2026 Midterms: Will 'Blue Wave' flip Congress? Political analyst explains historical trends

Of course, it is Election Day, control of Congress and key races in New York and New Jersey. Well, on the line with us right now, we're going to get some insight from Professor Alan Sanders, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at St. Peter's University. He's joining us now to break it all down. Dr. Sanders, how are you feeling today? I guess this is, you know, this is it. This is what we've all been waiting for. We've been talking about this for months and weeks. How are you feeling this morning? Well, I feel great. I think this is a very important day. All election days are very important. You know, we talk about, as political scientists, checks and balances between the president and the Senate and the courts. But really, the ultimate check and balance are the voters and elections. And so this is a very exciting day because it's when the voters actually tell the governing authorities what they really think about what has been going on in the country. So this is the ultimate check and balance day and always exciting. You know, there's been significant turnout already with some of the early voting numbers. Democrats, of course, hoping for a wave. Some people have described it as a tsunami. But as you mentioned, the only poll that truly matters is the one that will take place today. Is turnout itself a clue about which party has the advantage at this moment, would you say? It can be. I mean, it's hard to read the tea leaves. Typically, people get motivated more when they're upset or angry than when they are pleased with what's going on. So one could make the judgment, possibly, that this is a reaction against Donald Trump and Republicans, but it really is reading the tea leaves. What I think is important and significant, because you mentioned whether this is going to be a blue wave or a blue tsunami, it's important to have a little bit of a historical perspective here. Historically, That is, going back to about the 1930s, on average, on average, the incumbent president The presidential party has lost 27 House seats and four Senate seats, 27 House seats and four Senate seats. So whatever the results are today, we can assess those results against what the historical averages are and get a better look at whether we're really dealing with a blue wave, a blue tsunami, or in fact, nothing at all. So it's important to keep those benchmarks in mind. And Dr. Sanders, we did see some problems up in Westchester County today. Obviously, this is New York 17, one of the races everyone is talking about already when it comes to the Lawler-Conley race. And it seemed to me Westchester County is actually one where... Conley would want to run up the numbers, sometimes sort of leans more democratic as opposed to the Rockland side of things where Lawler may want to run up the numbers. What did you make of sort of what we're seeing so far? I mean, obviously, Board of Elections saying, you know, this is a technical issue, no conspiracy here. But what did you make of sort of some of the complications we're seeing already? Well, you know, complications always happen in one form or another in various parts of the country and in various communities. So this is not unusual development. However, having said that, one has to wonder why there is these sorts of snafus. Was there not any testing of the machines? What are the actual snafus? What kind of planning was involved? This is a very competitive race, as you've pointed out. And so for these things to happen in that particular community or that That particular region is... But whether there actually are real shenanigans going on, we'll have to wait for the investigations. But certainly these things happen all the time in all elections, but it's particularly noteworthy that it's happening in one of the most competitive areas of the New York State electorate. Yeah, exactly right. And we do have some video coming in right now. This is happening live. Governor Kathy Hochul meeting with some voters here. She is with Nydia Velazquez, U.S. representative up in that Sunnyside, Queens district. Tyler, can you just turn up the volume here? Let's see if we hear anything. Is she saying anything to voters? Let's see what we can hear. Here, here. All right, so just obviously greeting some of the supporters there outside of this polling location in Queens. And so let's talk about the governor's race just for a second, if we can. Dr. Sanders, and again, talking with Dr. Alan Sanders, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at St. Peter's University. Professor, when we talk about the governor's race, some of the polls show a double-digit lead. In fact, a majority of them have shown this double-digit lead. What are you looking for in this race that might surprise you? Well, I think what we really look for in any polling is whether the polling is accurate. Certainly, double-digit leads is what politicians love to have going into an election, and Governor Hochul has been acting very comfortably, very much comfortable about where she stands and is running a sure-footed campaign. But we'll have to wait and see whether the polls were actually accurate. The problem with polls, of course, is that they tell you how people think at a particular moment, but they don't tell you necessarily how How they're going to act. There's a difference between what you think and then when you come down to actually making a decision how you're actually going to behave. Do you revert back to your traditional loyalties, to your traditional party loyalties, to your traditional philosophy, or do you act on what you're thinking should be the correct thing to do based on what your experience has been with the government for the past two or four years? So I'm always watching whether the polls are accurate. There's some concern. I'm concerned that, you know, in this age when people don't answer their phone or when they don't have phones, they have cell phones, that in fact people are acting in ways that — or they're saying that they're going to act in ways that they don't actually do when it comes down to the ultimate decision. So I'll be watching how accurate the polls were, both in New York and actually around the country. And just for anyone who's checking us out now, in the right of Dr. Sanders there on There on your screen, that is Governor Kathy Hochul, who has just arrived. At this polling location in Sunnyside, Queens, Professor Sanders, we appreciate you joining us. I do have one other question, though, before we let you go. We see Bruce Blakeman, we had Tyler, we had Bruce Blakeman a little earlier who was arriving, which actually is on our writer's desk, which we can't show right now, but he was arriving at a polling location. In the last presidential election, President Trump did something that surprised so many people, which was make some serious inroads in New York City and made some big gains. And it seemed like maybe there was an opportunity for the gubernatorial candidate who was going to come next to build on some of that. But do you get the sense that Bruce Blakeman did a good enough job of trying to do that? No, I don't think so. And I think he was hobbled by the Trump administration and Republicans in Washington. That is to say, the last election was also about affordability. People tend to forget that. People thought that the Biden administration had not done enough to make life more affordable for ordinary Americans. And so the Republicans swept in, led by President Trump, saying they were going to stop inflation. They were going to make things more affordable for Americans. And in fact, they did not do that once they got into power. They didn't do Didn't do much to address the affordability question and of course they had all kinds of policies that many people believe favored the rich and the powerful. And so Mr. Blakeman is running against the winds that propelled Donald Trump in the first place but that Donald Trump did not live up to. And so it's not surprising that he's running an uphill battle and it's not surprising really That Republicans are running an uphill battle because, again, the major issue. Back two years ago was affordability, and it continues to be the major issue that most Americans are voting on today. And Professor Sanders, just before we let you go, what's one thing, one result that you'll be watching most closely tonight? Well, I think what we really need to focus on is what is going to happen in the Midwestern blue, I'm sorry, the Midwestern red states and the Southern red states. Clearly, the Democrats are hoping to make inroads in places like Texas and places like Kansas and Iowa, places like South Carolina. And so we'll have to see whether, in fact, the Democrats make headway. Headway means not just winning an election, but actually reducing the loss. So we'll have to see. See how well Democrats really do in those Midwestern and Southern states, because it could herald a possible change in the way those regions vote in the future, not just in this election, but in the future. Once you make inroads, you have a sort of pathway to try to enlarge that, whether you come close to winning or whether you actually win an actual election. So I'll be watching very closely at what happens in those states. All right, Dr. Sanders, Professor... I'm not a doctor. I keep saying doctor. Professor Alan Sanders, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at St. Peter's University. You speak like a doctor, though, because I feel well informed and I feel better already about what I should know and should not know in politics. Thank you so much, Professor. We appreciate your time. My pleasure.