Can Donald Trump keep this critical Pennsylvania seat red?

In Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, everywhere we went, we heard the same concerns. I mean, gas has gone from, you know, two-something, maybe three bucks to almost five bucks. Again and again. The economy, prices, that's one of the major things. Affordability is a huge issue right now. Milk has gone up, gas has gone up, you name it, like, the prices have gone up. This district, though small, stands out because it's a snapshot of the country. Population under a million, but diverse in its makeup. Rural and industrial. Urban and suburban. Some parts working class, other parts wealthier. How Americans vote here, the issues they care about, can predict what happens in the rest of the country. It's also one of at least three seats considered to be toss-up races that could flip blue in Pennsylvania where Republicans hold 10 of 17 seats. If Democrats were able to flip those seats and don't pick up or lose a seat anyplace else in the country, it would be enough for them to take control of the House. Chris Borick is a professor at Lehigh University. He's been studying the forces that make Pennsylvania the consummate swing state. I think if Republicans lose this district, there's a multitude of factors that are at play. But there'll be one enormous overhanging topic, and that is cost of living. Hello, Pennsylvania, I won this place. In recent months, President Trump has made multiple campaign visits to Pennsylvania. In an effort to keep its congressional seats red. We're the proud Pennsylvania patriots who are the heart and soul of U.S. steel. It was here he announced his 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% the tariffs. And rallied troops at the Mack truck plant, promising to revive American industry, while endorsing Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie. For more than 100 years, this legendary company has been making trucks right here in eastern Pennsylvania, building the heavy-duty machinery that keeps our economy rolling. This was Bethlehem Steel. You can see it's rusting now, but once a powerhouse supplier that helped build this country's cars, bridges, and structures. It gives you a sense why Trump's promises of reviving American industry strike such an emotional chord here. But will those promises be enough to keep this district in Republican hands? Well, compared to two years ago, they're certainly more skeptical of the promises. We've seen this through polling. There are some real divides from the very industries Trump's tariffs claim to help. What are we looking at here, Mike? So there's some shirts that we've had through the years. You know. Just ask Mack truck employee Mike Schupp, who's also the president of the local United Auto Workers Union. So you don't think that his promises have come to fruition? No. And you're tired of waiting? We don't have any time left to wait. Last year, Mack Trucks was one of a number of companies that issued a warning to the Trump administration over the negative impact of auto tariffs, while the United Auto Workers National Chapter backed Trump. How are you getting ready for this one? Shup takes note that Trump wasn't able to stop Mack from opening a factory in Mexico this year, threatening jobs at his plant. He's ready to give a new candidate, a Democrat, a chance. We have weighed what Ryan Mackenzie has done for us versus what we've asked him to do and he's been found lacking. That's where Bob Brooks, He's making his promises to our agenda, and we're going to give him an opportunity. He understands that the jobs need to be protected. Thank you. We have pushed him on the USMCA. He's going to advocate for us. While Shupp agrees with some tariffs, he thinks Trump's policies have also hurt important trade relationships, like the one with Canada, the state's biggest international trading partner. So you consider Canada a good customer? I do. Some have also blamed the tariffs for higher prices. Part of the larger conversation and dissatisfaction with tariffs, which are part of a larger conversation and dissatisfaction with the cost of living. At this bike shop, owner Lisa Ronca blames tariffs for some of the strain she's feeling in her own business. Take these bikes imported from Canada. No, that's gone up. Or other accessories she sells in the shop. That definitely went up a lot. I mean, even these bags, Toki, it's a little frustrating because it, yeah, I mean, it's not benefiting us. So to have somebody say they're going to do something that is going to help you, but it just doesn't, the problem is all the retail prices went up. And then again, our profit margin. It's the last. True to the district's swing sensibilities, some Conservative voters have more patience for Trump's promises. So I don't look at it as anything being backfired. It just takes time. Thank you very much. You know, we haven't had an equal plane in a long time, But, you know, so he's just leveling the playing field. What we've learned from talking to so many voters in this district especially with Canada. is just how fiercely independent they can be, refusing any party loyalties. And past election results prove that. Republicans and Democrats have won and lost here by tight margins. And that's why this time around for both candidates, grassroots campaigning has been the way to go. All right, guys, thank you. Go get them. At Ryan McKenzie's campaign headquarters, that means launching people to doorknock on a Sunday. Thank you. And at this mixer for Democrats, it's about convincing undecideds in marginal communities like the district's growing Asian population to support blue. And many of our voters are independent, so they're not Democrat or Republican, so they're really ripe to be convinced which party is going to be looking after their interests. Republican support has typically come from some of the more rural parts of the state. Another slim Republican win could depend on whether they're energized enough to vote. Those fractures, the fissures within the Republican coalition, while not gigantic, could be impactful if you don't have those folks turn out. Over the last few months, the Trump flags have gone away. People that have had Trump flags up for years and years have taken them down. a sign that Trump's agenda looms large, even if his name is not on the ballot.