James Kaufman reports on recent solar activity, noting that while a G2/G3 geomagnetic storm has subsided, a significant earth-facing explosion and coronal mass ejection (CME) have occurred. The activity was primarily driven by sunspot 4436, resulting in several M-class flares. Despite high solar wind speeds reaching over 800 km/s, atmospheric temperatures remained stable.
James Kaufman, World News Report today.
Well, ladies and gentlemen,
after almost two days of a geomagnetic storm,
we're finally getting out of that storm,
only to be hit by a large explosion
directly earth-facing with associated coronal mass ejection.
Wow. Busy, busy, busy.
We did get to a G2 geomagnetic storm
for this three-hour period from 4 to 7 yesterday evening.
And actually, the K-index has us going up
to a G3 geomagnetic storm at some point today.
We're going to use our estimated planetary index,
and we're going to find out that there
are 21 hours of a geomagnetic storm,
another nine hours of a geomagnetic disturbance.
Wow.
Over to GOES X-ray flux.
you see we had a double
in it directly earth facing someone called it a triple with a little
edge there all from the same sunspot directly earth facing
as i will show you in just a moment
this is the most activity we've had since we had
the sun the same sunspot explode while most of the
limb was still covering it over
to spaceweatherlive.com you can see that 44 35 and 36 are
responsible for all the activity from the earth facing
the side of our sun and we have these
three M-flares here 1.9 to 1.3 and 1.9 1.96
is the largest we've seen in over 72 hours
And, well, we currently only have a 5% chance of seeing
an X-class flare, only a 40% chance of an M-class flare
that should have sailed, and we're currently running
at a C-baseline, a C1.22, low, but a C-baseline.
So here are the flares of interest here from 1550,
1740 to almost two solid hours of plasma relief,
i.e. a long-term, well, we'll see it right now.
Real quickly, HMI Intensigram, I wanted to point out
that there were a total of six Earth-facing sunspots,
and it looks like two of them are about to go around the far limb.
These two look very active coming around the limb here,
and our culprit, again, is 4436,
a simple sunspot that just actually exploded for two hours.
over it goes 19 solar ultraviolet imager 195
angstroms you can see these sunspots coming
around look awful awful dangerous
and this is going to be our culprit right here i'm going to
show you all the event it was a longer term
event okay several times and there it goes
trying to watch the northern part just disappear
that went off into space i would imagine that this
most definitely has an earth component to it
a very long-term event actually this doesn't go
long enough to show the entire event i can see there's
no doubt the 4436 is the culprit here
i thought it might be coming from one
of those new sunspots coming around the limb
but i found out i was wrong pretty sure most
of y'all saw the event and all the different parts
of it how it worked those goes 19 it's
a little ultraviolet imager 195 angstroms all right we'll
line up the times and we'll get to see the x-rays nail earth
which tells me there's going to be
another component to that large coronal mass ejection probably
the first of the two inflers there
mostly over northern south america
and the atlantic where we have a hole in the atmosphere right
this is definitely going to be one of the blurs here
and this is over all the caribbean most of
north america and south america
and this is fairly long-lasting as you can see
and there is the
third m-class solar flare that's mainly over north america
and central america and parts of the
atlantic and pacific for that matter
and that's going to be all she wrote as far as the m-class
solar flares wow over to discover
a real-time solar wind satellite remember orbiting at one
million miles above earth at lagrange point one directly in between earth
and our sun we see that
we've had no plasma so that was a glancing blow that is for about two
or three hours yesterday
from that uh event that mostly happened around
the limb as it was coming around the limb
no plasma whatsoever here our shields are actually tilted north
which is great
and we're up and down as far as our atmosphere here it's staying fairly
strong stronger now
then well yes sir any other time you can see that we
actually had some solar winds today reach 800 kilometers
per second another
group here 811 kilometers per second
and there was a few more bumps in the road
but 734 kilometers per second.
And then we actually got out of the geomagnetic storm
right around this time period here.
Amazingly, temperatures stayed fairly normal all day long.
Slightly, slightly elevated here,
but very slightly compared to, well,
having 800 kilometers per second winds
and 811 kilometers per second winds here.
Temperatures.
Stay normal and continue that way.
Let's take a look at ACE just for comparisons.
Okay, ACE is, well,
our first real-time space weather solar wind plasma satellite.
Also, orbiting at 1 million miles at the Lagrange point 1,
Discovery is its replacement, although it seems to work fine.
Here we see no plasma over 10 centimeters cubed all day long?
The plasma is just baselining here.
You see the shields are tilted up, up high here,
and we see that it's trying to really hold the atmosphere together too,
even with these stronger winds, arguably.
Now here we saw the 800, here we saw the 811.
This is coming out to be just perfect here.
Here we see the winds were abnormally strong during
the 800 kilometers per second
and during the 811 kilometers per second,
and they are still above average,
and winds are down to, I believe, in the 6s somewhere currently.
So we are out of the storm,
and we have nothing to worry about for around,
I'm going to guess, 40 hours.
Looks like a pretty big event.
About 40 hours from now, we should expect a CME ejection.
but we'll see what they have
to say once they get it modeled please make sure to share and
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