The video reports on a series of solar activities on June 2nd, highlighted by four M-class solar flares. The most significant was an M3.3 flare from region AR-4455, which was Earth-facing and caused a minor R1 radio blackout. The report discusses sympathetic eruptions, the likelihood of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hitting Earth, and the ongoing monitoring of sunspot complexity.
James Kaufman, World News Report, today.
As far today, we've had three M flares,
a little out of the ordinary, at least based
on the last few weeks.
The biggest being directly Earth-facing,
an M3.3, we call it a minor flare event that
peaked at 1650 UTC time.
It did cause an R1 radio blackout.
Not a significant radio blackout, but notable.
This was actually a sympathetic dual flare.
They say R1 radio blackout conditions occurred on June 2nd
due to an isolated M-class solar flare from region 4461,
which is really here, on the southeast limb,
and 4455 near the center disk, which is circled there.
The largest of these events was an M3.3 solar flare
from AR-4455 on the middle directly earth-facing,
which peaked at 1650 UTC time.
A large eruption originated from just beyond the eastern limb
and occurred in tandem, making it unclear if this particular event
resulted in an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection,
in other words, sympathetic eruptions.
Any available supplementary chronograph imagery
will be assessed in the coming hours to make a final determination.
A high chance for additional M-class flares does exist
and is expected to persist to June 4th.
Updates and future details can be found
at Forecast Discussion Product,
which is updated twice a day at 30 UTC and 1230 UTC.
That is a new tool that is being used.
So we really had four M-flares today.
The first one came from 4461,
which is on the limb, coming around, just named.
This M-flare here, these are both 1.2s, very weak M-flares.
Second one came from AR4455, and then this actually
was the 3.3 that came from AR4455 directly
earth facing but they said that there
was a simultaneous M-flare that came out of the
region coming around the limb AR4461 when
this 3.3 M class solar flare occurred my guess would
there will be a directed coronal mass ejection based on LASCO
and i will show you that chronograph
Alright, taking a look at all of today's
activities at M3.33
was the biggest flare we've seen
in quite some time.
72 hours, yes. Probably
two weeks. And
we started the day off
peaking at
445 UTC time
with an M1.2
around the limb
4461 there.
That was followed up by
a directly earth-facing M1.2
at
10.05 UTC time, which was followed up by
this M3.3, and they did say that there was
a sympathetic flare out of 4461
at the exact same time. That peaked around
16.50. Currently, a 10%
chance of an X-class solar flare, a 50%
chance of an M-class flare, and a 95%
chance of a C flare although we seem to be running
a C baseline sure should be 99 i believe but we'll
go with it we'll go with it i believe that there could
be another M flare by the day's end that 50
looks a little low as well right over
to HMI intensigram we've got a lot of sunspots that are
earth facing at least we did we have a few going around
the limb over here it looks like all
together we have 10 earth-facing sunspots we're
having trouble out of 4455 and so for 4461
no trouble out of any of the others thus far all
of these are simple sunspots no beta gamma and
no delta sunspots thus far
although it looks like 4455 will soon morph into a more complex sunspot
And headed over to LASCO C3,
right after that 1600 hour, 1645,
we do see a Coronal Mass Ejection coming from our star.
There's a chance that could be backside, but I'm guessing
that is the explosion that should have an Earth component to it.
Although it did go to the left considerably,
being directly Earth-facing, it should have an Earth component to it.
And over it goes 19 solar
ultraviolet, 195 angstroms.
You can see those flares pop off at the same time.
And really, well,
that looks like it's more
of the northern hemisphere up there.
They're saying it came from 4461.
You can see those pop off at the same time for sure,
but that wouldn't be 4461.
4461 is in the southern hemisphere.
there there we go see
that big filament coming out
of four four six one leaving the surface and
just definitely definitely
and we're popping right in the middle at four four five five
this is an event that just must have occurred here
this event here just must have occurred
it must not be but the very end of the line here
is almost up to date it's it's only one or two
minutes behind must be another flare
that occurred here we'll check it out before we leave all right
take a look at the time here comes that big flare
at 16 45 right about now right over North America
Caribbean and northern part
of South America take another look at that oh
it's considerable well it's a direct hit
did everybody feel it no we did see some
activity after that let's see
if we see it here on our D region absorption
prediction center shows you
the normal x-ray background versus the x-rays
hitting when the flares hit
and i well there it was right there it has not showed up yet on
for some reason GOES x-ray flux we will take
a quick look it's definitely just occurred
and we did in fact see it
on our GOES solar ultraviolet imager now we've seen it again
that's the 1645 now we've seen it again
on our d region absorption prediction center here
so there was in fact a maybe fifth m class solar flare we'll take
a look at it right here unless
it was a strong c class flare which i doubt interesting
and they have mapped it looks like
as a c5 so not a huge deal but it
is there we did see it on both of our other models
it just looked a little bit stronger than it does here
on our GOES X-ray flux that said there you
go guys four total M class solar flares today
the largest being an M3.3 definitely a CME
mass ejection inbound you should see that in about 48 hours
and we will wait on that
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