
Russian attacks were prevented; Ukraine turned its strategy of attrition against Russia to advantage
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Ukraine has successfully turned its strategy of attrition against Russia to its advantage . This is discussed in a column by American military historian Gian Gentile and political scientist Andrew Radin for The Hill .
They recalled that in the first years after the full-scale invasion, it was believed that Russia's natural, economic, and human resources would be its strength if the war dragged on, especially given Russian society's willingness to endure enormous human losses.
However, the authors believe the reality turned out to be different. It turns out that Putin's military economy cannot withstand military action and is "collapsing" amid the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign. They write that rumors of discontent among Russian oligarchs over this situation are true. The authors added that while rapid defeat of the enemy is the standard in military science, historical examples show that most wars were won by slowly weakening the enemy's manpower and equipment. Ukraine has been operating in this manner for two years now, destroying Russian soldiers faster than the army can muster them. They are also maximizing the economic costs of war.
"The strategy of attrition in Ukraine is also spreading to Russia's interior, where attacks on oil and gas infrastructure continue. Such attacks reduce oil exports, weakening the Russian economy's ability to finance the war," the article states.
Whether this will force Putin to compromise remains to be seen. The Russian army has not yet shown any internal resistance to its leadership, despite losing approximately 300 men daily during combat operations.
Drawing on the history of wars, including World War I, the authors argue that relying on a turnaround through a strategy of attrition can yield results. To achieve this, they argue, Ukraine needs to maintain its strategy, continue or even intensify long-range strikes, and its partners must continue to provide support. As a reminder, observers previously noted that the Ukrainian leadership has formulated a new war strategy that emphasizes not large-scale offensive operations, but rather the systematic weakening of Russia's military and economic potential. This approach is based on the idea of "strategic neutralization" of Russia's military capabilities. However, the new strategy does not envisage an invasion of Russian territory.
At the same time, Ukraine's campaign of strikes against Russian refineries is having an increasing impact within Russia, leading to fuel shortages across the country. The fuel crisis threatens Putin's attempts to control the situation and hide the costs of the war from ordinary Russians.
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