Why is Trump breaking norms to endorse Netanyahu?

There's been a lot of column inches written and comment made about the relationship between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. In an interview with Newsmax's Affinity late last week, last Thursday, the US President Donald Trump said he doesn't trust anybody in politics when asked directly whether he trusts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Well, he then posted this over the weekend. To the great people of Israel is how he began this Truth Social post. he says Bibi Netanyahu has been a great warrior prime minister and an even greater partner for peace in combating the Islamic Republic of Iran this is the kind of partner the US is demanding of Israel a country for which it has done so much please let this letter serve to represent my complete and total endorsement of Bibi Netanyahu in his upcoming race for re-election so that's very clear isn't it and he says he wants his re-election as prime minister of Israel And then in capital letters, Bibi Netanyahu will never let you down, Donald Trump. Well, Benjamin Netanyahu responded to that on his social media platforms, thanking him for his endorsement last night. Take a listen. President Trump, my dear friend Donald, I'm so honored and humbled by your extraordinary endorsement. I could say, and that's easy, there's never been a greater friend of Israel in the White House. That's an understatement, not by the longest shot, but I think America has been fortunate to have a leader of conviction, of clarity, of courage, who faces down this threat to America and to Israel, those who chant death to Israel, death to America, this vile, murderous dictatorship in Tehran that wants to acquire nuclear weapons and the means to deliver it to every American city. You understand that, and you're not set back by internal criticism. focused, laser focused on the task of removing this threat from this current generation of Americans, from all future generations. You've shown remarkable consistency and remarkable leadership. Well, I'm joined by Jonathan Friedland, Guardian columnist and co-host of the podcast Unholy. Jonathan, good to have you on the program as ever. Did this explicit endorsement from Donald trump surprise you will it surprise israelis uh maybe a little bit um because of the tone he was adopting and you played a clip of it just as recently as just last thursday asked if he trusted netanyahu said i don't trust anybody and there definitely have been signs of strain in the relationship and there's been quite a lot of commentary in israel about the fact that there hadn't been this endorsement until now that by his standards donald trump had left this intervention pretty late um you know whether this this by the way is breaking a norm it's yet another taboo that Donald Trump has broken normally American presidents didn't intervene in foreign elections and that was always a sort of rule they might hint or not but this idea of giving a complete and total explicit endorsement is new but people thought that he had gone a little cold on Netanyahu and there were you know these books that come out where they speak off the record to people behind the scenes, expletive-filled rants directed either from Donald Trump himself or from White House staff at the Israelis' huge frustration because of the war in Iran, which is so clearly not a success and which Donald Trump sort of co-authored with Netanyahu. So there were all kinds of reasons to think he would hold back. In the end, my guess is that it is to do with the war in Iran, because to admit that Netanyahu is anything other than a stellar success is to admit that the war in Iran has been a failure. And so these two, they both face election in different forms, midterm elections on November the 3rd, the Israeli general election, obviously, on the 27th. And they both need, they're sort of clinging to each other because they both need to pretend that this joint war they did together, instead of being a fiasco and a disaster, has been a great success. And so their fortunes are kind of bound together. And I think that's, in the end, why this endorsement has come. And I was wondering, to use a US sort of language rather than Israeli language, whether he, Donald Trump, would feel that at the moment he needs a hawkish Israeli prime minister for the reasons you've just described. But equally, I mean, on Iran, I doubt any Israeli prime minister would be anything other than fairly hawkish about Iran. That's right. I mean, the choice that's on in Israel is not between hawks and doves. You know, there isn't really a dovish candidate plausible for the office of prime minister. It is instead, you know, the battles between Benjamin Netanyahu and this man, Gadi Eisenkot, who is a former chief of staff of the Israeli military. You know, he's no softie, but he just thinks that in all kinds of ways, Netanyahu has screwed up, including having October 7th happen on his watch. A series of failures that led to that and a lack of kind of probity and honesty in the conduct of affairs. But in terms of the hawkishness, he's no dove. I just think that Donald Trump calculated that if Gadi Eisenkot were to be victorious and Netanyahu was rejected, it would look as if this was a repudiation of Donald Trump's war, that Democrats would be able to say, look, the Israelis have rejected your partner in this war. It's clearly a failure. This is another mark against you. And so I think he just made the calculation that his fortune is tied to Netanyahu. I think he will also have been influenced by some of these polls that suggest that it is either deadlock or if anything, a scenario in which Netanyahu could cling on. And Trump does like being able to say he was on the winning side. I was struck by the very end of that very long, sorry to make you sit through it all when I read it earlier, but that very long statement there from on Truth Social, concluding in capital letters Bibi Netanyahu will never let you down now there is a large tranche of Israeli voters I've heard you and your guests talking about it on your podcast who do very much feel that Benjamin Netanyahu let Israelis down on October the 7th before it on it and after it. That's exactly right I mean the election that's playing out now in Israel and I'll be there for election day on the next Tuesday is really a referendum on the handling of October the 7th and the view that from the top down, but very much from the top, there were a string of failures, starting with a sort of conception that Hamas were deterred when clearly they weren't, that came from Netanyahu. So this is on him. He hasn't instigated a public inquiry, a civil commission, a state commission of inquiry, which has been the norm in Israel after disasters like this, going back to the Yom Kippur War in 1973, and the failure to prioritize getting the hostages out. That's what Netanyahu's opponent, Eisenkopf, broke from Netanyahu. He was actually in a kind of emergency coalition. He left that because Netanyahu was not prioritizing getting those Israeli hostages back home. All those things are on the ballot here. And it means trust in Netanyahu is much lower than it was. I have to say, trust even in Donald Trump is down in Israel. Israel, one of the few countries in the world where an endorsement from Donald Trump is a help rather than a kiss of death, which is what it would be in most countries. In Israel, Trump has still got some standing, but that is diminished by this war because the view is that the war has been done sort of at half-cock against Iran, that you started it, okay, decide whether or not you think that's a good idea, but he's just sort of put it on hold. That is not one many friends for Trump in Israel. And so I don't think this is quite the endorsement it would have once been, but definitely in what is a very, very close election in Israel anything which helps Netanyahu helps and this will be for some voters on the right a help I think what most analysts will tell you there though is that all of this is sort of priced in people knew that Netanyahu is quite pally with Trump what they worry about if anything more is that Netanyahu has managed to alienate leaders all over the rest of the world including Europe and even inside America Democrats now moving very fast away from Israel that's also on Netanyahu so this endorsement doesn't really help that and obviously internationally a lot of people will be looking at the israeli elections through the gaza lens israelis though have domestic concerns i mean gaza is one of their domestic concerns obviously in in a very particular way but they also have the question of who will heal israel because israel has been it was divided before october the 7th it was the point at which i got familiar with your podcast actually was your reporting and Yonit's reporting on those massive demonstrations against Netanyahu and against actions that threaten the Supreme Court's independence and all of that. But that hasn't gone away, has it? That threat to Israeli democracy hasn't gone away. No, it's why many people inside Israel think this is a really consequential, even existential election, because yes, of course, Israel's democracy is limited in the sense that the Palestinians on the West Bank, occupied territory they're not part of it but israel insert internally israel proper as it were in its pre-67 borders is a democracy but it's a democracy that is battered and and and sort of reeling from the last uh three four years of this government netanyahu's government who absolutely as you say went to war with the judiciary the one restraint on government power massively divisive his whole strategy his whole career has been divide and rule and there are plenty of people who think if he's re-elected then israel will go the way of you know orban's hungary erdogan's turkey where it will be democracy on the outside but but really only in name and and they fear that tremendously and what they see in Gadi Eisenkot is a figure because you used to talk about division and unity i think the people who are rallying to him see him as a potentially healing and unifying figure because yes on the one hand a former soldier himself but he is also one of the bereaved of uh of the october 7th period his son uh died and two nephews incredibly two nephews so his family was struck three times uh there by um as bereaved relatives his own son two nephews all killed in Gaza. And that means the, you know, I think sometimes of Joe Biden, who had this sort of mourner-in-chief persona, because he had suffered so much bereavement, he was seen as somebody who could empathize. People see that in Gadi Eisenkot, whereas Netanyahu, yes, he conveys strength, but he is a toxic, divisive figure, massively weakened by his extreme failures on october 7th but if they're looking for to turn a page not necessarily in terms of a new orientation diplomatic opening to the palestinians which is what the rest of the world is waiting for desperately but internally a kind of healing figure who will at the very least not pose a threat to the democratic machinery inside israel proper thank you jonathan and i hope we get to speak to you once we know the result because it's only a few days away isn't it really thank you very much indeed jonathan friedland guardian columnist and co-host of the podcast unholy Thank you.