Analyzing final polling data in key Georgia races

Let's talk about some of the numbers that have gone into prognosticating our two big races, the governor's race and the United States Senate race. Joining us now, our really good friend, Matt Towery, who we appreciate very much. You being with us this afternoon, Matt, we know you're a busy guy. You're going to be in demand tonight on all the well, I say all Fox News Network to prognosticate these races. We know. It's great. It's great to see you. First of all, we wrote out a lot of elections together. My schedule is always the same. I do Fox Business, Fox. Network last night, and I'll be doing it all tomorrow night, but I always get election night off, which I love, because what it tells you is they're either going to beat me up or they're going to hail me as a genius tomorrow. So I get tonight to find out whether I'm going to be beaten up or be happy. Well, every election that you and I have gone through together, you seem to be spot on Not only in the polling data, but you're feeling. About these elections. And so I ask you, you pulled one particular race that you pulled the gubernatorial race here in Georgia between Bottoms and Jackson. It couldn't be closer. We're talking about a scintilla of a percentage point. Yeah. And a lot of that depended on turnout today. The Secretary of State's office at the beginning. And I keep up with all these states unfolding. The Secretary of State's office at the beginning said they thought the turnout today would be about 1.6 million. If that were the case, that would probably mean a Jackson win. Then they took it to 1.2, which would have been a Lance bottom win. Now they've taken it to 1.4, which takes you right to my scenario of a 50-50 race where somebody wins by maybe 10,000 votes. Yeah. And, and. The United States Senate race, Matt, has been quite another story. We've seen the polling vacillate anywhere between 10 points, which was really a few months ago, to coming down to sort of six to eight points, with a lot of ground for Mike Collins to make up in this race. It's always hard to beat an incumbent, but John Ossoff has been, I argued, all along in this race between when he ran in 2020 and today a much sharper candidate, all right? He's matured as a political candidate. Mike Collins, you know, is his own force to be reckoned with, but yet it's been really difficult for Collins to make up ground here in the polls. You know, I can remember a night, I think you were on the anchor desk with me back when Ossoff was running against The former Secretary of State of Georgia for congressional race, and he didn't win, but I said that night that I thought he had an incredible political future. This goes back many years ago, and it's because he's very skilled. He has the right style. He fits the Georgia that's changing. Mike Collins, fine guy, but they ran too folksy a campaign. I mean, you don't go into suburban Atlanta, even exurban Atlanta now, and say, well, I'm just an old truck driver. That's not what these suburban women and exurban women want to see. And so that was the wrong approach. And by taking that approach, they turned off too many of the votes they needed to convert. And then they had to rely on trying to get the old traditional sort of Trump MAGA rural vote out. And that just hasn't been strong enough for Mike to be able to overcome. Matt, I've heard political analyses over these past few days and weeks with many people saying that the Republicans are nervous about not only losing the House of Representatives, but the United States Senate. Is this going to sort of be the kind of night that a lot of the prognosticators are predicting in terms of this huge, they're not calling it a wave, they're calling it a tsunami on the part of Democrats in terms of the balance of power in Washington? Well, I appeared right after President Trump on Fox News last night, and I said a couple of things. One is the Republicans seem to always wait to the end to wage their campaign. They have a great closing argument, but they didn't get across their accomplishments in paid messaging in July and June. Now, arguably, they think that's too early. But when you're dealing with the media that is not always friendly to you, you've got to find a way to leapfrog over that. And that's been their problem. Now, I will tell you this, these New York Times polls and some of the other polls that came out showing blowouts in all these states, I can tell you right now, based on the ferocious voting today in Ohio, Michigan, Texas is a little bit marginal, but a lot of these other states, Florida, have massive early-day turnouts, much bigger than even Georgia. And I think that you're going to find these races are very close. We're not going to have this big, giant tsunami blowout where people win by 8 and 10 points. I'm not saying that the Republicans couldn't lose the Senate. That's entirely possible. What I am saying is that it won't be by these big margins. I think, once again, the insider advantage polls, Trafalgar, Rasmussen, will be more spot on. We had things very close. We didn't have a lot of Republicans winning, but we had it close enough that they could with a large turnout. And with this large turnout going on right now, sorry, that was the network. Um, I, uh, With that going on, I think it's possible that you could have some upsets. Ohio, I think, could go Republican. They don't think it's going to go Republican. I think Michigan could go Republican, which would be the upset of all upsets. And I think Iowa, they'll hang on to. So it's entirely possible you could still have a 50-50 Senate with the president, the vice president making. The decision and basically giving this, the Republicans still control, which right now the betting markets don't believe in, but I think it's entirely possible. All right. We know you'll be watching along with us. Wish you were here in the newsroom. I wish I was. I miss everybody up there. Yeah, we miss you too, so that you and I could pal around and watch these returns come in together. But we know you'll be watching down there in Florida. Hey, hey, hey. Save me a piece of pizza. I hope so. I'll save you a piece of cold pizza, Matt. Yeah, that's what it usually was by the time we got off the air. It was a lot of fun. I mean, it's a lot of fun talking to you this afternoon about which way these races are going to go. It's going to be close. And we appreciate your analysis. It's Fox 5. My heart's always with Fox 5. Thank you, Matt. Insider Advantage CEO Matt Towery. Appreciate it so much.