James Kaufman will news report today.
Ladies and gentlemen, it looks like planet Earth is out of the woods,
except for the college index.
It's indicating we're still in a G1, G2 geomagnetic storm today.
It's by far the most sensitive, as you can see,
and I would say the least dependable.
All right, well, NOAA says that we got hit by two of the three
coronal mass ejections, it was in fact a cannibal impact,
but as I showed y'all, we saw no space
weather on either satellite.
Their excuse is the following, and I quote, normally such a coronal
mass ejection would spark a strong geomagnetic storm,
but this one did not. Its internal magnetic
field was relatively weak so its effect was muted end quote
and that's all they gave us
now if y'all watch my previous space weather workup
y'all will see that no plasma and no
heavy solar winds ever hit the satellites i.e discover
or ace so i don't know how they got
around those two satellites that are right in between the sun
and earth but somehow that happened
and our kp indexes still lit up like christmas trees right now
no space weather plasma or
heavy solar winds was indicated again on either satellite
or discover or ace satellites although
our kp indexes spiked heavily which should
be impossible now luckily for us we had another
m flare directly earth facing with coronal mass ejection yesterday
and they tell us that this
flare is going to produce g2 or g3 geomagnetic storm
on the 8th and by they i mean nasa and noaa
and have both models completely different, but similar.
Back to the official write-up, another coronal mass ejection is inbound.
On June 6th, the Sun launched another coronal mass ejection towards Earth,
which could spark a G1 to G3 geomagnetic storm
when it arrives on June 8th.
Here is NOAA's forecast model of the coming CME.
it looks like it's going to bring about 17 centimeters of plasma
and winds only up
to about 650 kilometers per second.
Doesn't look very dangerous at all, does it?
I'd like to also point out that it's just a glancing blow
because, well,
NASA's model has getting hit directly.
Here is NASA's model
for that small M1 solar flare.
The source of this coronal mass ejection,
which we're about to look at, is sunspot 4461,
a very small sunspot that was in the forecaster's
radar before the M1-class explosion.
NOAA and NASA models differ slightly
on the details of the incoming CME.
NASA predicts a more direct hit, as you see here,
and NOAA a less direct hit, as we just looked.
Both agree that the coronal mass ejection will arrive midday
on June 8th, UTC time.
If a strong geomagnetic storm materializes, of course,
naked-eye auroras could spread across much of Europe
and the North American U.S. states.
All right, this is just a good look
at the actual solar flare, the M1.3,
and this is at a sunspot group, AR4461.
AR4455 and AR4456 are working their way around
and haven't given us any trouble.
AR4456 is still beta gamma.
We have another seven sunspots, eight altogether,
seven that are simple sunspots still.
AR-4461 produced the M-Flare.
This sunspot here looks fairly complex, AR-4464.
We'll see if it or the one above it develops.
All right, this is GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager,
195 angstroms, real-time information here.
And as it slowly rotates, AR4461,
that produced the M1 plus flare is right here.
And we have a coronal hole behind that trying to form.
Doesn't look extensive as of yet.
There's no telling.
And it looks like we have a pretty busy star.
Could still see some activity out of several spots.
Jumping over to SDO HMI Magnetogram
Well, I think we have a reverse polarity sunspot down here
We'll have to keep an eye on that sunspot right there
This is going to be the one that produces the M-Flare
AR4461
And, well, it doesn't look too bad
But it doesn't look too great either
This is SDO HMI Magnetogram
This is SOHO 284 Angstroms
And that'll be the last look.
We have solar winds coming in right now at 555 kilometers per second,
and plasma's only at 1.5 centimeters cubed,
so neither are a threat.
I don't know how the college index is lit up as it is,
but those are the numbers coming in right now in real time.
I won't take the time to show you all DSCOVR or ACE,
But I did check to make sure there's no solar weather hitting us
or hitting our satellites.
So, in my opinion, get ready for another nothing burger.
You'll probably miss Earth altogether.
Again, NASA has it as a direct hit, and NOAA has it as a glancing blow.
both of them are guesstimating
a G1 to G3 geomagnetic storm
a large range there, ridiculous
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