The Spurs secret weapon is not what we expected...

The Spurs have a weapon right now that absolutely no one expected this early in this season. If I asked you who the best three-point shooter in the Spurs starting five has been so far this year, what would you say? Because it's not Victor Wembanyama, it's not Devin Vassell, it's not De'Aaron Fox. In fact, it's another guard who shot 28.5% from three as a rookie. Stephon Castle is 11 for 29 from three this season. That's 37.9% on more than twice as many attempts as anyone else in that starting group and to be honest this is just the start of why head coach Mitch Johnson has some big decisions coming Tobias Harris is about to be back Julian Champagnie is shooting too well in his career and even this season to sit too much and the starting five everyone is arguing about has only played 29 minutes together look we knew this starting five was going to have a lot of questions criticism and here is the group for now. Castle, Fox, Harper, Vassell, and Wemby. Four guards and Victor Wembanyama. If you talk to people that are not Spurs fans, at least my friends, they've said like, wait, they're seriously doing that? And yeah, in 29 minutes together, the Spurs are only a plus two. That is the sample right now. The Spurs are one and two. The loss to OKC, the loss to Houston, they bounce back against Dallas. So let's not pretend that 29 minutes proves anything. Again, a tiny sample, but it does point us in some direction as to where to look. Let's start with Steph Castle. As a rookie, he shot 28.5% from three. Last year, 33.2%. This year, 37.9%, and he's taking 9.73s a game through the first three games of this year. As a reference, De'Aaron Fox has only taken 3.7. Is it real? Well, I mean, I don't really know yet, but if you look at the second half of last year, he shot very well from three. He had his moments in the playoffs, and this kind of trend, at least even through just three games, it matters for a pretty simple reason. And if your four guards are supposed to, or at least hopefully can space the floor around Wemby, one of them at least has to actually be a shooter. And we know Vassell has that history too, but if Stephon Castle can continue to step up like this and stay the guy, I think we're in for something pretty big. Victor Wembanyama's performance and how he does with the starting lineup around him is going to have a huge impact on the Spurs this season. But I still think Wemby has a good chance of winning MVP and $25 on Kalshi nets you a nice little profit. this video is brought to you by Kalshi. We are trading against real users, not the house like traditional sports books. You're buying yes or no contracts on real life events like the weather, like politics, like sports. 60 plus wins for San Antonio. I also think it's still very possible despite starting one and two. Some people are doubting, but I definitely am not. So if you're interested in trying out Kalshi, use the link in the pinned comment or description down below. Use code digest MBA when you trade $25 and get $55 put into your account instantly. Thank you to Kalshi for sponsoring this video but we got to give some context to the rest of the starting five and something that might make you feel a bit better if you aren't feeling good already because i kind of am let's talk about Wemby briefly he's only shooting 36.5 percent from the field 4 of 16 from 3 but the spurs are still plus 33 with him on the floor that all-time defensive impact is not going anywhere that is the best number on the team 12 blocks across three games as well averaging four blocks per game and when your best player is cold offensively and you're still winning his minutes by a lot it does tell you that the structure around him is doing something right or that his impact alone is absolutely insane. But the big conversation comes between Dylan Harper and De'Aaron Fox and Harper's been a bit of an engine 60 points in three games shooting 48% from the field plus 16 the Spurs reportedly already view him internally as their second best player they did over the course of the summer and a year ago no one was saying but you also have to turn to De'Aaron Fox and I'm seeing a lot of fans say hey Fox right now is still better than Harper the bench unit still needs that little injection of offense and I can't necessarily disagree I mean Fox has looked great he's looked way faster than last year quicker downhill quicker in transition especially compared to his injured self in the playoffs and the numbers kind of back up the attacking part 25 assists in three games, 8.3 a game against 6.2 last season, 12 free throws made on 15 attempts. He's doing what he needs to do to get downhill and impact the offense. And remember, he was listed questionable Friday with a right wrist sprain. Not his shooting hand, but still, he played 34 minutes. And if he's doing that hurt, then that's a very, very good sign for the rest of the year. Okay, so that's the starting five. But now there's a question that a lot of Spurs fans have been asking. What combos are actually working? Let's look at some different five-man lineups the Spurs have used this season and what stands out so far. There's one pretty clear pattern that I found, and that has to do with Julian Champagny. Take the starting five and swap Champagny in for one of the guards. Champagny for Castle, 10 minutes, plus 11. Champagny for Fox, 7 minutes, plus 9. Champagny for Vassell, only 4 minutes, but a plus 3. Every single version with Champagny in for a guard is positive. 21 minutes plus 23. The starting five is 29 minutes and only a plus two. So this is absolute proof. No, no, it's of course it's not. It's four minutes, seven minutes, 10 minutes. You can't build your rotation just off of that, but it's still points the exact same thing. And that is the shooting. Champagny is seven of 18 from three, 38.9%. That's right there with Castle, well above league average and a very, very solid number. But that's not the only reason I keep looking at Julian Champagny. Look at what he does when he's out there. Six steals, six blocks, one turnover, 83 minutes. The Spurs are minus one with him over three games, but that's including an OKC night where kind of the whole team fell apart and he was a team worst in terms of plus minus. Plus, if you look at everyone else in the rotation, Cornette minus 35, Carter Bryant minus 22 and 20 minutes, Harrison Barnes minus 13 and 18 minutes, Keldon Johnson minus four. Once you leave the starters in Champagny, the Spurs have been getting crushed. And to be fair, there is one combo that hasn't worked for Champagny on the floor. That's Keldon and Champagny. Those lineups add up to 12 minutes minus three, but Keldon in for Harper with Castle, Fox, Vassell, and Wemby plus 13 and five minutes. It's not about Keldon though. It's about who you can play next to Wemby. And we're going to have to monitor all this over a much bigger sample size than just these small little bits of a few minutes here and there, but it is something worth noting. And I know the three guard lineup has had a lot of criticism, but that Dallas game did show us that they were able to shoot well. The three guards shot 40% from deep together. Fox had 19-9, Castle 19-8, Harper had 22. Everyone got their slice of the pie. So I don't know, like as much as we want to say one thing or another, there's still a lot of figuring out to do. But then you have to introduce Tobias Harris again. The Spurs gave the 34-year-old a two-year $30.8 million deal, the full mid-level exception, and he's the only free agent or really move they made this whole summer. The problem is, of course, he strained his calf in camp. He missed the whole preseason and he's missed every game so far. And Mitch Johnson way back on October 5th said, quote, we won't rush him at all. And the latest is that Harris is progressing on the court and the Spurs are excited to have him back very soon. As of the recording of this video, the injury report is not out for the Spurs next game, but keep a very close eye on it. And I got to give you guys a reminder of what Tobias Harris can bring. If I didn't do that enough this offseason or preseason last year in Detroit, 13.3 points, 5.1 rebounds a game, but he shot 36.8% from three on 223 attempts he's a very good spot up guy and he's a forward a power forward and that's the thing that the starting five doesn't really have right but the question is whose spot does he take does he insert himself immediately into the starting lineup maybe pushing everyone down a position and one of the guards go to the bench I would actually argue that no maybe he can come off the bench to start ease him in off the bench like we didn't sign him to a 30.8 million dollar deal to sit though at the same time we signed him to play and I feel like when you look at the lineup his skill set fits best at the power forward so what do you guys think because it's not going to be easy the thing about Harris too is that he's not really known as a creator about 29% of his plays last year were spot ups with Fox Castle and Harper all dribbling that's actually a very good thing he doesn't need the ball he can stand in the corner he can make the pass count it's the opposite of what the forward guard group kind of has now though Vassell does play a bit of that spot off role he also can play pretty well with the ball in his hands but kind of everyone on the floor at least a lot of them want to handle the ball and so far only one of them is hitting anything from three and I keep trying to give some hype to Vassell too because the plus minus argument even though it's sketchy to use in smaller samples especially over three games it's still there for him they're plus 22 with Vassell on the floor over three games that's second next to only Wemby and he has five steals he's played almost 100 minutes 98 actually so look if Mitch Johnson looks at that stat sheet he doesn't see a guy Vassell who has to come out so that's where this guard decision has to come in so as we know it's not an easy call and i know a lot of you have questioned what Mitch Johnson has been doing but let us know what you would do and i'm seeing so many people give different answers to this question at least Shampenny has made it a bit easier because if you remember back in camp he said quote i don't care starting or not starting I just like being here. Of course, we extended him on that $15 million per year deal this summer. And that is kind of a gift for Mitch Johnson, not having to necessarily worry about it. Like the move that makes the most sense is also the one nobody on the roster is going to fight. And I think the Spurs in general have the personnel these to all just want to play for one another to try and give the team the best chance to win. But also there's a real argument that when Tobias Harris comes back, he can insert himself into the starting lineup, either him or Shampenny, because Vassell, he's a great player and a solid defender, but he's not averaging too many points right now. 9.3 points on 30.8% from three. And the Spurs kind of have no traditional forward there. And Harris is that most natural fit. I would say Harris probably makes his way into that starting five, something I've been saying for a while, but I don't mind other changes too. If it's Shampenny or whatever, let us know your thoughts. But it's not just the starting five. Mitch Johnson has three pretty big decisions coming up in the next week. Number one, yes, that starting question we just talked about, but number two, the second unit, right? We've noticed that Mitch Johnson has been taking Fox out first and bringing him back to run the second unit a little bit. And it's not bad, but these bench lineups have not been ideal. The bench needs a real plan when Wimby sits too. And we talked about Terrace Reed yesterday, especially because Luke Cornett was minus 18 and 14 minutes against Dallas. He's now a minus 35 over three games. Terrace got the fourth quarter for a reason we'll see what he does going forward but number three how long will we wait right last season we won 75 plus percent of our games we played in the finals but we're one and two right now and Mitch Johnson was pretty blunt after the Dallas win saying our floor right now is way too low i don't think he's going to give this much time before making some very interesting tweaks to the lineup last year this team was a two seed with a net rating of plus 8.4 this year we're 21st in the league in true shooting like a team like that shot like a contender is shooting like a lottery team right now which is crazy to say and again i i feel like i'm saying small sample 15 times a video but it is true we can't panic yet but a lot of the fixes on the table that we're seeing do have to do with shooting and personnel Castle, Champagnie, Harris's that's why this lineup question is the whole season kind of brought down into one thing right now because i don't think this question is going to be going anywhere this year so ultimately Mitch Johnson's biggest question It's not Castle or Fox or Harper. It's whether you keep this lineup that's only plus two in 29 minutes or change it to beat the best shooter on the team, arguably, in Tobias Harris, you could say Champagnie, is finally healthy. And when you actually have a couple of legit shooting options that can step up and play at that power forward position. Here's what I'll say, though. Castle, hey, he's earned this shooting praise from last year to the start of this year. It's awesome. De'Aaron Fox is flying. He's efficient. Champagny has absolutely earned himself a real look. and when Harris gets back, the problem is someone has to take a hit to their minutes. I say it could be Vassell. It could be a combo of him and some guys off the bench. Sadly, maybe even Carter Bryant, but hey, we'll have to wait and see. Put your pick in the comments. I'll read the best ones in the next video. Thank you so much for watching. Go Spurs go.