The history of Prigozhin's rebellion repeats itself; blow to Putin's regime within the system
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Communist Party rallies in Moscow are unlikely to escalate into a major riot, but they could further inflame sentiment among Russian security forces, said Abbas Gallyamov. It is precisely these security forces that could become the force that attempts to overthrow the current regime in Russia.
Putin's former speechwriter spoke about who might rise up first in Russia in an interview with Irina Uzlova. "This problem of public sentiment shifting, followed by sentiment among the security forces, is not a far-fetched one. In fact, this problem is now fully emerging for the Russian authorities," the political strategist predicted.
The TV presenter then asked her interlocutor who would defend Putin if the Russian security forces revolted. Gallyamov responded, "Kadyrov won't make it. We know that. It was precisely when he failed to reach Prigozhin that he acquired the nickname 'Nedekavshiy'. The story of Prigozhin's rebellion showed that anything can happen unexpectedly."
The expert also recalled the march on Moscow, which could be repeated: "We must remember that Prigozhin is no enemy of the system. He was nurtured within the system and saved it, but the system's flawed structure and the stress it faced during this war and external pressure led to a situation where one element of the system went crazy, like Frankenstein, and began to destroy the system itself, leaving no one to protect it. Lukashenko, the external anti-crisis manager, had to be called in and the country's governance handed over to him."
The current Russian regime "could rapidly collapse." This is according to a report published by the Finnish Ministries of Defense, Interior, and Foreign Affairs, which states that several signs point to a potential weakening of the Russian president's power. Vladimir PutinThe document explicitly states that the current Russian system could rapidly collapse due to the weakness of its institutions. According to the Helsinki government's analysis, the current Kremlin incumbent could continue to lead the Russian Federation for the next ten years, but in the face of a "structurally fragile" system. While seemingly strong, it could quickly crumble if the balance were to be altered. Possible causes of the Russian regime's collapse, according to the report, include a decline in the middle class's standard of living, a fractured elite loyalties, and growing dependence on China. Specifically, under normal conditions, a concrete threat to Putin's power is considered highly unlikely, provided he remains operational, China continues to support Russia, sanctions do not cause economic collapse, and the country's military fortunes remain stable. According to the report, influence in Russia is primarily determined by personal relations with Putin. Putin has also maintained a balance between the various factions of the elite, preventing any one from gaining excessive power. However, this has created a paradox: Putin's strengthening personal power could simultaneously weaken the system's ability to survive without him. Regarding the transition of power, the report observes: "There is no designated heir apparent, and Putin has not prepared society for a handover." The relationship between the elite and President Vladimir Putin currently appears stable, but an internal or external shock could trigger a chain reaction and seriously undermine Putin's power.
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