Filament Eruptions & CMEs Inbound! We Are In A Geomagnetic Storm Currently?

James Kaufman, World News Report today. Ladies and gentlemen, we are just getting out of what appears to be a geomagnetic storm. I have no idea what caused it. We will take a look and see if we can find any variables that may have. You can see by our estimated planetary Kp index that we had, well, to start with, three hours of a geomagnetic disturbance, then we went into a G1 geomagnetic storm, and then we were back in a disturbance most recently. If we look at our college index, we had six hours of a G2 geomagnetic storm, and the last three hours we were in a G1 geomagnetic storm. The two other indexes just point to a geomagnetic disturbance. Now, although I can't point to a single event over the last seven plus days that could have caused this, i do see that we're being hit with heavy plasma and have been for most of the day you can see that it's happened about 12 utc time and when we were lucky you'll see the red line up here is above this halfway marker here which means our shields were up and the shields were tilted north well that all collapsed the shields tilted south and the red line went below as you can see here down here that uh mark right there in the middle which tells you if your shields are up or down in this case our shields are down and have been down well for most of the afternoon what we have here is plasma that shot up to, I see a 26.6, I've seen a 30, there's a 29, so it's some pretty heavy plasma. There's a 30.5. What caused this? Well, we're going to take a look, but there is no cause, only God knows. Now, again, these are our Solar 1 and our A spacecraft. They're about a million miles above Earth, orbiting at a vantage point one, directly between the Sun and Earth, so it does take about 90 minutes, up to 90 minutes, for the space weather, the plasma, depending on how fast it's moving, to actually hit Earth after it hits these satellites. You can see that the solar winds are very light, so this could only have been either a filament eruption, which this is way too long for a filament eruption, or it could have been a coronal mass ejection from a solar flare, but there hasn't been one, as we will see. We see some 29s, 30s, have a little dip here, but it shoots right back up. Remember, we lost our shields here, and they were pointed south here. Then we have some more peaks, 23. This peak here a 30, a 32.5 shields completely down shields pointed south here uh a mess so i guess the next shooter drop might very well be another geomagnetic storm or perhaps another geomagnetic disturbance because this weather here well it took a while or it's going to take a while probably has hit earth yet but that next three hour kp index indicator has not dropped yet so we'll see what happens but i would expect something because we did hit 32 centimeters cubed here with our shields completely down and our shields pointed or tilted to the south here solar winds are very slow which means the plasma is moving very slow it could take and, again, 90 or more minutes to reach Earth after it reaches these two satellites. This is Solar 1. You won't believe what ACE shows. Now, after this freaks you out, please hang on, okay? Please hang on, because we've had two very large filament eruptions that generated very strong coronal mass ejections, and they are inbound towards Earth. This all occurred today. no CMEs running a baseline in the B's and i think our strongest flare was a C1 all right red line below the dotted line shields down remember that and this tells us how our shields are oriented always better if they're oriented to the north because we're being pulled by the sun pulled by the sun means we have to slightly be behind it right all right this is where it gets freaky This is 100 centimeters cubed, and you can see several times that it breaks the 100 centimeters cubed line here. And this is around 7 UTC time when it first hit. Wow. I mean, wow. And look at all of this. This is between 10 and 100. We have a lot in the 70 and 80 area here. And we have another spike up here. We have another, well, instance that we almost hit 100 centimeters cubed here. This would have to be a very strong coronal mass ejection. Here, we have winds that shot up from about 275 up to about 400 kilometers per second. And they're back down. You also see the temperature verifies all this. they have to start shooting up when the plasma and solar winds uh actually started impacting the ACE satellite what happens is the plasma pushes these slower solar solar winds into the satellite and speeds them up so that's what you're seeing here this was a plasma event had to be a filament eruption which we didn't see or a solar flare and coronal mass ejection which again we didn't see and it had to be a sizable event even with no shields whatsoever we're seeing plasma here at least three times above 100 centimeters cubed and a lot of heavy plasma upon impact here now it looks like winds are calming down it looks like plasma is calming down it's like temperatures are calming down so we might be through this but the story of the day well we haven't even touched on that yet it's the two huge filament eruptions that came out of nowhere let's take a look all right so they knew that this was coming i don't know what caused it we're going to take a look ourselves at the GOES X-ray flux must have been a filament eruption that someone missed there are no solar winds associated with this they really got the solar winds wrong here at 350 going down down down when really they went up up up up to 400 as we know from 250 now they have plasma that reached about 18 centimeters cubed and we know that it at least doubled or tripled that now let's take a look at what's going on today all right i don't really see the uh coronal mass ejection we're being hit with today this very strong one that you're seeing here is one of the two filament eruptions that they've already plotted you can see that it starts on the 8th here which is today and it very well could have an earth component you can see that could be a glancing blow there's been another filament eruption directly earth facing and that one looks just as bad if not worse now some say that there were two earth facing events and we'll argue about that in just a second the question is is what hit us today this is today right here that's today nothing was there but some solar winds no plasma that's today that's today i mean the whole thing's ridiculous now that's today nothing but then we do get hit on the 13th by whatever occurred today but that just started moving towards earth now you can see the impact on the 13th right there in the middle but nothing today especially not strong plasma that looks much more like this CME ejection heading off to the two o'clock position all right the last time we had any type of solar flare was back here on august 2nd it's the 8th i don't think there's any possible way that this could have been the culprit but that's all i see that's all we see period everything else is up in the b range this is all b b b baseline b flares today we had one c flare i think and it's not even showing up here the last C-flare we had was probably this right here and there's just no way that this C 1.6 could have pushed plasma at a hundred centimeters cubed towards earth so i have no idea what caused that huge event today nor does anyone else i wish someone would let me know and i was wrong we haven't had a C-flare today the maximum flare was a B 7.64 let's hope this is not the calm before the storm ladies and gentlemen here we have a one percent chance of X-class five percent chance of M-class 25 chance chance of a C-class solar flare. We're about to take a look at the two filament eruptions. Those were big deals. Kind of strange with the earth-facing side of our sun this quiet. The two filament eruptions are up next. We'll take a look at them a couple different ways. But in the meantime, take a look at the sunspots. All that we really have going on is four 4,504 are beta-gamma sunspots, and 4,503, none of them have done a thing. We have several sunspots that are headed around the far limb. They haven't done a thing either. Now, I'm going to let you all tell me if this is two. You can see the first event there, two or three events. They're saying up there that was two events. We'll also look down to the 4 o'clock position. we'll see where that very strong chroma ejection was lifted that NASA's already plotted now the one that was earth-facing at central disk we'll try to go over a few times here maybe that was one and maybe there was a second one there I don't know I only see two filament eruptions NASA says that there was three I have well looked at this a million times and this just looks like a longer term eruption although it might be two filament eruptions and what we see with this um eruption at the four o'clock position is a dark filament releasing into space we've got we've got much better well we've got some pictures in different angstroms we'll be able to see the release of the plasma much better but we have that central disk which lasts over an hour and then we have that Dark Filament release at the 4 o'clock position. Those were not expected, I'll assure you. And taking a look at GOES 19 at 304 angstroms, I think I can see the third eruption. The double eruption's down here, isn't it? One, two. And the single one's up here. Is this one, two? It very well might be what they're talking about. It looks like we have something leave and then something follow with it. They say three filament eruptions. There's definitely two major filament eruptions. And we saw that they've already actually analyzed this, and it might have an Earth component. If this lifted a coronal mass ejection off the surface of the sun, it will definitely have an Earth component to it. Or two, perhaps. Now, if we can have that kind of plasma hitting with absolutely no coronal mass ejection that I can see, or solar flare that we saw, well, I'd hate to have a big flare come about. This is a very calm Earth-facing side. We have that beta gamma sunspot here. They could, well, intensify, and we do have some sunspots coming around the incoming limb here. We don't know a lot about them. This is SDO HMI magnetogram. We're going to be able to see those new sunspots coming around on that last slide that we're going to look at. Or not. This was taken at 8.06 Central Time last night. It's the latest and greatest. I was hoping that maybe they took it a little bit later. we'll be able to see a little bit more of these two sunspot groups which looks like they're very active so we'll keep you updated in case anything additional happens but right now it's all quiet either two or three filament eruptions one of them should at least give earth a glancing blow and have an earth component to it and the question is is did this uh filament eruption on the central disc lift the coronal mass ejection and if it did it will have an earth component to it with that said god bless you guys please give us a thumbs up and please share and let me know what you think caused that really heavy plasma that was stronger than 100 centimeters cubed. Very, very strong. I don't think we've seen plasma that strong, but a few times. You'll have a wonderful afternoon. And remember, God bless you. Anything's possible in the Bizarro World.