Russia is rapidly losing in energy war with Ukraine; Moscow is preparing for a major collapse
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Russia is rapidly losing its advantage in the energy war against Ukraine, and its economic and military problems are becoming increasingly acute. This is the assessment made by The Telegraph columnist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in his article, arguing that the latest Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure could be a turning point in the war.
According to the journalist, after nearly four years of full-scale war, Ukraine has significantly increased the capabilities of its unmanned forces. In recent days, unmanned systems have attacked dozens of oil and gas tankers in the Black Sea region and are also regularly striking oil refineries across Russia, from St. Petersburg to Siberia.
The article notes that Ukraine's strategy is aimed not only at reducing Russian energy exports but also at undermining the country's ability to sustain military action. According to S&P Global Energy, approximately 60% of Russia's oil refining capacity could be disabled. As a result, Moscow has already imposed a ban on fuel exports and is forced to import from Kazakhstan and India. Energy pressure, as noted in the publication, is compounded by the deepening financial crisis in Russia. The author points out that federal budget revenues from oil and gas fell significantly in the first half of the year, while the authorities sharply increased subsidies to contain fuel prices. At the same time, according to Reuters, Moscow is discussing the risk of a banking crisis in 2026.
The situation at the front, according to the author, is no less difficult. Russia continues to suffer heavy losses, and the rate of recruitment of new military personnel is falling. "It's as if we've run out of people. There are no more fools who will go for money," the Russian opposition publication Verstka recently wrote.
Against this backdrop, the author argues, the Kremlin may face a choice between military failure and declaring general mobilization. Atlantic Council expert Alan Riley warns that such a move could have serious domestic political consequences.
"Everyone knows this is a bloodbath. If Putin decides to mobilize, half a million people could take to the streets. A situation similar to 1917, when Russian troops refused to go to the front, could arise," the analyst notes.
The author of the publication notes that the Kremlin has failed to achieve its foreign policy goals—either splitting NATO or swaying US President Donald Trump to a position favorable to Moscow. According to Evans-Pritchard, if current trends continue, Russia could face not only a deepening economic crisis but also serious military and political challenges that could significantly alter the balance of power in Europe.
"If Russia's invasion of Ukraine ends in mere whimpers, it will be an undisguised defeat for the Sino-Russian authoritarian axis. This would be a powerful boost to a resurgent Europe, further devalue Trump's boasting, and restore a decent balance in transatlantic relations. The West might yet survive," the journalist concludes.
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