Buckle up, big day ahead. AUD CPI, then RBNZ (hike), BOC (hike), and FED (on hold) rate decisions.

Hi there, traders. This is Brad Gilbert with today's Trading Action. All right. Now, today is probably one of the better days I've seen in the last couple of months. We've got lots of really important data that are going to give us a lot of answers. First up, the Aussie CPI numbers. Now, these numbers are expected to come in a little bit hot. The forecast is 4.2%, right? This is the big number. So if you're not sure about what to trade, just click on the eight symbols affected. Stronger number, you'll see which of the instruments you should be hitting there. Weaker numbers, not so much, right? So the market sort of seems geared up for stronger numbers. So what does it do for us? Well, just having a look across the board here, right? I'm just having a look on the Aussie crosses. Now, I start with the daily charts because it gives you a bit more of an overview, overall script. Now, Aussie CAD, to me, weaker numbers, this thing has broken down, but it's only just sitting there, right? It's perfectly primed for a move to the downside. And you can see very clearly the two commodity currencies, Aussie and CAD, have been drifting sideways for a number of months. This could be the big catalyst for a move to the downside. What we need is a number probably under 4%. If it's in the 3.8, 3.9, that's the one I'll be hitting. If the numbers are strong, 4.2 or above, well, Euro, Aussie's probably got the best trend at the moment. And you could also be looking to get short sterling Aussie through that trend line. But Euro Aussie, definitely for stronger numbers. Aussie CAD to the downside for weaker numbers. That's my sort of pick at this stage. I mean, Aussie Swiss, I mean, that is the same as Euro Aussie. It does look pretty good as well, right? So stronger numbers there. You're either looking at Euro Aussie or Aussie Swiss for my liking, the two best pairs right then you come into the hourly charts and really sort of pinpoint what you've got so the best thing about this is you know where the direction is um we've got a potential chance now there's a bunch of CPI numbers coming out i'll show you these in a second but you can see where the aussie aussie CAD has just been drifting sideways i'll be looking to get short if the numbers are under four percent and we've also got another trend line here to work with as well here you can see very clearly that nice sort of downtrend for euro aussie stronger numbers, the hardest part is going to be getting into the trade. And this is where its little buddy, Aussie-Swiss, might be the alternative because we do have a bit of a trend line, sort of 20 points above the market around there somewhere. That could be a better trade getting into Aussie-Swiss than Euro-Aussie because we do have that trend line, right? That's for, well, Aussie-Swiss for definitely Aussie stronger numbers and Euro-Aussie for stronger numbers there as well you can see with no trend line on the downside it's a bit tougher and with that you can see sterling aussies already broken down a bit on the alleys so you missed that first initial entry with the trend line okay so what you can see is the plan on the daily charts where we're going to execute on the alleys and that gives us a bit of a map of what's going on now the uh if you just have a quick look at the news right the there's a lot more of this coming out. AI investment boom powers US business spending on equipment. But there's talk about what happens when this stuff finishes, right? And there's a bit more pressure around the big sort of potential fall off if that's what happens, right? So just have a look across the various zones to see, get a bit of an update, get a bit of a feel for what's going through the market, right? Especially with the interest rates, obviously the RBNZ, and that's the next thing off the block, right? We've got the Aussie CPI numbers, right? We're giving you a bit of a quick run through there. Now, just on the back of that, before I go into the RBNZ, this number here, right? Traders at the banks, why they hit it hard, this is the interest rate decision right here, right? Like the decision when it comes time for this to be rolled out is always pretty much 90% or more factored in, like the RBNZ is. So the RBNZ interest rate decision is a non-event. Now, the policy statement may give us some clues. As I said, the press conference is one hour after that. It's probably the event. And press conference, it could be up, could be down. Whereas the Aussie CPI number is one number, and you can't really mess it up. Same with the Bank of Canada, right? They are expected to raise rates, but it's only like a 72, 75%. If I just come into the interest rate tracker, right? There's a couple of things here. We've got the Fed today. They are on hold 92.4%. So the Fed interest rate decision is largely a non-event, okay? The Bank of Canada come down here, it's 72%. I mean, that's pretty solid, right? The risk on the Bank of Canada rate decision is they do nothing, no change of rates. So the hike is largely factored in. So if they don't hike, they'll be selling CAD aggressively. And that sort of messes up my Aussie CAD trade if they don't hike rates. I've got to be aware of that. You come into the RBNZ, it's 93.6% for a hike. So once again, the interest rate decision is a non-event. The only one that is a line baller, or not even a line baller, but there's a bit of room there, is the Bank of Canada. The Fed will not be doing anything. So we've got the RBNZ, the Bank of Canada, and then the Fed today. So the Bank of Canada, probably the only one where there's a chance of something weird happening. So let's just sort of see how that plays out. And as I said, And if it's 90% plus, I mean, if you're not sure about these two, have a look at the four general rules of thumb for rate pricing. This is where you can get more understanding about how the numbers or the decision is going to impact the market, okay? Now, if you're looking for a bit more certainty around what's going on, like you might be looking for a longer term opportunity, well, look at the best trending instruments right now from the summary matrix. okay dollar swiss um uh buying dollar swiss i should say and then you're selling euro which is no surprise those two are like basically step brother and sister uh sell swiss yen buy aussie swiss and euro yen unfortunately for me i'd love to have seen aussie cad or some of the aussie numbers in there if i look at aussie cad aussie versus cad right it's a plus 10 right That's not awesome by any stretch of the imagination. Whereas if we look at Aussie Euro, you've got like a 52 there, right? And actually Aussie Swiss, minus 60, right? So that's actually much better. So when you're looking at this matrix, it tells you really how the two instruments line up, right? Aussie against CAD, as I just said, is plus 10. This is the thing though, right? A really weaker number changes the Aussie outlook dramatically. That's where it will change, and that's not a bad thing. But if we are looking to go with the current trend and we get stronger Aussie numbers, well, Aussie against Euro and Swiss is definitely the way to be looking, right? Okay, and so make sure you look through that through the course of the day because the summary matrix does update six times a day, and you can get a bit more of an understanding or feel for where everything is as we go through the course of the day. Okay, so that's where we are, right? You just want to focus on the sort of key opportunities, get some clear plans in play, right? For me, I'm looking at this. I'm not looking to trade the Aussie numbers straight away. I'm looking for the outcome, right? Especially the year-on-year, this one here. This is the previous number. So the forecast is 4.2. Below 4.2 is a negative outcome for the Aussie. Under 4%, though, that's where it changes. Don't forget, we just had weaker employment numbers. I know oil has been really high. Maybe that sort of blows out the inflation numbers. We'll have to wait and see. Now, RBNZ, Bank of Canada, Fed, okay, you can go into their sites. This is the RBNZ site. So you've got the official cash rate at the moment. If you came into the monetary policy, right, and clicked through that, you would come to the monetary policy statements right on the time of the release just refresh this page and they you will get the release and then you can go down and read what they're talking about right you might have to actually download that file there read the MPS online go down choose the last paragraph which is the most important right this as you can see right they talk about a whole heap of crap and then they give you the the answer why down the bottom right same for the bank of Canada same for the Fed same for everyone All right? So that's one thing to be doing. Now, with your charts, right? So am I looking at the majors at the moment? Not really. Like, I like to see what the dollar's doing. And as I was saying yesterday, there's a bit of a short squeeze on the dollar here at the moment, right? Although they're selling sterling, buying dollar Swiss, buying the dollar index, selling euro against the dollar. So there's a bit of a shift here in the markets, the commodity currencies, actually holding up really well, okay? And so when you are looking at follow the trail, one thing you want to do before the release or any of these releases is just check the market, right? The US yields are coming down a bit, which is nice, takes the pressure off the dollar, but that doesn't sort of match up with what the dollar is actually doing. The NASDAQ had a pretty big day in North America yesterday, up 1.29%. So it'll be interesting to see what the futures do. At the moment, they're sort of climbing up. We are starting to see a bit of a risk on day, but it's still early doors since the 5 p.m. New York reset, all right? So that's one thing to be doing as you come into the session. Have a look around, see what's going on. If you're looking for greater clarification on the numbers, right, we've got alerts popping all over the place. Have a look through like the Aussie pairs, obviously for the Aussie data. As I was saying, Aussie Swiss looks really good. my Aussie CAD trade in here at the moment doesn't look awesome but I can sort of see a different picture maybe this might actually get me to swing back into Aussie Swiss looking for a good opportunity there if it lines up right Kiwi come back and look for the Kiwi there's nothing on the Kiwi particularly lining up awesome at this stage look at their CAD before the Bank of Canada rate decision um you know if they don't raise rates dollar cad looks pretty amazing right you got very clear direction i know it's a bit overboard at the moment that won't matter at the time of the release but 77% factored in if they don't raise rates it's an unwind of cad dollar cad will go up right and that's um uh one thing it should be looking at um if we do get if they do raise rates and they talk up higher rates, well, then there's a chance for CAD Swiss and a few other instruments to come into play. Obviously, for the Fed, you'd be looking at the majors, right? That's where the major focus is. Now, just on one thing with the CAD, right? If you have a look at the CAD stuff, there's higher tariffs, right? There's a lot of talk about the US putting higher tariffs on Canada. So if they do, apparently it's not going to be great as you'd expect. And that could influence things as we go forward. It's probably not going to be a factor in the actual rate decision, but it might be a part of their statement because this is a big uncertainty. If tariffs did increase, they want to have some sort of plan around that, right? And we may see that. So when you start digging into things, you start to say, oh, hang on, that's a bit too much. that's a bit too much. Oh, okay. I've got to try and work out now what's going on here with the Kiwi. What's the RBNZ doing? And this could actually channel you into thinking, well, you know what? I've got all this sort of noise. There's a lot of noise around the central bank meetings. You come back into this and then you're like, hang on a second. These are just numbers, right? 4.2%. That's why I'm sort of leaning towards the Aussie CPI as the best outcome or the best opportunity for today. If I go into the low numbers, this is what I was talking about. There's a whole bunch of different numbers here, right? So this is the one that the market looks at. It doesn't mean these other ones can't come in, right? Like the RBA has gone a bit mad. They've got their own trim mean. There's another quarterly indicator number. And then you've got this trim mean. So there's all this crap, but the main one that the market has always looked at is this one right so let's just see how that plays out and this is going to be a big thing right so whether this is strong or weak uh it's going to really depend on what the RBNZ does i mean they're going to raise rates that's a that's a given the statement may give us some clues but the press conference an hour later could tell us more about what the news articles were writing a few days ago about more rate hikes in december early next year if they're talking tough right and we've got weaker Aussie numbers already on the table, well, you're going to see a big down move on Aussie Kiwi, right? That's what we're looking at. And same thing with the Bank of Canada. If I just come up here, hit medium or high. Okay, so once again, if we get the outcome here and it's a weaker number on the Aussie, Bank of Canada raises rates in their press conference 45 minutes after the statement. If that's like talking, you know, like we'd better keep an eye on inflation, maybe higher rates, all this sort of stuff, well, then you're going to get Aussie CAD moving down and vice versa. If the CAD, they don't raise rates, there's all these different scenarios, right? What you want to try and do is cover as many bases as you can with regards to the US dollar and the Fed, right? Wait for the press conference. Let's just see what they've got to say. There's no change of rates expected at all, right? let's just see how that rolls. Let's see what happens for the dollar. The good thing about the Aussie is it's the crosses, right? You're not hitting the dollar. So the Fed decision doesn't really come into play. All right. So plenty on there guys, right? I just wanted to get all that out on the table because this is like game time, right? Really is. What we need is the market to dance, right? What I mean by that is that's our forecast. Give us a 3.9% or give us a 4.3. Not our worst case scenario, but a scenario that would suck is a 4.2 right on the forecast. It is a stronger number, but the market's already factored this number in, so it doesn't do anything for us. And that is a big downer. Make sure you have factored in the number coming out as forecast, because if you don't, you can get frustrated, lose your marbles and just start trading anyway. My two outcomes that I'm looking for, okay, 3.9 would be awesome, right? That kicks all the Aussie crosses into gear. 4.3 is a bit more of what we've seen. Aussie will still move higher, but I think the biggest one will be weaker numbers where the market doesn't expect what's going on, right? That's the main game, guys, all right? Let's see how it plays out, and I'll be on the Discord and try and give you an update when things start rolling out. All right, guys, have a good one. All the best. Cheerio.