Quiet Atlantic, active Pacific

Thanks for logging on to myfoxhurricane.com. Here we are less than a week until that peak of the hurricane season. Typically we see all kinds of activity or it's when you're going to see that most activity in the tropical atlantic basin but you look at this. Here we are less than a week and there is nothing to speak of. You've got a lot of this saharan dust working its way across the central and the eastern atlantic. We have this strong wind shear so here we are talking about no tropical development expected over the next seven days but we've also talked about this many times. When you have el nino and you have quieter conditions in the atlantic basin you typically see a lot more activity in the pacific basin and that is exactly what we have seen. We have hurricane low carina and marie so all kinds of activity out there. Then we also have yet another area that we're watching up to a 50 percent chance of development with that over the next seven days. So here's a look at hurricane low that is working its way to the south of hawaii. They're watching this very closely. You see through the overnight hours has actually gone through an eyewall replacement cycle so right at the end of that loop you notice how that eye just looking very large but they're watching this very closely because it's going to make a turn towards the north and so some of these islands on that western side could see some significant impacts with this but the trend has been good over the overnight hours because what we're seeing is more of a trend even though it's going to turn it's going to shift it more towards the west so if we can get more distance between the islands and the hurricane that is certainly good news but you can see just by the view of this this is a big system so it's going to turn it's going to slow down and it's going to turn which really is always a difficult thing when you're talking about a slow moving turning system exactly how quickly will it turn where exactly will it make that turn that's always a very difficult thing but here's the latest forecast track weakening as it starts to make that turn and push to the north but still close enough that likely these western islands are still going to have some impacts still unclear on exactly how strong the impacts will be but that will start to become more and more clear as it makes this turn and we see exactly the path that this will be making but you look at the various computer models and there's still a bit of a spread in the models the ones that are over the islands those are models that generally don't perform as well so we are seeing more of a trend with the better performing models to push it more towards the west but that is certainly something that we'll be watching as we go through the weekend and into next week but as far as the atlantic basin over us things stay quiet over the next seven days we'll keep you updated right here on myfoxhurricane.com