Texas Senate Race Drives Election Prediction Markets

to give you kind of an idea where Kalshi and Polymarket stand tonight on really the big vote here, which will be on the House and on the Senate. As you said, somewhere between it looks like 93 to 95 percent as of right now trading for the Democratic House to get flipped. And then the interesting one and the one that most people feel will get flipped also. is the Senate, but that's a little bit lower. It's between 73 to 76 percent. So the question is, is that what race should we be keeping an eye on that could potentially flip the Senate? Let's forget about the House here for a minute because it does look like that's a foregone conclusion. So as Joe said, it's not the outcome you're looking for. It's getting in and out of different pricing, but there's not a lot of margin there for the House if you're looking at 93 to 95 So if the Senate's at 75. It looks like the race that we'll keep an eye on here, and again, that'll be central time, so there's still an hour to go there, two hours to go actually there before we get a finale there. But the Texas and the Democrat, James Tallarico, trading approximately on Kalshi and Polymarket around 73%. He's going against Republican Ken Paxton. And naturally, the state of Texas, as one would imagine, usually gets Republican support. But tonight could potentially be a flip. And so if that does. Become a flip. I think that pretty much locks in the Senate as well. But I guess, Joe, my understanding isn't following this is that if the Republicans were to hold serve in Texas and somehow Tallarico was to lose to Paxton in this case, that could flip the entire Senate. So for us, that'll be the race that we'll be keeping an eye on tonight. Now, naturally, again, it is only 5:16 p.m. in the state of Texas because they're on central time. So we won't even have a finale there. But let's keep a close eye on that market because that could be the precursor to what happens later on tonight when we get the final outcome. And also, listen, the minute the news outlets are reporting one thing is going to happen, what happens, Greg, is these markets get ridiculously inflated. And this Talarico and Texas market is just that, because the reports and the polls have been coming out saying that it's going to Talarico. That's great. It may very well, but if there is one report. That comes out here that maybe these early returns, Craig, are not going towards Talarico. I can tell you right now, doesn't mean he doesn't win, but it just means you're going to be able to get him at a much better price than anything else. But keep in mind, most of these. Especially if they've garnered national headlines, Greg, guess what? They're already inflated. Because you and I both know what happens is people have run here to the prediction markets and they have been betting into this. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. It just means that... It's so overvalued at this point that we're looking for any bit of information, Craig, at this point that turns that back down, and then that's what we're talking about, buying the dip and buying low and selling high. None of us want to be holding a ticket at the end of this. We are looking to get in, and we're waiting for the market to readjust, and then we're looking to get out, Craig. That's it. We're not looking to hold on to anything, because I can tell you right now, Tulsi in Iowa, if you're going to hold a ticket when tonight is over, then you're going to have to wait until February until that's actually sworn in and works out for it. So if you're looking like us to be traders of I want in, I want out by the time I go to bed here tonight, then that's exactly what we're going to be doing. If you're holding tickets at the end of the night in a lot of these markets, You're going to have to wait until that actual winner and that outcome gets sworn in in February, which some people may not be aware of right now.