Final sprint to Election Day; expert perspective

Counting down to election day right here in Battleground, Wisconsin, just a little bit over 17 hours until the polls open at seven in the morning and a lot at stake and a lot on your ballot if you do plan on voting tomorrow. I want to bring in political analyst Craig Gilbert joining us now, also recently retired Washington bureau chief for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Craig, first question, is it weird to be on the other side of this now? As we head into election day tomorrow. Yeah, although it's not that different for me. I mean, I'm following this through an analytical lens like I did as a reporter. But if anything, from a more distant perspective, big picture perspective cuz you're sort of watching things from the outside and this is a big picture election. I mean, we're looking at an election where the national environment is playing a huge Yeah, talk a little bit more about that, because that was one of the questions I wanted to get to. Are you finding that national factors such as the war, tariffs, things like that, are those the things that are going to get people to the polls? Yeah, I think that's the history of midterms. And we have a president who's been at the center of our politics now for about a decade. And so to the degree that the political world revolves around him, his popularity or unpopularity is really shaping the environment. I think if we get a big blue wave like some people are talking about, I mean, that's gonna be the obvious Thank The wave doesn't quite materialize, then I think we're gonna come to the conclusion that some local factors or factors specific to the candidates in the campaign took precedence. If Tom Tiffany wins the governor's race, I think the explanation is gonna be some combination of he ran a better campaign, you. he had more resources, and the polling was off. But if it is a blue wave, I think there won't be much mystery about why. Yeah. And you're talking about this blue wave. I know Democrats highly motivated about possibly having that trifecta of controlling the governor's office, state Senate and the assembly. But how realistic is it that they are able to flip one or both chambers tomorrow? It's quite realistic. I mean, if you look at the history of midterms, the out party tends to gain ground and we have more competitive maps for the legislature in the last two years than we had for a decade and a half before that. So the maps make. The control of the legislature in play and the political environment makes control of the legislature in play. So it's absolutely realistic if what we're seeing is a swing, the kind of swing toward Democrats that the polls are capturing. And with that shift, if there is a possible shift in legislative control, what does that mean for some of the major policy gridlocks, if anything, that we're seeing right now? Yeah, I mean, we've had eight years of divided government. And so with a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature, whatever Tony Evers, the governor, wanted to do, there was a severe limit to what he could do. And just like there was a severe limit to what the Republican legislature could do. So if we have unified control, you think back to when Scott Walker was governor and you had a Republican legislature, he had a pretty impactful tenure as As governor, I mean, just one example, Act 10. Collective bargaining for public employees. I mean, one question will be, for example, if the Democrats have the trifecta, are they gonna try to undo some of the things that Scott Walker did, including Act 10? So that would be a pretty momentous thing. Yeah, there's definitely a lot at stake tomorrow right here in Wisconsin, then across the country as well. As the first returns start coming in tomorrow night, what counties, what areas are you going to be looking at to give us a good idea of where things are going to fall and where the results are going to be? Yeah, so I mean, if it's a nail biter of an election, you know, you'll. I think I'll be pouring through precincts and counties looking for clues. I would expect, based on the polling that Marquette has done, that Charles Franklin has done, I would expect Tom Tiffany to do even better in some rural areas than Scott Walker did eight years ago. But I would also expect David Crowley to do a lot better in some blue areas than Tony Tony Evers did in the first Trump midterm, which was. Eight years ago, if it's more of a wave, then you're gonna know it's gonna show up everywhere to some degree. The Republican margins in very red places won't be quite as big and the Democratic margins in very blue places will be even bigger. So we'll know pretty quickly whether it's a really close race or not and whether it'll be an extended evening or like we're very used to. Or a quicker conclusion than we've seen in the last eight years. And I'm glad that you brought up some of the Marquette polls. I don't have the specifics based on the geographical parts, but I do have the among likely voters, at least for the race for governor. So I'm gonna try to bring this up here right now. Looks like we do have it, yes. So as you can see, I mean, this was done October 14th to 22 was the survey. I think The checkmark might be a mistake because obviously this is just the survey here that we are seeing. Crowley, 51% leading over Tom Tiffany. I guess talking about the polling here, for some people who may not know, does this mean that it's pretty set in stone? Because some people might look at this and be like, oh, well, Crowley's going to win. But talk about polling and these results and then also what actually happens on election day. Yeah, so no, it doesn't mean we know the outcome of the election. I mean, I mean, we've had some misses in the polling. They've tended to come in the Trump era in presidential years when the polls in Wisconsin and elsewhere kind of undercounted or understated Republican support. The polls have been pretty accurate in midterm elections. So So, so. it's hardly a foregone conclusion that the polling is wrong. I mean, Seven points is a big margin. So I think it would be a surprise to most people if it were, if David Crowley went on to win. If it was by that kind of margin, we're used to very close races in Wisconsin. So people shouldn't take the polling as utterly predictive. I'm It does tell you that the political environment going is really challenging for Republicans. And so it tells you that, again, a candidate like Tom Tiffany has to go to kind of overperform in his campaign. ahead In order to overcome that environment and it also tells you what some of the fault lines and get are in the electorate. I think we're gonna have a big urban world divide. I think we're gonna have a big divide between secular voters and religious voters. started. And in our polling, we're showing that some of those dividing lines are even bigger than they were four years ago or eight years ago. I feel like reflecting a little bit on this entire cycle from the primaries and now that election day is tomorrow for the midterms. Anything that surprised you or any highlights that you're going to take away from this cycle specifically? Well, it's unusual, very unusual to have a president In a midterm with these kinds of job ratings, Joe Biden became very unpopular, but he kind of hit his low point at the end of his term, not in the midterm. So, I've been doing this for a long time and I've been through cycles before where the environment just sort of turned. For one party or another. But again, we're so used to close races in Wisconsin. I mean, the last two races for Senate, the last three races for president. You know. One of the most recent races for governor all decided by one point. Or less, so that has been like the new normal in Wisconsin. So it's gonna be really interesting tomorrow whether we fall more into that pattern or whether we get a more sort of decisive result than we're used to seeing in Wisconsin. I think whatever happens, I think you gotta be really conservative about drawing sweeping conclusions about what this means about the future direction of the state politically. I think we're a purple state for the long haul. Yeah, it, it will be a exciting and hopefully not too long of a night, but we know we'll both be prepared either way. If it is got my coffee ready to go just in case Craig, anything else you feel like is important for people to know before we do head into election day tomorrow. Yeah, I mean, we've talked about the state races for governor and the state races for the legislature. There are a couple of House seats in Wisconsin that are fairly competitive in their makeup. In Western Wisconsin, the third CD, and in Southeastern Wisconsin, the first CD, the incumbents Republican Brian Stile in Southeastern Wisconsin and Derek Van Orden in Western Wisconsin. So there's been a ton of money spent in those races. They're both perceived as being in play. By the parties that are spending that money. So again, something else to keep an eye on as nationally we have a battle for control of Congress. Wisconsin could figure into that battle. Craig, looking forward to talking with you more after we do get the results tomorrow. We appreciate you coming on and get some rest in case it is a long night for tomorrow. I hope I'm not jinxing that by saying it. We appreciate you coming on. Absolutely.