UNC vs. Miami Preview: Can Tar Heels Cover the Spread?

We've got a matchup between North Carolina and Miami that just had a bit of shine taken off of it last week with UNC losing in OT to Syracuse. One of the, you know, themes of the college football season is the, you want the ball second now in overtime, like definitively in, people probably will say that's always been the case, but because basically now what happens is you go second, you go for two, Getting two-point conversions right now in college does not seem to be all that difficult here. And people will say, well, why does that take shine off? Like, how good are UNC? They're 4-3. They would have been 5-2. 5-2. For everyone to remember, UNC last year won four football games. Four. And they were seen as a joke. And the idea from... Ballot-checking crew. The end was inevitable, and now Belichick has an opportunity to get what would be by far his biggest win at UNC, and there's an argument it would be his biggest win since whenever the last Brady Super Bowl was. I mean, I don't know. The in-between win that comes to mind was when they played... Josh Allen and Buffalo in the snow with Mac Jones, and he let Mac throw it like four times, and they won the game. So it's been a long time. 14-point number now in spots here, Dave. What do you make of UNC and Miami? I'm going to take your little bit of a shine off. They could be 5-2, and I'll go a step further, Kevin. They had a lead against Clemson when Lightning stopped the game. They should have beaten Clemson. They came back and played the last eight minutes, and then all hell broke loose, and Clemson winds up winning and covering, which we don't want to discuss ever again. This team is two plays away from being 6-1. Not 4-3, but 6-1. You lose in overtime to Syracuse, and you have the Clemson game. And I'm not telling you North Carolina is a 6-1 team that's good and is going to go to the college football playoff. That's not correct. They did beat TCU over in Ireland to start the season. They played Notre Dame very, very tough. That was a close game at halftime. They should have beaten Clemson, and they should have beaten Syracuse. Now, good teams win those games. Average teams don't, which is why North Carolina is 4-3. They're getting 14.5 points, and I'm not calling for the upset. I'm not saying this is going to be the crystal ball spot that you and I have discussed for eight weeks now. But it could be. It could be. North Carolina, 20th in red zone defense. So maybe they mixed things up against that Miami offense. One hundred and se- 107th ranked pass defense Miami has. 107th. So the one weakness is we all talk about Miami and their Heisman Trophy candidates on offense and how they lead the nation in scoring and yards. That's great. They're going to continue scoring. They can absolutely win this game 40-10. I'm not saying they won't. But you're 20th in red zone defense, you have a passing attack that can't exploit Miami's 107th ranked defense, pass defense. And they're the fourth. Fewest penalties in the nation. They're a smart team. Disciplined team. Miami, not always smart and disciplined. Get seven, eight, nine penalties a game. Chris, the ball does dumb things. If UNC can get Miami to stall a few times in the red zone, catch Miami looking ahead, and we haven't even mentioned this yet. This is a classic look-ahead spot, Kev. South Bend next week. Number one versus number five. It's there. Miami has to go to Chapel Hill first. Now, again, Miami can win this game 40-10, and nobody would be surprised. But you're giving me 14.5 points, two-plus touchdowns, with a North Carolina team who has a good defense, who has a six-time Super Bowl-winning coach, in a spot where this would make, you said it, biggest win since Brady's. I don't remember anything Belichick did after Brady left, and so would most Patriot fans. Biggest win in a decade for him. They have the ingredients to get it done, and we all know crystal ball becomes crystal ball in some spots. Again, Miami could win this game. Miami could win this game 40-10 and be whatever. I'm going to take the 14.5. It is a look-ahead spot. I think North Carolina can keep it close. They did it versus Notre Dame. And I think you're looking at a scenario where Miami wins, but maybe it's like Wake Forest, and Wake Forest keeps it a little bit close and hovers at the end of the game with a little bit of a backdoor.