This Addiction Is Destroying China: 2.5 Million Die Every Year – Is AI Behind It?

Every year, Chinese people smoke approximately 2.4 trillion cigarettes. If all those cigarettes were lined up end to end, they could stretch from the earth to the sun and still have millions of kilometers left over. But what is even more frightening is not the number of cigarettes being burned, but the number of people dying because of them. Every year, approximately 2.5 million Chinese people die from tobacco, Lung cancer, heart disease, stroke, and a host of other illnesses have turned a socially tolerated habit into one of the deadliest public health crises in the world. Behind those millions of deaths is a massive money-making machine. Nearly the entire Chinese tobacco market is controlled by the China National Tobacco Corporation, abbreviated as CNTC, a wholly state-owned enterprise. In 2024 alone, this monopoly system brought more than $223 billion in taxes and profits into government coffers. In 2023, profits and taxes from the state tobacco industry accounted for approximately 6-7% of the Chinese central government's total fiscal revenue, an amount roughly comparable in scale to the country's entire defense budget that same year. That is why a bitter joke has emerged among Chinese smokers. Every time you light a cigarette, you are contributing money to help the country build another warship. But behind that seemingly humorous remark lies a bitter paradox. The more people smoke, the more money the state collects. The more addicts there are, the more stable the revenue becomes. While hundreds of billions of dollars continuously flow into government coffers, millions of people are dying because of it. On one side are hundreds of billions of dollars. On the other are millions of lives. When economic interests and regulatory power are concentrated so closely together, the real question is no longer simply how dangerous cigarettes are, but who has enough incentive to make Chinese people smoke less? All the horrifying secrets behind the world's largest tobacco empire will be revealed in The $223 Billion Machine Behind Millions of Deaths Ladies and gentlemen, this money-making machine did not appear out of nowhere. First, let us take a look back at its history. In the late 19th century, western tobacco corporations had already recognized China as an enormous market. American tobacco tycoon James B. Duke, after acquiring a machine capable of producing hundreds of cigarettes per minute, immediately turned his attention to China because the country had a population of approximately 430 million at the time. When he was told that Chinese people did not yet have the habit of smoking cigarettes, Duke was not worried at all. He believed they could simply learn how to smoke, and in the end, he was right. British American tobacco then rapidly expanded across China, pushing large numbers of domestic businesses out of the market and dominating the tobacco industry for decades. But after the Chinese Communist Party came to power in 1949, the industry was nationalized, foreign companies were forced out, and the remaining private companies were placed under government control. Mao Zedong himself was a heavy smoker. His successor, Deng Xiaoping, was as well. Under Deng Xiaoping, state-owned tobacco enterprises were gradually consolidated into one enormous monopoly system. Today, approximately one out of every five Chinese people smokes, totaling more than 300 million people. Cigarettes are not simply a consumer product, but have become deeply embedded in social interactions. Expensive cigarettes are often given as gifts on formal occasions. People returning from trips may bring cigarettes back as presents, and, in some situations, refusing a cigarette offered to you can even be seen as being unsociable. Doctors smoking cigarettes is not an uncommon sight, nor is seeing government officials smoke. China accounts for only about one-fifth of the world's population, but consumes nearly half of all cigarettes worldwide. And nearly this entire market is controlled by CNTC. Every year, this state-owned enterprise produces more than four times as many cigarettes as Philip Morris, the corporation behind Marlboro. CNTC has 19 major tobacco manufacturing companies and controls nearly the entire supply chain, from growing tobacco plants and purchasing raw materials to manufacturing, distribution, imports, and exports. Combined, this system controls more than 97% of China's domestic cigarette market. Selling cigarettes while making the rules? Who is controlling whom? But what makes CNTC unique is not merely its size. The problem is that the tobacco business system and the agency responsible for regulating the industry are tightly intertwined. Representatives of the tobacco industry can be present in the process of deciding the size of health warnings, bans on smoking in public places, and many other policies. Under a normal public health regulatory system, the objective should be to reduce tobacco consumption. But for a machine that collects hundreds of billions of dollars from this product, every percentage point decline in consumption also means losing part of its revenue. That is why the problem cannot be explained simply by saying that Chinese people like to smoke. Behind that habit exists an economic and political power structure with a direct interest in maintaining the market. Its consequences are measured in human lives. According to estimates based on global burden of disease data, from 1990 to 2023, China recorded approximately 68 million tobacco-related deaths. Even more conservative estimates put the number at approximately 59 million. Of course, every individual death cannot be directly attributed to CNTC. But unlike many other industries, the connection here is extremely clear. For decades, CNTC and its predecessor organizations produced nearly all of the cigarettes consumed in China. It is difficult to find another single company anywhere in the world whose products are associated with a death toll on such a massive scale. And the number of deaths still shows no sign of declining rapidly, with approximately 2.5 million Chinese people dying from tobacco-related causes each year, while the numbers of people suffering from lung cancer and heart disease continue to rise. Like other tobacco corporations, CNTC needs a new generation of customers if it wants to sustain its market. Young people are the future of this industry. In major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, e-cigarettes and new nicotine products are becoming increasingly popular. But most of these products are manufactured by private companies, meaning they have become competitors to state-owned cigarettes. And once again, a conflict of interest appears. The state tobacco regulatory system not only controls cigarettes, but also has the authority to set regulations for e-cigarettes. For example, lemon or mint-flavored e-cigarettes are banned on the grounds that such flavors may appeal to children, while cigarettes with similar flavors are not subject to the same level of restriction. The justification of protecting children sounds reasonable, but when regulations restrict competing products while the state system's own primary product continues to be sold, questions about the interests behind those rules are difficult to avoid. Commitment to fighting tobacco, but who is blocking reform? The same problem appears directly on cigarette packages. In 2005, China joined the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and committed to protecting public health policies from the vested interests of the tobacco industry. After the convention was implemented, smoking rates fell sharply in many parts of the world. Over approximately 20 years, the global adult smoking rate declined from around 34% to 23%. If China had followed a similar trend, the country could now have approximately 80 million fewer people addicted to cigarettes. But China's smoking rate has remained almost unchanged. According to surveys cited in the source material, many tobacco control measures have been weakened or obstructed by the state tobacco system. Even the process of translating international commitments into Chinese has been accused of interference intended to make certain wording less forceful than in the original text. One very obvious example can be seen directly on cigarette packages. In many countries, cigarette packages must display large images of cancerous lungs, damaged mouths and teeth, or diseased body parts so that buyers cannot ignore the consequences of the product they are holding in their hands. In China, however, the warning on many cigarette packages consists only of a relatively discreet line of text. Smoking is harmful to health. There are no graphic images of disease. While the packaging can still be beautifully and elegantly designed, featuring traditional symbols or patriotic colors. Some brands are even used as premium gifts. Zhongnanhai once became popular among young urban consumers after appearing in a hit television drama. As the older generation of viewers aged, the brand was refreshed to target the next generation of smokers. What is notable is that China does not lack the ability to impose stronger warnings. Vietnam also joined the same World Health Organization convention, but on many cigarette packages in Vietnam, a large portion of the front surface must be devoted to graphic health warnings showing disease. Research shows that specific warnings, such as smoking causes heart disease, or an image of a destroyed lung, have a stronger impact than a general statement such as smoking is harmful to health. Some countries have gone even further by requiring plain packaging, removing nearly all branding and promotional elements. Meanwhile, China still does not require graphic health warnings on cigarette packages in the way many other countries have done. The Chinese market also continues to use marketing based on low tar content. Low tar numbers can make smokers believe that a particular type of cigarette is safer, but the idea that low tar cigarettes are less dangerous has long been disproven. This was once one of the most notorious marketing tricks used by the Western tobacco industry during the 20th century. Smokers who are concerned about their health, but are not yet willing to quit, can easily switch to products advertised as light, smooth, mild, or low tar, believing they have chosen something less dangerous. In China, approximately 20% of cigarettes sold are low tar varieties, and that proportion is still increasing. So if measures such as raising taxes, banning advertising, requiring large health warnings, and banning smoking in public places have proven effective in many countries, why has China not implemented them more aggressively? Part of the answer lies in the power of CNTC and the regulatory system behind it. This is not an ordinary company, but an enormous network present in nearly every major city and locality across the country, while the head of the tobacco system occupies a very high position within the political structure. According to investigators, that level of influence has not only been used to oppose bans at the national level, but can also reach all the way down to the municipal level. In 2016 and 2017, the central government attempted to push stronger regulations aimed at restricting smoking in public places, but the nationwide proposal ultimately was not implemented as expected. Some cities later introduced their own bans, but in 2022 and 2023, the state tobacco system was again accused of stepping up efforts to obstruct regulations at the local level. This is not simply a debate between smokers and non-smokers. It is a confrontation between public health and an industry that generates far too much money for the state. China also differs significantly from many Western countries in another respect. In the United States, one of the major turning points in the fight against tobacco came when state governments realized they had to spend enormous amounts of money on medical treatment for smoking-related diseases. In other words, governments had to directly bear the financial cost when citizens became ill, creating a powerful incentive to reduce smoking. In China, the structure is different. Basic health insurance programs cover only part of the costs associated with serious illnesses such as lung cancer, leaving a significant portion of the burden to patients and their families. Tobacco-related disease can financially devastate a family without creating the same kind of direct pressure on the central government's finances. The paradox, therefore, becomes even clearer. Tobacco revenue flows centrally into the state, while a very large portion of the cost of disease is dispersed among individual people and individual families. However, the fact that the state owns a tobacco company does not mean the situation cannot change. Thailand also has very substantial state involvement in the tobacco industry, yet its smoking rate has declined significantly over the past two decades. This shows that the issue is not simply whether a tobacco company is publicly or privately owned, but whether a country has sufficient mechanisms to control conflicts of interest. China has failed to do this effectively, and the state tobacco system has now grown so large that any effort at reform must confront a machine deeply embedded in both the economy and the political apparatus. From tobacco schools to the Belt and Road, the CCP poisons the entire world. But this machine has not stopped at China's borders. CNTC wants to sell more cigarettes overseas, exports are increasing, and the company has invested in or established joint ventures in many countries, particularly in Asia, while also seeking new markets in Africa and other regions. CNTC products are now present in approximately 125 countries across five continents, and that expansion has also been linked to Beijing's Belt and Road initiative. In other words, alongside roads, seaports, railways, and infrastructure projects, one of China's largest state-owned enterprises is also seeking to bring its cigarettes into new markets. According to the investigation used in the original source, in some countries where Chinese cigarettes do not have a legal market, distribution has been carried out through complex networks of subsidiaries, intermediary businesses, and shell companies. In some cases, allegations involving smuggling networks have also emerged. Even so, the most important market remains China. And domestically, the state tobacco system has tried to build an image of itself not merely as a company that sells cigarettes, but also as an organization that contributes to society. One of the most controversial examples is the funding of schools in poor rural areas. It is said that more than 100 schools are associated with tobacco industry sponsorship programs, with some schools even bearing the names of cigarette brands. Imagine sending your child to an elementary school named after a cigarette brand, but the story goes even further. In some places, slogans have reportedly appeared along the lines of Genius comes from hard work. Tobacco helps you become successful. An industry whose products are addictive and associated with millions of deaths every year is present directly in children's educational environments under the banner of charity. It is not difficult to understand why images like these have angered many Chinese people. Profits are counted in money. The price is paid in human lives. In the past, there were still lawyers, civil society organizations, and tobacco control groups openly speaking out against CNTC. Some lawyers took tobacco companies to court. Advocacy groups appeared in the press and at public forums to criticize the industry's influence on public health. But around 2017 and 2018, China's political environment began to change noticeably. Power became increasingly centralized, while the space available to civil society organizations, lawyers, and independent advocacy groups became increasingly restricted. That change even spread into an area that might seem completely unrelated to politics – tobacco control. Groups that once openly criticized the tobacco industry found it increasingly difficult to speak out, while external mechanisms capable of putting pressure on the system also weakened. When an industry brings hundreds of billions of dollars to the state, while simultaneously exerting deep influence within the regulatory apparatus, and there are fewer and fewer independent forces capable of overseeing it, reform naturally becomes extraordinarily difficult. A journalist who studied China's tobacco industry for many years made a noteworthy observation. Power in China has now become so concentrated that the person with the greatest ability to bring about major change in the country's smoking rate may be Xi Jinping alone. Perhaps in another 20 or 30 years, as the younger generation changes its habits and health awareness increases, the number of smokers in China will decline. But that is a story for decades from now. In the short and medium term, the outlook remains extremely bleak. More than 300 million people are smoking. Approximately 2.4 trillion cigarettes are consumed each year, and around 2.5 million people die every year from tobacco-related causes. At the same time, hundreds of billions of dollars continue flowing into a state system with a direct financial interest in this industry. That is what makes the story truly frightening. This is not simply a greedy private corporation trying to sell more products, but a system in which the producer, the beneficiary of the profits, and the authority with the power to regulate the industry stand far too close to one another. When people smoke less, public health benefits, but the state's tobacco revenue declines. When people continue smoking, the treasury continues receiving money, but the price is paid in cancer, heart disease, and millions of deaths. In the end, the question is no longer simply whether Chinese people should quit smoking, but a much more uncomfortable question. When a brutal authoritarian regime like the CCP makes so much money from a deadly industry, does it truly want that machine to stop?