Russian army suffered a major defeat in Donbas; occupiers are effectively surrounded

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Russian armed forces in Ukraine were forced to abandon more than 200 square kilometers of territory along the main offensive line in the Donetsk region, losing a key foothold near Liman, from which they planned to attack the Donbass belt of "fortress cities" from the north.

This was reported by OSINT analyst Clement Molin , and later confirmed by Rochan Consulting and the American Institute for the Study of War. Following a four-month counteroffensive and several mechanized assaults, the Ukrainian Armed Forces successively liberated Novoye, reached Kolodezi by mid-August, and then launched another assault between Katerynivka and Novolyubovka, effectively cutting off the advancing Russian force. As a result, the Russian army lost 240 square kilometers and failed to encircle the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north, estimates Konrad Muzyka , head of Rochan Consulting .

The Ukrainian operation has resulted in the complete erasure of Russia's territorial gains since early March, ISW reports. In addition to the northern direction, Russian troops are attempting to encircle the belt of fortified cities from the south.

Ukrainian forces managed to break through a "very old defensive line," effectively penetrating deep into the rear of the Russian troop group operating in Liman, notes military expert Valery Shiryaev . Russian troops in this zone found themselves "effectively encircled," he believes. "This is largely an operational encirclement, but a tight one: Russian fighters are still stationed in many settlements in the Shandrigolovo area, and they are supplied only by air."

"We can confirm the Russian army's retreat," Shiryaev continues: the Ukrainian Armed Forces' advance was gradual, with village after village moving into the gray zone where Russian troops had previously felt confident. By cutting off the salient at Liman, Ukrainian forces thwarted the Russian command's plans to encircle the fortress cities, ISW writes.

Z-channels acknowledge a "worsening tactical situation" near Liman. Rybar attributes this to "systemic lies in reports to the higher-ups" and, consequently, "an inaccurate assessment of the situation." "Based on the experience of the Kupyansk sector, where similar problems were resolved through unprepared assaults, this will lead to further losses. The withdrawal of reserves from other areas of the Zapad group's area of responsibility to cover the gaps near Liman will create gaps in the defense that the enemy will inevitably exploit," the channel writes. Shiryaev believes that "the story of Kupyansk is essentially repeating itself now": "In exactly the same way, the same commander of the Zapad group, Kuzovlev, reported on successes in Kupyansk, after which he even received the title Hero of Russia. Then everything turned around, and the command and senior political leadership have already announced this to the entire world. Now things are much worse than they were in Kupyansk." Military analysts agree, however, that it's premature to talk about a turning point on the front. However, a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will delay the "offensive on northern Donbas," Molen notes, and Shiryaev agrees. Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin claim that Vladimir Putin expects the military to completely seize the Donetsk region within the next six months. The Kremlin had previously set the end of the year as the deadline, and since the beginning of the war, Putin has pushed back deadlines on Donbas at least 15 times, ISW reported. "The disastrous summer for the Russian army has ended, and autumn is beginning with a huge scandal surrounding Svyatogorsk," military analyst Yan Matveyev notes . Instead of capturing the city, Putin received a large-scale counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, liberating critical territory. "For Russian troops, this crisis is more of a local one, but it's still a crisis—it would be foolish to deny it. Meanwhile, important prospects are opening up for Ukrainian troops along the entire Slavic front," Matveyev believes.

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