Solar Flares/ Filament Eruption/ Geomagnetic Storm September 4th - 5th 2025!

James Kaufman will news report today. The following will be a space weather update for September 4th and September 5th, 2025. We'll start out taking a look at the KP indexes. We have four KP indexes around the U.S. And these tell us basically what type of solar winds and plasma are striking Earth at the ground level. We'll start out with a Boulder KP index. We see that yesterday there was a slight disturbance for three hours. We're moving on to the Fredericksburg KP Index, and we see that really nothing has occurred, no space weather has occurred in the last two days. Now let's move on to the Estimated Planetary KP Index, exclusively used by NOAA and NASA, updated for well over a million dollars last year. It is the latest and greatest. And it says that no solar winds or plasma, or at least significant solar winds or plasma, have been hitting Earth over the last 48 hours. Finally, the College KP Index, our most sensitive index, it must be tuned to be sensitive, shows that we had six hours of a geomagnetic storm yesterday, three hours of a geomagnetic disturbance, and through ours of a geomagnetic Now, I did look this up, and each index is not just measuring the solar winds and plasma where they're located. They're all on a network of sensors stretched across the U.S., and basically, each of them will read the data differently and give us different results. i.e. the college index regularly being the most sensitive and the estimated planetary index being the most up-to-date, i.e. revised last year. Had an overcharged GOES X-ray flux. Taking a look at any flares that have occurred over the last three days, we had a strong sea flare here, a C9.33. That happened right about 5.30 UTC time on the 4th. Which really would have been about 10.30 on the third central time. Following that, we had an M-class solar flare, an M1.06. And that occurred right about 1.45 UTC time. Now, that's going to be about 7 a.m., 6.45 a.m. central time. yesterday morning. Now this morning UTC time we had another M class solar flare and let's see the second M 1.44 that occurred right after one UTC time which means it occurred about 8 p.m last night. Now there has been some additional bumps in the road but none of these flares are significant. I'd also like to mention that we had a filament eruption Around 19.15 or around 2.15 Central Time yesterday, and I will show y'all that as well, but it didn't end up showing up on goes. All right, next we'll take a look at STO AIA-171 Angstroms. This is for all of the fourth and what we have of today on the fifth so far. We're going to see both the C9 flare right there. happening from this sunspot group here. Then we're going to see the M1 flare happening from that same sunspot group right there. And then what we're going to see, I guess that is the second M1 flare. And then right here, that's the filament eruption that I warned you all about. That should have ejected a coronal mass ejection. There's no sunspot group there. There was a film that interrupted. And it was spectacular. All right, so all we have left is that last M flare, and that occurred, let's see, right about now, that's the film eruption, I'm looking for that last M flare, and there it was, right there, from that same sunspot group the other two were generated from, we'll take a look Look at that, and nothing has occurred, nothing substantial, our sun. That filament early this morning, i.e. late last night central time. That was great information from STO. So the C9 flare and the two M flares were all generated, it appears, from 4207, a beta gamma sunspot group. And then we had the filament eruption that wasn't associated with the sunspot group. The big explosion was the one just after 1.30 UTC time, right about 8.30 last night central here in the U.S. Currently, we have a 10% chance of having an X-class solar flare, a 55% chance of having an M-class solar flare. That ship has sailed in a C-class baseline that we've been running for some time. Over at HMI Intensegram, we see that we have 10 sunspot groups. that are earth facing although a few are about to go around the far limb like 4197 here and the other other ones with it 4201 4202 and 4199 this is a little bit dated so they're a little bit further around the limb and they appear here you can see that 4207 generated Every one of the three flares, the C9 and the two M1 and 1.4 flares. that we saw boy did we nail that visually and the rest of the sunspots are simple sunspots though 4206 looks like it could be coming more complicated all right this is our original core core one goes 18 best instrument we have right here and they're about to get rid of it they've said because of this fabulous one that they've put up watch out you know what all right we're Alright, we're going to do it manually. I think we are. All right, there was an impact here, so I'm going to do it manually. Well, we'll have to. See what we can see here. Lots of rocks moving through the picture here. There was another impact of core, a large CME probably out the back side. There's a rock there moving through. There's a rock here moving through. Everything is moving from left to right here on the screen, and we're seeing all the action. Watch that again. Notice that Lasco C2 here is in sync with it. You can't see anything on it. It's useless. Completely useless. What we can see here is, well, all the action, I guess. The very large CMEs we can see on Lasco C2 there. And you can see the rocks so well on this. See the rocks. See the bigger rocks here. So that is core. They're going to get rid of that on this. All right, taking a look at GOES solar ultraviolet imager. This is GOES-19, 195 angstroms. 4207 has just pumped out another flare here. I guess it was not significant. It didn't show up much on our GOES X-ray flux. You can see that coral hole is directly earth-facing. That's the sunspot group that's been, well, has produced. All three of the decent-sized flares over the last two days. All right, Lascaux C3, pretty much useless. Unlike Core 1, it goes 18, personally. You can see that there are some chromase ejections, and none of them look to be Earth-facing, although that filament eruption sure looks like it would have generated a chromase ejection that would have been inbound to me. And it does look like NOAA might be agreeing with me. What you're seeing here is the solar winds that are about to start here. They're looking for a G1 geomagnetic storm. This would be starting right about now, 4 p.m. Central, and last until about 7 p.m. Central, which would be the end of the day, UTC-wise. And this would be 7 to 10. And, well, 10 to 1. Looks like we have a break, and they're not expecting more winds from Coral Hole. My guess is these two G1s over here on September 7th are the filament impact that we saw happen right around 1900 on the 4th. All right. Taking a look at the backside composite of our star. A few sunspots, O2-4 being the largest and the furthest behind. This is the Earth-facing portion of the composite. None of these are very dangerous to me. There's O2-2 and O2-3. This is a day and a half old, so they've all moved slightly to the right. All right, headed over to the brand-new WSA Inland Solar Prediction Center, Space Weather Prediction Center. Today is the fifth, the fifth. They're thinking that we might see solar winds based on that coral hole, and the solar winds are down here on the 5th. They have them ramping up, starting the day at 400 and going up to about 525. I would have expected them to go up as high as maybe 600 kilometers per second, but as you can see, their forecast goes to about 525, and this is the end of the day here. On the 5th, going into the 6th, and that looks like about the peak there of solar winds. We'll see what really happens in just a moment. They also have plasma. It looks like they have it going from about 6 to about 3. 6 to 3, and we've got, let's see, 400 to 525. 6 to 3, 400 to 525. All right, over to our D region absorption prediction center. As you know, we have no solar flares to look at. We've got constant radiation wherever the sun is shining. That's about it. I'll pull this through to save us some time. No significant flares except for the one last night, central time, i.e., just at 1.30 UTC time today on the 5th. The day again is over tonight at 7 p.m. central time. The UTC day is here. All right, over to discover real-time solar wind. This is our satellite that's about 1 million miles, they claim, above Earth, in between Earth and the sun. That's 93 million miles away. Our shields are down, we can see here in pink. Plasma, instead of going from 6 to 3, went from 1 to 6, although we have some really high readings in here. Like this 52.02 and this 22.95 and then this 23.21 and this 16.43 and you can see a lot of them. See how the solar wind goes down there. It's going to be in blue or purple. That looks pretty real. That plasma pushed that wind down like it should have. Same thing happened here. you have heavy plasma there should push that wind down and that's exactly what happened so this looks real they're each only about two minutes long i have no idea what caused them you can also use our temperatures which kind of line up with that type of anomaly as well regularly we have mild normal temperatures all day long solar winds well They're gonna start out at 450. They got that part right. We just never have moved to the 550. So we'll be waiting to see if these are really going to go up. And that would be, well, that would be quite an increase, 100 kilometers per second. Check our work on the older version. Wow, it looks identical to these same anomalies here. Two minutes each is identical. Everything looks identical. So these are probably good data. It's a whole different satellite. This is ACE, real-time space weather. Chills are down here. Plasma started out at 1, ended up just below 10 in the 6 range. And we have three or four anomalies here. And we're backed up by both temperature and solar wind speed. No one can pretend to know what those are. Here we have solar winds all the way down at 400. I believe maybe that's where they were supposed to start here. It's the first of the day here, further about 400, and go up to 550. That has not occurred yet. We have not been impacted. We're still within that window of impact between 4 and 7 this evening, central time here in the U.S. All right, taking a look at our Sun STO HMI Magnetogram. White over black, white over black, black over white, everything looks legit. This is 4207 and this is the area that's been giving us all the heck right here. Generated all three of the significant or not so significant flares. Strong C flare and the two weaker M flares. This is from 6.06 this morning, central time here in the U.S. Soho, 284 angstroms. You get a good look at that coal hole. Definitely earth-facing. I don't know why they think that the solar winds are going to stop in two hours. They should continue on for two days, in this man's opinion. And that is 4207, giving us all the trouble there. These are the departing sunspot groups that we need to keep an eye on. Because after all, our connection to the sun through the Parker spiral is to the outgoing limb here. So I've taken a look at density, wind speed, and pressure, and everything is coming from behind planet Earth. Planet Earth is the little white and black ball here moving to the left 67,000 miles an hour orbiting the sun. Also, moving at you, being pulled by the sun at about 544,000 miles an hour, while the universe is supposedly expanding at 1.3 million miles an hour. So everything, well, should be showing up on the bow here, but instead it's showing up on the nighttime side of our planet. Again, the planet is moving to the left in these artist's renditions. Over to the European Space Agency's euphoria. They have been doing a terrible job here. Today is the 5th. They're not showing any plasma for the day whatsoever. I'm here at zero. Beginning of the 5th and they're showing solar winds going from about 350 to about 280. Terrible job by the ESA again. What have they been doing for months? They've been dropping the ball. Week after week and nothing's changed? Are they even working anymore? It's really hard to say. And finally, looking at the planets today, we have the moon coming around for its blood red moon. The total lunar eclipse. And that's going to be on the 8th and 9th. So coming into that very quickly here. 8th and 9th right there. We also have a geomagnetic connection between Earth, Pluto, Earth and Saturn, Earth and Sirius, Earth and Neptune, and Earth and Eris. So very very interesting stuff. We're going to have a lineup here and we talked about the 9th and 10th with some possible uptick in solar activity, although we could have an uptick in solar activity on the On the 7th and 8th, because of the moon lineup, there's really no planets in play. Here we have a good lineup of the moon, Saturn, Neptune, and the sun here. But really, even more so, look, we get a geomagnetic connection to Uranus. And on the, I guess, the 20th, 21st, and 22nd, let's just say we have hell to pay. It's going to be a huge uptick in earthquake activity and a huge... Uptick in volcanic activity. Scientists are saying that we should have twice as many volcanoes going off next year as we do this year, which leaves me baffled. And that's going to be a three-day window, 20th, 21st, 22nd, where we could really get busy. That's with solar activity, earthquake activity, and volcanic activity. With that said, in summary, guys. We've got a couple of small M flares, nothing significant. We do have that filament eruption. If it did create a chromis ejection, well, we don't see it because our new Core 1 is a piece of garbage, although it looks like they have predicted a G1 storm for the 7th, and I'm guessing that they predicted that from the filament eruption that we saw at 1900 on the 4th yesterday. God bless. Please share and subscribe. And always remember that anything's possible in Bizarro World. God bless you guys.