'Europe should be terrified' as Ukraine support drains

Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion continues. From the beginning, it's been backed by aid from its Western allies. But that support is now in jeopardy. Some political figures in Europe want to suspend aid altogether, while the White House has been accused of actively sabotaging Ukraine. This comes as Volodymyr Zelensky appeals for even more support ahead of a harsh winter. So how likely is it that Zelensky's biggest allies will turn their backs on Ukraine? And what would the consequences be for the West? The European Union has quite a bit of money, although I have to tell you they're getting tired of spending it. But we gave $350 billion to Ukraine. Ukraine has to want to settle this war. Zelensky has to want to settle this war. And if he doesn't, I think it's going to be a very bad thing. Look, we have given tremendous amounts to Ukraine. We've got nothing there. I mean, it looks like Trump wants Russia to win. And he kind of he he seems to suggest that he regrets the fact that Putin didn't succeed in getting to Kiev in that, you know, in two weeks, as was initially suggested. So so, I mean, it's remarkable, you know, that the the the mainstay of NATO, European security, the US and remember, NATO was instigated against the threat from the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact and Moscow. the mainstay of European security, the US, now wants to get into bed with the Russians, which is extraordinary. The penny has finally dropped on the eurosense. I mean, I think Europe finally understands that the US cannot be trusted. NATO is dead. That's the harsh reality. And we have to defend ourselves, right? And I'd say the number one threat to Europe is not Iran. It is Russia. Despite the Trump administration's insistence that Europe free loads of American support, the continent has stepped up to support Ukraine, dwarfing USA since 2022. Within Europe, Germany is the largest contributor, followed by France, then the UK. This support is more than just cash transfers, it's weapons, training and intelligence sharing. It's turned the Ukrainian army into one of the most capable on the continent. But the demand for support is only going up as warnings emerge that ukraine faces its worst winter yet but what does that mean in practice well it's cold i mean i i mean i've lived in ukraine uh uh you know winters are tougher than they are in the uk um and um uh you know i mean they've been less less severe in recent years but still it's it's a tough you know they're tough winters right and uh and ukraine still has you know a very soviet style energy system where you know whole apartment blocks are basically run on a single uh energy system and uh they are they are vulnerable i mean that vulnerability has been reduced there's more decentralization of ukraine's energy grid but i mean last winter was brutal and i think the assumption is with even less air defense uh missiles you know patriots air defense interceptors uh and russia's uh advancements in terms of ballistic missile capability i think the assumption is that it's going to be worse than last winter even and russia has changed strategy in many respects we've seen that in recent months the front lines are basically stabilized russia has probably been pushed back if anything in donbass etc uh and now it's it's deploying a lot of its uh long-range strike capability to take out ukraine's um economic infrastructure and its military industrial capability and actually ukraine's are kind of doing something similar so the two sides trading big blows um and russia's aim i think is to um destroy ukraine's economy um increase for example it's you know kill its economy push the economy into recession increase country's budget deficit its external financing needs so to increase the cost to europe of filling those holes particularly in the budget financing gap so increasing the cost to europe and supporting ukraine going through to next spring where you have this french presidential election um maybe you know if le pen may not win but i mean if she does um the question will be how europe continues to fund Ukraine, you know that's Putin's strategy, right to to uh you know ratchet up the pressure on Ukraine's economy, make life unbearable for Ukrainians and increase the costs of supporting Ukraine to Europe. A hundred billion is kind of what has been needed to keep Ukraine in the war but not win. We need to do more. But will Europe do more? Marine Le Pen is leading the polls in France and she's promised to withdraw funding for Ukraine within six months of becoming president. The AfD under Alice Weidel has also said it would be wrong to continue funding Ukraine And this isn't just about parroting the Kremlin. Europe's economic woes are also playing a part. You are suggesting stopping all German financial and military support, all European support. Is that right? Is that your preferred policy? We already spent over 100 billion. No other country has spent that much. And we are highly indebted. Yeah, I have the interests of my country first. It's Germany first. And this war is not in our interest. In the UK, the amount sent to Ukraine is more than the £11bn needed to bring defence spending to 3% of GDP. It's also more than the budget for the Departments of Justice and Science and Technology. But before a party like RN or the AfD threatens Ukrainian funding, it has to get into power. RN and AfD are known to be more aligned with Moscow's position. Russia has long been backing far right and far left parties in Europe to divide Europe, right? So I don't think there's anything particularly new there. The French elections, I think, in May next year are a big challenge. I'm less concerned about the AfD in Germany. German elections are far away. But if Le Pen wins in France, then, you know, European unity on Ukraine, I think, will be divided. So what would the consequences be if this funding was withdrawn? Imagine a scenario where Ukraine loses, Russia wins, it captures Ukraine's military industrial complex. You have the combination of the two most capable militaries in Europe, Ukraine and Russia, then waged against Europe. And I think Europe would then have to increase defense spending immediately. Russia is the existential threat to Europe and the UK. We need to prioritize, we need to increase our defense spending, we need to prioritize it, we need to be much more efficient we need much more defense autonomy we need to move away from our reliance on the Americans um and you know uh Ukraine is still central to that right again the most effective fighting force in Europe is Ukraine uh our defense now depends on Ukraine perhaps more so than than the Americans which is extraordinary thing to say um which is why you know despite what Trump is doing i just don't think there's an option now for you for Europe to walk away from Ukraine uh again remember two biggest militaries in Europe Russia and Ukraine imagine if those two are are unified uh can Europe defend itself against those probably not that's a terrifying prospect it should be a terrifying prospect for Europeans you know i think uh Europe has no option but to back Ukraine at this point in time because of the fact the Americans are no longer there which faces the existential threat from Russians For now, Europe's support for Ukraine is holding. But as the financial and political costs of defending the country rises, Ukraine's next battle may be about holding on to its allies as well as its front line.