Three Reasons Alabama Will (and Won't) make the CFP

Alabama has four games remaining in the regular season at LSU, at Vanderbilt, Chattanooga at home, and Auburn at home. And Alabama essentially has to win all four games if it wants a shot at making the college football playoff. There is a possibility they could lose three games and still make it, but just the way things are looking across college football, it's better to be safe than starry and just have those two losses. So I'm going to give you three reasons why I think Alabama can win those four remaining games and make the CFP, and three reasons why I'm a little more pessimistic, and then you can let me know maybe in the comments how you're feeling more optimistic or pessimistic about it. The first reason I think Alabama can win the four remaining games and make the CFP is Keelan Russell's a really special talent, and I think we've seen that at times this year. Heard about him since the spring. It's why he won the job. We've seen him make some throws that only a very few college quarterbacks can make. He's made some plays with those legs. He can extend games. And I think as he continues growing and getting more experience, he's just going to continue to get better and better. He's a young guy. He's only started eight games. And these last four are going to be super important. And he has the talent to take Alabama really far. And I think that's going to have to happen if they make a deep run in the college football playoff. Number two. The Alabama defense has been really good at forcing turnovers. You may not realize it, but Alabama is third in the nation in turnovers gained. It's kind of been lost in the shuffle because of some of the bad play the defense has had. But overall, they've been really good at forcing turnovers, which is an identity of Kangwamek's defense. And most of the time, the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game, and so if they continue to keep that up, the offense that also kind of relies on them limiting turnovers, but I think that's the reason to be optimistic about this team is that they're really good at forcing turnovers and kind of changing the momentum of the game. The offense hasn't always seized on that momentum, but that's something they're able to do and can be a really big key for teams in big games winning that turnover margin. Number three, If, and this is a big if, if Alabama can get past LSU next week, the last three games are really favorable for the Crips entirety. I already went through what they are with Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, and Auburn. But Vanderbilt has just really fallen off this year after Diego Pabia graduated. Chattanooga is obviously the only FCS opponent on the schedule. And then with the Iron Bowl being in Tuscaloosa, I think that makes it very winnable. I think it would be a different story if it was down on the plains in Auburn. But I think because of that, And being in Tuscaloosa, I think it's a game that Alabama should be favored in and should win. So those are three reasons for optimism. Three reasons for pessimism. Number one, a big theme during the bye week is Alabama's run game has just really struggled to be consistent. And you just cannot afford to have a one-dimensional offense in really big games against good teams. LSU currently leads the SEC in total defense. Do you think Alabama's going to have a lot of success down there if they can't run the ball at all? Probably not. Like I said, Keelan Russell can make really special plays, but when all of it's on his shoulders and Alabama can't run the ball, it makes it really easy for the opposing defense to figure out what Alabama is going to do on a play if they know the run game has essentially been eliminated. Number two, Lane Kiffin really wants to beat Alabama. Yes, that's pretty obvious, but next Saturday's game is essentially a playoff elimination game. Kiffin obviously used to coach at Alabama. Thank you, Emma. LSU invested heavily in this first roster for him. They had big expectations for this program. They've kind of lost their biggest game so far against Ole Miss and Kentucky. They don't really have a great win on their resume. So this is a huge matchup for them. Kiffin was really complimentary of Alabama on the SEC Coaches Teleconference, which I think may have been a little bit of rat poison. And so obviously this is a game he really, really wants. And then the third reason I think to be a little pessimistic about Alabama is will the injuries just... Ended up being too much. There have been so many starters out the last couple weeks. And yes, everyone in college football deals with injuries. But Alabama had more players on the availability report that were ruled out on Saturday during games than any other team in the SEC. And you've had a lot of key starters out. It sounds like most of them will be back for LSU, but can they stay healthy? Can you keep other guys healthy? Can you get other guys healthy? And I think if you can't, Alabama... It just kind of doesn't have the depth that it's had in the past at certain positions, and I think that's started to show in some of the games. So I think if the injuries catch up to them, that would be a reason they're not able to finish the season strong. But what do you think? Let us know in the comments on social media. I know that was a little bit longer, just a minute for me today. That wraps it up. Thank you so much for watching.