, here we go.
We looked at the seven days of solar flaring using our GOES X-ray flux.
We wouldn't really have any thoughts about
this C5.5 causing a geomagnetic storm.
That's hard to believe, hard to swallow.
We've definitely dropped down to a high B baseline,
but this will be the first time
I've seen a C5 solar flare create a geomagnetic storm,
which tells us only one thing.
Our atmosphere is dissipating very quickly.
We can also determine that this solar flare wasn't very strong
because it will take four to five days to reach Earth,
according to NOAA's forecast.
Now, there is a chance their forecast could be wrong.
We all know that there's a great chance their forecast could be wrong.
We'll take a look at their space weather.
prediction center in just a moment,
but let's look at the sunspots that are earth-facing first.
Now, what we're looking at here, guys,
is 11 earth-facing sunspots, with more that probably
need to be named, or might have already been named,
coming around the limb. Unfortunately,
I do not know and cannot tell y'all which sunspot group
Generated the C5.55 solar flare because I've been out
of touch for a few days, but my guess would be AR4122,
and that would just be a guess, obviously based
on its complexity and its current position on our sun.
Now, all of NOAA's equipment is pointing
to the forecasted G1 geomagnetic storm.
This doesn't happen often and see on the second here,
which will really be starting tonight at 7 p.m. and going
into tomorrow, they have two geomagnetic storms,
two impacts, July 2nd and then again on July 3rd.
When we go down into space weather,
Prediction Center, they actually have it forecasted out like
that with two separate impacts.
I cannot explain to you why they have two separate impacts,
the small C5.5 solar flare.
Headed over to the SWPC Prediction Center,
the Space Weather Prediction Center,
they actually have it forecasted just like the warning
and just like the KP index forecast,
which is a first in such a long time.
This could end up hitting us this evening, so please point
your cameras to the north and take a picture and see if there's enough
for a Borealis, or even to the south, an Australis Borealis.
Remember, your camera
and your phone can pick up things the human eye often can't,
so it's always a good idea to use your phone just to make sure.
But that's the only way we'll really know
if we're being hit with space weather.
Now, they
also have solar winds down around 400 to 450,
a bump to about 450, going back down to 400, and that's with that.
Coronal Hole has been earth-facing since yesterday,
it would be good timing to have an uptick
in solar winds around that time period,
but we're not seeing this on any NOAA or NASA
forecasts.
We'll keep our eyes open,
I would expect stronger solar winds in 400 to 450 km per second, but
Let's wait and see what happens.
Now, with all that said,
I think the biggest thing we should take away from what we've
seen today on our sun is all of the sunspots
that are back all of a sudden after having
this type of month here with only, well,
it looks like 79 sunspot groups, 137 predicted.
We're going to jump right back into the curve
or perhaps above the curve.
i.e. currently we have 11, maybe more sunspots that are earth-facing.
So after a truly perplexing June with very few sunspots,
almost half of what was predicted,
it looks like the sun's going to reawaken for July.
With that said, God bless you and yours,
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