This Trade Ruins the Raptors...

So there are a lot of people trying to sound smart right now talking about this Toronto Raptors team. They bring up the first apron, they bring up a bunch of advanced stats, and a lot of them do it to build an argument about trading R.J. Barrett. And this has led to years, I'm talking years, of R.J. Barrett trade rumors, trade speculation, articles getting sent to me the way it once again did this week, as we see just an awful, an awful proposed trade sending R.J. Barrett to the Detroit Pistons. And honestly, I've gotten sick of all these R.J. Barrett updates. So I went out and I pulled all the numbers that people bring up about trading R.J. Barrett, brought up the cap sheets, seeing how the financial situation actually looks for the Toronto Raptors. And I want to deeply, I want to aggressively combat all of these trade rumors and arguments that people are throwing out there to trade away R.J. Barrett. Now, obviously, the motivation for this has been the eye test, watching the Raptors play and clearly seeing how important R.J. Barrett is to this team on the basketball court. But when you look at the numbers in the actual context of this roster, having a 35-year-old Kawhi Leonard where this championship window is open right now, you'll see these numbers don't even make sense. they don't even support the arguments other people are making. By the end of this video, you'll understand why some people want him gone, how that would affect the Toronto Raptors, and why I am standing on business of the take that this team should not trade away RJ Barrett. Let's start with the case people are making to trade away RJ Barrett, because I don't think they're stupid by any means, I just adamantly disagree. We've dispersed by looking at the Raptors salary cap situation as the team is about $1 million over the luxury tax right now and less than a million dollars under the first apron, which basically is the point where the league starts taking your tools away to build your roster. Obviously, no one's arguing about saving money because they passionately want Uncle Eddie Rogers to save his bread out there on the roster of this team, but it's the fact that your tools and assets that you can use to build your roster get taken away once you cross these first aprons. And things get even more messy next season as Kawhi, Scottie, Quickley, and Poeltl alone are owed over $160 million. And RJ Barrett is the only starter without a deal past this season. He currently makes $29.6 million this year and is an unrestricted free agent come this summer. Now, Michael Grange has reported that an extension could, in theory, go as high as $185 million over the next four years, which for even as much as I love R.J. Barrett would be a wild price for him going forward. And because of this uncertainty, the front office isn't in a rush to give him a contract extension. Back in May, Bobby Webster said, the good thing is he's under contract. So that's also something we can talk about by the end of next season. So that's the foundation for a lot of this logic to trade R.J. Barrett, and specifically this recent mock trade that's been put out by Bleacher Report and sent everywhere over the past couple of days. They want to swap out RJ Barrett for Ron Holland, who makes about $9 million, which will save about $20 million this season and get picks for the future. Clean, smart, responsible, great stuff for a front office to do. And if you just look at money, I completely get it. But basketball is not played on a spreadsheet. And when you look at how this would actually impact the team on the court, it's not a good one. So to quickly look at this trade itself, Ron Holland was the number five pick in the 2024 NBA draft. And to be fair, he is a legit defender. B-ball index has him as a defensive impact in the 90th percentile among starters. But here's the problem with this. The Raptors obviously have a focus on defense, but they just spent the entire summer telling us that they're going to shoot more threes. Ron Holland made 25% of his threes last season on catch and shoot threes, just 26%. And it doesn't seem like there's much improvement here over the course of this summer, as over the first three games of preseason, Ron Holland is only one for six from behind the three point. His offensive impact by B-Ball Index's own metric is in the bottom 2% for NBA starters. That's the bottom 2%. I'll repeat that. While RJ Barrett is in the top 30%. You'd be trading a 19 point per game score for an 8 point per game score that can defend but cannot shoot on a team that just made shooting its whole identity. So I'm just going to shoot this trade dead here and now. If the Raptors are in win now mode, this deal makes no sense. Now I'm of the stance that's pretty cut and dry, but a lot of the broader arguments people make regarding RJ Barrett is the shooting. There's a shooting problem on top of this money situation, And that's where things start to fall apart even more for these different arguments. In my last video, I made the case that Toronto Raptors do need to shoot more threes. I'm in agreement with Darko Rajaković, but it has to be from the right shooters. And Jacoby Walter is one of those shooters that needs to be taking more shots. And the numbers are clear. Last season, Walter made 41% of his threes, while RJ Barrett made 33.9%. And from the corners, Walter hit 49.2%, and RJ's was just 32.9%. And B-Ball Index agrees, RJ gets good looks off the ball, you know, gets nearly the top 10 percentile in terms of shot quality, but makes them at a rate that would put him in the bottom 20%. That's real, and I'm not going to pretend that it isn't. But here's what that argument skips. Jacoby Walter took 13.6% of the Toronto Raptors' plays when he was on the floor, while RJ Barrett took 25% and Walter scored about 7.5 a game while RJ scored 19.3. One player is a shooter and he is great at it, but the other one is your second scorer. And this isn't a Jacoby Walter versus RJ Barrett debate. Both of those guys can play together. The question really becomes is can Jacoby Walter or another shooter sliding in there replace the production of RJ Barrett? And that's where this question gets really interesting. Here's what R.J. Barrett actually is. Last season, he averaged 19.3 points per game, was in the top 15 percentile in the NBA, and had an offensive rating in the top 13%. He's a downhill player at 13 drives a game. He drew the 25th most free throws on drives in the entire NBA. And per touch, in the paint, he was 11th out of 234 qualified players. B-Ball Index puts his points per possession in the 96th percentile among starters and his finishing talent in the top 20%. How he consistently gets to the rim is in the top 1% in the entire NBA. And when it mattered most against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the playoffs, RJ Barrett averaged 24 points per game, 7 rebounds, shot 38.6% from 3 in nearly 39 minutes a night. He also hit a game winner in Game 6 to force Game 7 in that playoff series. Call me crazy, call me psychic, but I saw this one coming tonight. And talking about his defense, Darko addressed it directly. He said, RJ made a step in the playoffs and we expect him to continue there. The guy that people want to trade for cap space tied Scottie Barnes in points per game in the most important series the Raptors have played in years. Now here's the part that nobody is talking about Smart people say RJ Barrett needs the ball to be good He's not going to fit playing around Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes And they bring up points like how B-Ball Index has his offensive portability as very low But then they fail to actually look at how RJ Barrett played when he had the ball less In the 24-25 season, RJ Barrett used 28.1% of the team's plays And had a true shooting percentage of 54.7% Last season, his usage dropped to just 25.4% and his true shooting jumped to 58.5%. His offensive rating went from the 35th percentile to the 87th. Less on his plate made him better and made him more efficient. And he knows it. Here's what he said himself at the end of last season. I think this was my most efficient season. Knowing how to be successful with less. Now think about who just walked through that door. Darko even said it after Kawhi's first game back. When Kawhi's on the floor, he attracts so much gravity and opens up a lot of space for Scottie and Quick and RJ and for everybody else. So they really complement each other well. RJ is a sniper when his feet are set and when he's in good spacing. In one half against the New York Knicks, Kawhi, Scottie, RJ and CMB combined for 65 points on 23 of 33 shooting. And it's not just one night. Through four preseason games, RJ is shooting 50% from the field, 8 of 19 from three, and getting to the free throw line seven times a game. About 23 minutes a night. After Thursday's game in New York, Josh Lundberg said Barnes is looking dominant and Barrett is looking sharp. Think of it like a running back who's facing eight guys in the box every single play. You add Kawhi as a deep threat and suddenly RJ Barrett's lanes to go to the rim are getting a lot wider. And this is the part the spreadsheets don't see. Kawhi Leonard is 35 years old. Every season we have of him in his prime is a gift to this Toronto Raptors team. And Toronto's already placed its bet. In September, they gave Kawhi a two-year $115 million extension on top of the current season he's playing. That's it. That's the window. These next three seasons. The trades we're seeing proposed like Ron Holland and a couple of picks help you in 2029 but Kawhi's window is now you don't trade your second best scorer for a timeline that you are not on superstars don't just come on your team very often you have to take advantage when you have players the level of Kawhi Leonard Scottie Barnes and his prime you can't just wish that away for looking for future draft picks and potential prospects and then there's the part that jaded fans just write off rj barrett is a hometown hero he wants to be here he is someone that raptors fans should really be rallying behind it means the most to me to play here you know more than anybody else on the team right so like uh playing here like this is the team that i watched growing up this is my favorite team all done from here and who doesn't want to play at home so i want to be here I want to be here for the rest of my career. I don't ever want to leave like that. And it goes further than that. In August, Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Brenner reported that R.J. will be willing to take a hometown discount to win a championship here in Toronto. This is my spot, and whatever happens in my career, if it's here somewhere else, then nothing else will compare to being here and playing here, you know, so. For the fans, for the team, how rare is it to have a guy that's from your hometown, from this country, that's here that's a star level player that wants to win a championship for this place it's a story that couldn't be written better you don't trade a guy like that that is producing that is performing so well just so an analytic model a spreadsheet looks a little bit nicer for your cap projections in 2029 so should the toronto raptors trade rj barrett no and definitely not in some package for ron holland and assets that will help you in the future the cap math is real and it's something the Raptors will have to deal with. But you deal with that when it actually costs you. You don't sacrifice this team. You don't make this team worse in order to help your future cap situation. And the money is there. Bobby Webster said it directly when asked if Kawhi's extension will get in the way of re-signing RJ Barrett. Webster said ownership has been incredibly supportive and the market just might be on the Toronto Raptors side right now. The Golden State Warriors just gave Brandon Podziemski a five-year $110 million contract, which is roughly $20 million a year over the next few seasons. When you look at that, that could potentially shut down any $30 million a year offer for RJ. And if that's true, keeping him just got cheaper. So my take is keep him next to Kawhi. Let him attack all of this space that's about to open up that we've never seen him have before. And honestly, if it's the right price, just extend the hometown kid, the hometown star that wants to be here. Now I want to hear from you. Do you guys think the Raptors should trade RJ Barrett for Ron Holland? Let me know in the comment section. And if you're enjoying this style of video, make sure you guys hit that subscribe button because we got a lot more coming.