MLB Futures Predictions: Cy Young & Manager Predictions

It's time to take a look at some of the prediction markets over on Calshie Polymarket and take a look as to how they view some of the investment pieces in baseball this season. Tom, let's start off with the Cy Young Award winner. And this has shifted quite a bit. If you think about where we were a month ago, all of the investment tickets coming in on Cam Schlittler, that has shifted. And now Dylan Cease has moved ahead. And then the other name that's been significantly jumping, and boy, I mean, you talk about where he was a month ago or two months ago, Sonny Gray. Well, the Boston Red Sox, what a year he is having. He was a trade candidate a month ago, and now he's a Cy Young Award candidate. Now, I kind of feel like this is wide open going down the stretch. Maybe whoever the healthiest pitcher is at the end of the season wins. This one's going to be close. In the short term, I would say there's a very easy answer. If someone's out there looking to get in and out of markets quickly, you get a position, it improves, you get out, et cetera, et cetera. Cam Schlittler is going up against the Dodgers. If he puts up a great performance, his number is going to change. It's that simple. That's just how it works. Cease is going up against the Rays. The Rays are a great team. Cease is a great pitcher. But if Cease has a, quote unquote, bad performance, his number is going to decrease. So if you're looking to get in and out, you're buying on Schlittler. Hopefully, he has a great game. You're selling on Cease. He has a bad game against a great team in the Rays, and therefore, you get the best of both worlds. Yeah, it makes sense. Again, with the prediction markets, you can move up, move down. Things are trending kind of like the market. It's sort of the way that you play it there. Cy Young Award winner has taken a big shift. Now, after the month of May, it was Christopher Sanchez because Sanchez didn't give up a run in May. And then Sanchez, while he's still been good, has not been as good in June and July. So Jacob Mizorowski certainly has moved up very high to the top of this. You've got to keep an eye, of course, on Otani, whose numbers are just incredible but doesn't have the qualification maybe necessarily to even be involved in this category here. Again, a question of healthier. But provided, Tom, that Mizorowski is healthy, it seems like it's his award. I don't want to rule out him. Also, Chris Sale has been fantastic as well. Maybe that's where the investment is. Maybe Sale to finish second. Yeah, I would say it would be Sale or Burns as a deeper shot if you're looking just to get something that's going to improve their price as the season goes on. The same thing I said about Schlittler can be said about Chris Sanchez. He's going up against the Dodgers in the coming week if you want to get it now. He has a great performance against the Dodgers and shuts them out over seven innings and get out on Sanchez. I think Mizorowski will end up winning it, but that's not to say that you can't find better investment opportunities on a Sale, Burns, Sanchez from now until the end of September. We just talked about the American League Manager of the Year. And if you genuinely believe that it's going to be Kevin Cash, you've got a nice opportunity here because Will Venable is where the percentages lie in terms of the highest percentage. But there is Cash right there. I like Derek Shelton and I like him, but I just don't think he has any shot to win this. So I'd kind of be out on that. I think the twins go the other way. Probably one of those first two names. And if you really think it's going to be Cash, Tom, a nice opportunity here. Right. And the point you made about Will Venable, I think is very true. The gap between what we thought the White Sox were going to be and them theoretically winning the division, I think that is a significant gap and would cause him to win the award. Because it's a big accomplishment for how bad they were the past few years. And then winning the AAL Central is huge. So I think, again, the investment opportunity could be in Cash. But if the White Sox win the division, he will win the award. Another wide open one is the National League Manager of the Year. And who would have thought back in May that Don Mattingly would be the one that you consider? Don Mattingly has won a Manager of the Year in Miami. Meanwhile, Miami's Clayton McCullough is right there as well. If the Marlins make the postseason, potentially it could be him. Boy, there's a long way to go, Tom, in this season. And I just don't know. I think this is so wide open, I think you could probably take four or five guys and invest now and get out when they move up a little bit. And we haven't even talked about Ali Marmol. What about St. Louis? They're having a nice year, too. Yeah, I would be... I have no interest in Don Kelly, no interest in Walt Weiss in Atlanta. I don't think those are options. They could end up winning, but I just don't see a storyline compared to Don Mattingly taking over and vaulting this team to potentially winning the division. It's not like they're super far behind where they can't win the division in the Phillies. And Atlanta's running away with things. So I have most interest in Mattingly or dropping further down. And maybe Pat Murphy with Milwaukee, continuing just to put up big performances year after year, win the division and potentially vie for the best record in the league. I think the Dodgers will scale back on things. And I think that could put the Brewers in a spot again to have the best record.