
Terrible destruction in Moscow; Russia and Ukraine are stepping up long-range strikes

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Last week, a Russian barrage of missiles and drones struck a children's hospital, a school, residential buildings, and warehouses around Kyiv, killing at least 16 people. Ukraine, lacking Patriot interceptors , was unable to shoot down any of the Russian ballistic missiles.
Ukraine's response this week included a drone strike that caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries, near Nizhny Novgorod. Meanwhile, a warehouse belonging to the e-commerce giant Wildberries burned down in the Tambov region. The air war between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new phase, according to The Wall Street Journal .
With expanded air assets and inadequate air defenses, both sides are striking each other in a brutal, relentless standoff that is causing a widening swath of destruction and mounting civilian casualties, journalists note.
Ukrainians managed to protect, repair, or replace enough heating and power systems to keep cities functioning. But with each passing year, the accumulated damage to Ukraine's power grid increased.
The shortage of Patriot interceptors—which have been in short supply worldwide since the US-Iran war—is souring the mood in Kyiv. Russia's long-range strikes this summer killed hundreds of Ukrainian civilians, with Iskander-M ballistic missiles causing a significant number of deaths.
Many Kyiv residents fear that Russia will attempt to destroy the city's water and sewage systems, as Moscow seeks new ways to create a humanitarian crisis. Some in Kyiv are discussing whether to temporarily move to the countryside if conditions in the capital become too harsh this winter. Few believe Russia will achieve victory this way, according to media reports. "The theory is that pain and exhaustion breed political capitulation," said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst and head of Gady Consulting. But experience since 2022, "and before that, a century of strategic bombing, suggests that sustained air attacks strengthen societies rather than break them, and nothing in the Ukrainian data suggests otherwise," he added.
In particular, polls show that the Ukrainian public has become more opposed to territorial concessions to Moscow in recent months.
Ukraine's long-range capabilities have expanded dramatically over the past year. Its deep-strikes campaign has expanded from oil refineries, energy export infrastructure, and missile component factories to Black Sea shipping and the warehouses of Russia's largest e-commerce chains, Wildberries and Ozon. Kyiv's stated goals are to disrupt military supply chains, cut off export revenues that fund Moscow's war machine, and cause widespread economic disruption that will make the war visible to the Russian population.
However, most Russia observers doubt that discontent among the country's population or business elite will prompt Putin to agree to a ceasefire. He is betting that he can suppress dissent and that the economy can withstand the pain longer than Ukraine can.
"The consequences of a long-range strike campaign for Russian society and the Russian economy would have to get much worse for it to come close to changing Putin's calculus," said Hannah Notte, a Russia expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
While several Russian analysts have recently stated that Moscow is failing to achieve its military objectives in Ukraine, "they were less concerned about the impact of the long-range strike campaign and more concerned about the lack of progress on the front," Notte noted.
The decisive variable in the war remains military manpower, Gadi added, including whether Putin will launch a large-scale mobilization in the coming months to double his ground campaign. "Long-range strikes are what both sides are doing because it's the only area in which they can still operate when the ground war has reached a stalemate," he concluded. "It will become increasingly destructive without being decisive."
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Video Summary
AI GeneratedThe air war between Russia and Ukraine has entered a destructive new phase characterized by relentless long-range strikes. While Russia targets civilian infrastructure and energy grids in Kyiv, Ukraine has expanded its \"Deep Strikes\" campaign against Russian oil refineries and logistics. Despite the mounting casualties and economic damage, analysts suggest these attacks are unlikely to be decisive.
