Army and government refuse to carry out Putin's orders over fuel shortage; chaos in Kremlin
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The fuel crisis in Russia is worsening amid Ukrainian attacks on oil refining infrastructure. In the Kremlin's worst-case scenario, this could lead to fatal consequences for the regime, according to Deutsche Welle.
The publication notes that gasoline shortages have already affected at least 30 regions across the country, and supply disruptions are increasingly impacting not only motorists but also businesses and logistics. Moreover, the August shortage wave differs from the previous one, which lasted from late May to mid-July. This time, the problems were particularly acute in Moscow and the Moscow region.
The author of the publication notes that the situation is gradually expanding beyond mere inconveniences for drivers. He also cites Oleg Grigorenko, editor of the independent Russian media outlet "7x7," who discusses the problems facing taxi services, courier services, and the construction industry, whose operations depend on stable gasoline supplies.
"It's not that there's no fuel at all. But it's clear there's a crisis," Grigorenko notes.
The situation is particularly dire in southern Russia. Local media reports hours-long queues at gas stations in the Krasnodar region. Authorities attribute this to a supposedly seasonal increase in demand, while local residents are calling the current tourist season a failure.
Igor Ananskikh, a representative of the State Duma Energy Committee, predicts that the situation will be normalized within two to three weeks. However, economist Nikolai Korzhenevsky, who left Russia after the outbreak of full-scale war, considers this scenario unlikely.
According to him, the problem already concerns fuel quality. Drivers are reporting engine damage after refueling with low-quality gasoline, and queues at Moscow repair shops are forming for months. Korzhenevsky sees this as a sign of a much larger problem in the Russian oil industry.
The economist also notes the decline in oil production. While Russia produced approximately 11.5 million barrels per day in 2019, this figure is now less than 9 million. He believes that further deterioration in the refining situation could lead to a drop in production to 8 million barrels per day, creating the conditions for a systemic economic crisis.
At the same time, the proposal to compensate for the deficit with imports from China or India, as DW reports, also raises doubts. Business journalist Vyacheslav Shiryaev notes that, under Russia's isolation, it will be difficult to meet the country's daily demand for approximately 200,000 tons of gasoline and diesel fuel.
Economist Igor Lipsits believes the consequences of the shortage could also have a political component. According to him, the authorities are already forced to create a separate supply system for security forces, civil servants, and emergency services, who can refuel without waiting in line. Lipsits compares this to the situation in the USSR, when privileged groups had access to special stores and warehouses.
According to Russian economists interviewed by DW, it is precisely the accumulation of public discontent that could potentially increase pressure on the Kremlin. Shiryaev believes that systematic strikes against targets of both civilian and military significance could significantly weaken the Russian economy.
He predicts that a large-scale diesel fuel shortage could paralyze railways, freight transport, industry and agriculture.
"If Ukraine destroys its entire oil refining infrastructure, Putin will discover that when he gives an order, it is not carried out," the economist predicts.
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