Phoenix Housing Market: Why the West Valley Is SPLIT & Buyers Have More Power | Arizona

If you're trying to figure out what's happening with home prices in the Phoenix market right now, where you live matters a lot. When you start looking at the numbers, Buckeye, Goodyear, Peoria, and Surprise aren't all doing the same thing. And even within the same community like Verado and Victory in Buckeye, that can tell two different stories as well. So today we're going to look at what happened in August, what's changing, and what I think you're really going to need to know if you're thinking about buying or selling a home here in the West Valley. In fact, almost every community we're looking at today, more homes have sold so far this year than at this point last year. And in some communities, quite a bit more. But they're also taking a long time to sell because buyers have choices. Buyers don't have this sense of urgency like they had in the past where homes were selling in six to ten days. Now they can really shop and compare without being so concerned they're going to lose their dream home. If they lose one home, there are plenty more to choose from. So sellers are having to be much more realistic about their price. When you look at prices, they're really all over the place. Some of these communities are up from last year, some are down, and that's exactly why I don't think a headline about what's happening in the Phoenix housing market tells you very much about what's actually happening within your particular community and with your home. So rather than spend a bunch of time on the Phoenix wide numbers, let's get into the communities I actually track every month here in the West Valley and see what's happening. Let's start with Verado which is located in Buckeye, Arizona. We currently have 154 homes for sale which puts us at just over six months of inventory and homes are taking on average 88 days to sell. 23 homes closed in August and year-to-date sales are actually up about 12 percent compared with this time last year. However, the median sales price in Verado is $521,000 which is down just over five percent from last year. Some homes are selling but we are definitely seeing some price adjustments in this community and that's something I think sellers really need to pay attention to. The homes that closed in August sold for about 95 percent of their original asking price on average. So by the time those sellers got their homes sold there was about a five percent difference between where they started and where they ended up. That's why pricing competitively from the very beginning matters so much in today's market. When buyers have this many homes to choose from, it's really hard to convince them to overpay for yours. Now let's move over to Victory. This is the 55 plus portion of Verado. Victory currently has 69 homes for sale which is just under five months of inventory and homes are taking on average 96 days to sell. There were 13 homes that closed in August and just like Verado, sales are actually up year to date about 13 compared with this time last year. However, the median sales price is $547,500 which is down a little over two percent. One thing I do want to point out with Victory is that five of those 13 August sales were new construction. So almost 40 percent of the homes that sold were builder sales. That's important if you're selling a resale home because you're not just competing with your neighbors, you're also competing with the builders and builders are offering lots of incentives that a traditional seller may not be able to offer. So your price and how your home shows right out of the gate become even more important. You have to look like a good value against these new builds if you're gonna get to compete. Now let's head over to Vastancia which is a master plan community located in North Peoria. This community currently has 126 homes for sale which puts it at about five and a half months of inventory and homes are taking in on average about 90 days to sell. But Vastancia is showing us a little bit of a different story. There were 19 homes that closed in August and year-to-date sales are up 34 percent compared with this time last year which is a pretty significant increase. And unlike Verado and Victory where we've seen some median prices come down, Vastancia's median sale price is actually up slightly. It's currently just under $610,000 which is about 1.4 percent higher than last year. So even though homes are still taking about three months to sell and buyers have lots of choices, we're still seeing quite a bit more sales activity in Vastancia this year while home prices have basically held pretty steady. Moving on to Trilogy at Vastancia. This is their 55 plus gated community. Trilogy has about 41 homes for sale currently and this is one of those communities we're looking at with lower inventory about 3.4 months. Homes are also selling a little faster here averaging about 73 days on the market. 10 homes closed in August and sales year-to-date are up about 4 percent from last year. The median sales price is $657,000 which is down just under 2 percent. What's interesting to me about Trilogy is that even with less inventory, buyers are still being pretty selective about price. Looking at the homes that actually sold in August, we had one sell over its original asking price immediately. It had views, it was close to one of the rec centers, plus it was a very popular floor plan while other homes sat for several months and eventually sold well below where they started. So having less competition definitely helps sellers, but it doesn't take pricing out of that equation. Now let's move over to Estrella Mountain Ranch in Goodyear, Arizona. Estrella currently has 167 homes for sale. That's just under five months of inventory and homes are taking on average 80 days to sell. We had 26 homes close in August and year-to-date sales are up 22.5 percent compared with this time last year. At the same time, the median sales price is $495,000 which is down just over 1 percent. So prices have basically held pretty steady here. They are still building in here and looking at the August closings, roughly a quarter were new builds. So that's something resale sellers here do need to keep in mind because new construction means really stiff competition. Your home needs to either look really well maintained or priced to show value compared to a new build. Overall, I think Estrella is a really good example of what we're seeing in parts of the West Valley right now. More homes are selling than last year, but that hasn't translated into rising prices. At the same time, we're certainly not seeing the kind of numbers that would suggest a housing market crash. Next, let's look at Cantamea which is the 55 plus portion of Estrella. Cantamea currently has 27 homes for sale which puts it at just under six months of inventory. What really stands out here is how long homes are taking to sell. An average of 128 days. Only six homes closed in August and year-to-date sales are up almost 20 percent compared with last year. However, the median sale price is $420 which is down just over two percent. But here's something resale sellers in Cantamea need to pay attention to just like the others. Three of the six homes that closed in August were new construction. That's half of the sales. So both are taking on average the same amount of time to sell. So even though sales are up this year, resale sellers are competing pretty heavily with Taylor Morrison. And when homes are already taking more than four months on average to sell, your home has to look like a good value compared with what buyers can get from the builder. Next up is Pebble Creek which is a gated 55 plus community in Goodyear. Pebble Creek currently has 71 homes for sale and this is actually one of the tighter markets we're looking at today with just 2.9 months of inventory. Homes are averaging 67 days on market but when I dug into the homes that actually sold in August there were a couple of pretty big outliers. One had been on the market for well over 500 days so most of the homes that sold actually moved quite a bit faster than the average suggested. There were 16 homes that closed through the MLS in August. Year-to-date sales are down slightly about three percent compared to last year but the median sales price is just under $550,000 which is up about 2.4 percent over last year. So Pebble Creek is showing us a little bit of a different picture. Inventory is tighter, homes are generally moving faster, and prices have actually held up pretty well. Of the communities that we've looked at so far, this is definitely one that appears to be giving sellers a little bit more leverage. Our last community is Sterling Grove which is located in Surprise. Sterling Grove currently has 82 homes for sale and this one really stands out because that's almost 14 months of inventory and that is by far the highest of any of the communities that we've looked at today. Homes are taking an average of 95 days to sell, seven homes closed through the MLS in August, and year-to-date sales are actually up about 21 percent compared to this time last year. And the median sales price is sitting at around $770,000 which is up almost nine percent year over year. Now I wouldn't look at that nine percent and automatically assume home values throughout Sterling Grove has gone up nine percent. This is a smaller community with fewer sales and a pretty wide range of price points. So the homes that happen to sell can move that median quite a bit. And here's another important piece of this. Four of the seven homes that closed through the MLS in August were new construction. That's more than half of the sales. So if you're trying to sell a resale home in Sterling Grove, you're dealing with almost 14 months of inventory if you're including those builder homes and you're competing heavily with Toll Brothers and the incentives that they're offering. That's a market you really have to pay attention to how your home is priced and how it compares with what buyers can buy new. So after looking at all these communities, I think the biggest takeaway is that there really isn't one story for the West Valley housing market right now. We're seeing more homes sell in most of these communities compared with last year, but that doesn't really mean prices are going up. And in some communities, they're up and others are down and most are just pretty much holding steady. And for sellers, I think the message is pretty clear. Buyers are out there, homes are selling, but buyers have choices. And I've been saying this on repeat for months. They're comparing your home to everything else on the market. And in some communities, they're also comparing it to brand new homes with builder incentives. So how you price, the condition of your home, and how your home shows from the very beginning really, really matters right now. And if you're a buyer, you have time to compare homes. You can look at the numbers and negotiate without feeling like you have to make a decision in five minutes because there are 10 other offers coming in. This isn't a market where nothing is selling and it's not a market where every home is losing value. It's just a much more selective market and where you're buying or selling matters. I hope you found this video helpful. My name is Michelle Seymour, and I'm an Arizona realtor who specializes in the West Valley. If you're thinking about buying or selling a home here, I'd love to help you understand what's happening in your market and for your particular home. So please reach out. You can give me a call, shoot me a text, or send me an email, and I'd be happy to help. Also, if this is your first time to my channel, please be sure to subscribe and hit the bell for notifications so that you can be the first to learn about anything new happening here. I'll see you in the next video.