Texas vs. Florida Odds, Preview & Jadan Baugh's Prop Line

All right, so let me get to Texas, Florida here, guys. 11 and a half is the number right now in the market. Well, unfortunately, or maybe not, though, Dave. I don't know. Like, you give me the outlook, man. I imagine for you, as a Florida guy, of all the teams to no-show against, the Beamer boys, who were, like, specializing in no-showing and felt like on a weekly basis here in the SEC, had to be just unimaginable. 38-19, they lost that football game as double-digit favorites. Like, the Missouri loss was obviously not great, but whatever happens, right? Like, you know, bad spot. Okay, where are you at right now on Florida? Where are you heading into this game? With Texas, who, by the way, are coming off a bad loss to Oklahoma. They should have not lost that football game last week. Yeah, and you know my feelings on how Florida has played, and yes, you lose to Missouri in the spot, coming off the big one about Ole Miss. You go to Missouri, a place you haven't won or played well in recently, let down spot, team was full of themselves, it happened. I was on the show last week saying this is a beautiful, beautiful bounce-back spot. And for me to tell you that after living through the Billy Napier error, the Jim McElwain error, and the Ron Zook error, that last week's game was as stunning of a loss as I've seen in the last 20 years should tell you how stunned I was, considering who has coached these teams over previous years. You just didn't think the team would fall that flat at home versus South Carolina. The talent is still there. They just played awful on both sides of the ball, all three sides of the ball, if you think about it. As for Texas, I've not been a big fan of Texas. You and I have talked about this on the show. Sure, we played them against Ohio State because the game was at home, and they were getting points at home. They also got outplayed in that game, but won it. Not necessarily surprised that they lost to Oklahoma, although I'm not a fan of Oklahoma either. I had this game circled, Kevin, as let's say Florida continues to play well and maybe they do drop Missouri, but they then beat South Carolina. We talked about how they have playing one and two in back-to-back games in Texas this week and Georgia in two weeks in the cocktail party. I figured they could beat Texas and lose to Georgia and they would still be fine and positioned to get a playoff spot before the South Carolina loss because I thought they matched up well with Texas. Now, the defense has been terrible. You're talking 115th in the country in pass defense. Arch Manning hasn't shown me much. The rush defense hasn't been horrible. Texas can run the ball, but Florida can stop them. Florida's offense now goes against a top 10 Texas defense, but it's a Texas defense that allowed Oklahoma to score 27 points last week. What concerns me about this spot is Aaron Philo is likely not playing. Now, he hasn't exactly been great. He's been good enough. You talked about there'll be a day where it costs Florida, and it has. If he doesn't play, you've got a different type of offense, and maybe Florida can't produce against Texas. I'm not taking them. The Alumni Association sent me a very strongly worded begging not to take them anymore on national TV. Just kidding. They didn't do that. But after taking them last week, I cannot tell anybody to take them this week. For me, I am wondering if this 11.5 is a Tramell Jones number or not. I we do not have official word if it's going to be Philo or Jones expectations seems to be Jones if this is a Jones number be a little surprised now maybe it's going to settle at 13 and a half and we'll never see the two touchdown number on the Gators but I do think at two touchdowns Florida would be pretty tempting here again I think Texas did themselves no favors against OU last week but Texas blowing out what I think is still a talented football team is just really not who they've been with Sark plus Arch Manning and what I was able to settle on is betting a consensus superstar over his prop Jaden Ball Jaden Ball's a star I understand he's not had the type of games that we've wanted to see in the last two weeks here after going for 136 as a floor in the first four games. Jaden Baugh has had 72 rushing yards over the last two games combined and 27 carries. So that's not a small amount of carries in a two-week sample size. But Jones or Philo, if this game's going to be close, Jaden Baugh's going to get work. He's also the type of player I could be looking at the box score, it's like, oh, sweet. I have two carries for six 60 yards. He broke one. I'm going to be in this the whole way. I played an 80-plus at plus 106 over on DK. I think Jaden Baugh's the bet here in this game. Yeah, I mean, he had 600 yards in the first four games, and like you said, 72 in the last two. And if you look at the Missouri game, Missouri's game plan was obvious. We are going to stop Jaden Ball at all costs, and we're going to force Philo to beat us in the air. Didn't work. South Carolina game just got out of hand early second half. You mentioned the carries. He had them. It was a game script issue in the second half of both games you're not going to run the ball when you're down three touchdowns and you need to come back it's just not going to happen if Florida can keep it closer to Texas and the big thing to me is going to be the Florida secondary if they can hold Arch Manning and this Texas team down then he's going to get his carries if it's a close game i think he can absolutely get 80 yards because he is more likely to get closer to the 135 yards than he is the 12th but that offense needs to do what they did the first four weeks it's going to come down to whether the game is close.