Tariffs on Canada become an election issue in U.S. midterms

You think it's easy, but there's such love in these all over the country. There's love in the rooms like I don't think anybody else has ever experienced. But I've done it for one very simple reason to stop America hating communists from taking over the United States Congress. We're not going to let that happen. President Trump at yet another red state rally, that one on Friday night, with the midterms just days away. And that is where we will begin our American Roundtable this week. With us today, Josh Wingrove, the senior White House correspondent at Bloomberg News, and Melody Barnes, executive director of the Karsh Institute of Democracy and a former director of domestic policy for President Barack Obama. Hello to you both. Hello. Good to be with you. Josh, I do want to start on the question of Canada. Usually foreign issues don't play into presidential or American politics at the ballot box. This year seems to be a bit different with the trade war and the cost of living being equated with one another. Yeah, that is true. On the one hand, it's just sort of part and parcel with the concerns over affordability, which are... You know, rearing their head in every single race across the country, including, of course, in some of those key Senate races by states that border Canada or do a lot of trade with Canada, including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska. On the flip side, though, I'm not sure how much how many eggs I'd put in that basket if I were the Canadian government or a premier, because it's it's not so much that voters are rallying to the side of Canada or the side of the EU or the side of other countries that have been hit with these tariffs. So much so that they're just simply outraged over prices. And so where this goes from here, I think, remains really murky. What incentive the president has to turn around and do trade deals, I think. remains murky. But, you know, we'll know a lot, obviously, on Tuesday night, sort of whether this was sort of one straw on the camel's back in an overall night for Republicans. It looks, looks, according to polls, and we could have a whole panel about whether the polls are going to be right this time. There's been some interesting warning signs sort of pan out. If you're looking sort of the Coles Notes version on Tuesday, if Susan Collins wins in Maine or if Mike Rogers wins in Michigan for Republicans, those are great signs for them. On the flip side, if Democrats take away Maine and hold Michigan, given there's a lot of swirling factors there for them in their party, then it looks like it would be a great night for them. And, Melody, let me pick up on what Josh is saying there, because there are some signs, but I think as he's well pointing out, we may not have the actual verdict, particularly when it comes to the Senate, on what all of this means come Wednesday morning. If Donald Trump is faced with a blue wave and he loses both the Senate and the House, how does that change his presidency? Well, well, first of all, again, it's great to be with you. I think it will portend a few different things. I mean, first of all, Donald Trump will still be president for another two years. And under the Constitution, elections don't change what the Constitution says, and he will still have considerable amounts of power. We see that he's quite nimble with a pen striking electoral or executive orders. He's also Got a lot of power when it comes to foreign policy and trade issues, and I expect that he will continue to exert his power. We also know, I think, as a personal constitutional matter, that this is a president that likes to be in center stage. He will look for ways to continue to try and set the political agenda and also the communications agenda. He will not move. Quietly into center stage, even as I start to turn to 2028 and perhaps even members of his own party wish he would do so. So I expect to see quite a pull, push and pull on a pull and tug, even if Democrats are able to take over one house, not to mention two. Josh, if come Tuesday, Donald Trump is a wounded president, is that when he becomes his most dangerous? And if so, He's done the one thing that he still has considerable power over, and that is trade and foreign relations. Yeah, absolutely. Like a cornered Trump is not, you know, a declawed Trump. And so I think people should be clear eyed about what that should mean. Now, that said, particularly if Democrats take the Senate, he'll be curtailed heavily, including his ability to confirm cabinet secretaries. We might see an exodus of some cabinet secretaries. And as we just referred to, the question of whether 2028 ramps up, what do you do if you're J.D. Vance? And that's sort of becoming increasingly. Complex by the day. There's also talk that we might see them, members of Congress in particular, if Democrats take both chambers, try to claw back tariff powers. Who knows where that'll land. And of course, Trump has shifted many of his tariffs from more dubious authorities to more bulletproof authorities. And so... You know, I think right now we will see sort of him lean back and fall back on not only some of the executive powers that he has really kind of expanded the definition of, but also some of his pet projects. Right. He's been on the trail for two weeks straight, more or less, and keeps talking about renovations and things he's doing at the White House and the arch that he's building. So, you know, that can be a lightning rod for a president who's looking to make a difference, shall we say, in the coming two years. Melody, we've talked about a couple of different states. I'm going to throw another one into the mix, and that is Alaska. Because it questions what happens Wednesday morning, you know, the Republican governor has ordered an investigation into an alleged ballot stacking scheme. Donald Trump's suggesting he might try to block certification if the Democrat wins there. What what does it suggest about what? What might happen Wednesday morning and afterwards, not just with Alaska, but broader in races Republicans lose? Sure, that's a great question. Well, first of all, with Alaska, I think, one, it's important to distinguish that which is illegal and that which is permissible. But troubling. And certainly the process in Alaska will have to play out. I think as recently within the last 24 hours, the Republican led leadership in the state of Alaska has said to the courts that they want the federal process to be pushed aside. They don't think that there is a place for the federal government to investigate what's happening in Alaska. So that will have to play out. And we know that voting in Alaska got lots of rural communities Getting those ballots, counting those ballots, that's going to take some time. So if I had to bet, I don't think we'll know on Wednesday morning. I think in other places, when we look at the polling and, you know, we'll see what if how correct the polling is going to be, that we've got races within a margin of error. So there will be, I think, probably calls for recounts. For recounts, There may be litigation involved and all of that. is permissible when in fact we have close elections, there may but what we have to make sure of is that those kinds of actions are not pretextual be some questions and ways to undermine duly counted ballots and the will of the voters. So it wouldn't surprise me if that you may it takes a little bit of time until we know exactly what want to ask. our next Congress looks like. Okay, Josh, both you and Melody have talked about polls and accuracy and how close they are in certain races. What if they're wrong? Great question. This election is so bizarre because, of course, Trump redrew so many House districts, so they thought they had an advantage, usually like in the 10-point range. And of course, they're now playing defense in so many states that have been historically not only Republican, but really, really ruby red Republicans. South Carolina, Kansas, Texas, potentially Nebraska, Louisiana, late money going there. And so I think the way to think about this whole election is like, I've been thinking about like a coastal community where there's like a 10 10 foot seawall. You know, and either the water gets over that wall or it does not. And either every house gets flooded or it does not. And that is the way that we're going to see things play out in a lot of house districts and so many of these Senate districts. That's why some Democrats think they're going to either just sort of fall just short of taking the Senate. Or take it by like a handful, like a few seats, like a comfortable margin, because, you know, more dominoes will fall if it's a wave. But right now, we just don't know. Pollsters have been having trouble getting Republicans to respond to their polls or answer the phone or fill out their surveys. They've been trying to compensate for that, either with more calls or with modeling. And just simply no one really knows if they're getting it right. But if you follow the Republican money, the Republican money, not the Democrat money. The party itself thinks that it's substantially on defense and, again, in places that no one really thought would be competitive a few months ago. Josh Wingrove, Melody Barnes, thank you very much. Great. Thank you so much.