James Kaufman will news report today.
Ladies and gentlemen,
we've just had an Earth-directed X1.07 solar flare
show up on our GOES X-ray flux.
It looks like it came from 4455 directly Earth-facing.
It looks like there
was a coronal mass ejection associated with that flare.
That's the biggest flare we've seen in some time.
You can see it here, the third flare of the day.
We had two M flares, very high, nine M flares.
They didn't break the X threshold, although this one did.
They're almost perfectly spaced out.
I thought I would point that out.
It's a very dangerous sunspot.
It has moved up to beta gamma,
along with several other sunspots all of a sudden.
This is getting crazy.
all right here are some of the freak shows we've
seen thus far here is an M3.3 we thought that was
a big player yesterday Earth-directed out
of 4455 you can see that 4455 turned orange meaning it's
now beta gamma we see that M9.3 this looks like
an M7.9 it looks higher than that on the GOES
X-ray flux and then we've just had out
of the same sunspot group as I will show you all shortly
an X1.07 which is the largest flare we've seen in 72 hours
and really in two and a half three weeks
we currently have a 10% chance of having
an X-class solar flare today that ship has sailed
a 50% chance of having an M-class solar flare.
that ship has sailed twice.
And we're running a C1.09 baseline.
We have dropped below that C baseline,
but we have a 95% of having a C-class solar flare.
I believe that should be 99%.
4455, but wait till you see how ugly
the sun looks now.
Over to HMI Intensigram.
Well, this is an ugly picture.
4455, it's been delivering all the blows, is right here.
That's Beta Gamma now, 4458's Beta Gamma,
4459's Beta Gamma, 4461's Beta Gamma.
And, well, we have an additional five sunspots up and above those four.
crazy a total of nine sunspots earth facing today
with four beta gamma sunspots i believe that 4455
will probably morph into a delta class sunspot this is hmi
and intensigram all right we have all
three of them on here first we're going
to see here time wise let's believe they're not going to
be the 9.3 M flare the next one is
the 7.9 and it looks incredible
look at that 7.9 M flare
looks like most of the trajectory definitely created
a coronal mass ejection moved up and to
the right, we hope, right?
And then the last of the bunch, the X flare, is right here at the end,
and there it is right there. So that middle flare,
the smaller one of the bunch, the M7.9,
actually pushed more plasma into space than all of them together.
We will take a look at that
Lasco, and here is the 9.3, the 7.9,
unbelievable, and the X-Flare
that just occurred.
I'm sure that most all three of them created
a coronal mass ejection that would be inbound
for about 40 hours.
We'll just kind of take a look at LASCO C3 here.
You can see the plasma going every which way but loose.
This, believe it or not, is a C-flare.
Then we get into the M-flares,
and we see ejecti, well, everywhere.
I'm guessing there will be an earth component
to many of these coronal mass ejections.
It's busy up there.
Over to our D-region absorption prediction center.
Take it through.
This is going to be one of our M-flares here.
It pops off over, well, India.
over most of asia most of the middle east or a
lot of russia or some of africa and then our
x flare pops off a little bit later not much later just occurred
so that's gonna have popped off
right over central africa and that were to include all
of western europe and most of the atlantic
so radio alternation on none of these were
enormous so over to sdo hmi magnetogram we know
we have a very plucked sun right now
and this was taken today the third and it looks like a mess
It looks like we're going to be getting rid
of a few of the sunspots here,
but our big problems are still, well, still to come, if you will.
We have additional sunspots coming around the limb as well.
Our four, our four beta gamut sunspots are here, here, and here.
So, Soho, 284 angstroms.
You can see it all here.
Getting rid of some of these sunspots going around the far limb.
These are our active sunspots that we see throughout here.
6-1, that's 5-5.
We know them pretty well by now, right?
And, well, I don't see anything
tremendous coming around the limb today.
We'll have to give it a day or two.
Again, so 284 angstroms.
There's a coronal hole on the southern pole.
kind of interesting all right so we've had
two strong m-class solar flares today and an
x-class solar flare already today
and they all are directly earth-facing and inbound it's like
most all of them lifted a coronal mass ejection
and most of them will have an earth component to
them that said folks please give us
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remember that anything's possible. Bizarro world. God bless y'all.