This Will Define EVERYTHING... Padres Trade Talks

This will define everything Padres trade updates as they have a huge decision to make. Should they buy? Should they sell? What are the options? What are the pros? The cons? All that stuff. Let's talk about it. Hi, welcome back to another episode of Padres Digest with your host Andrew. So today it is a very hot day and we have a very hot topic. The thing everyone's talking about. Should we buy? Should we sell? I'll revisit this when we get closer to the trade deadline, but now it's the second half pretty much. Let's just take a look at what we have right now, which is a lot of disappointment, right? But let's just take a look at it, right? Before we get too deep into the video, though, please subscribe as always. Follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Padres Digest. Join channel memberships if you would like. And of course, this video is brought to you by Morgan & Morgan. 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So, shout out to people like Kevin Hasey, Dennis Lin, ESPN. We compile a bunch of data. And by we, I mean me and my best friend, Claude. So, here's a look at what the pros, the cons, the should we, should we not, who can we sell, who can't we sell. Let's take a quick look. And, of course, you guys give me your opinions. I know you will, but give me your opinions. So, by yourself, let's take a quick look, right? We're 48 and 48, exactly 500. We're 3.5 out of the final wildcard spot. Our expected record, basically, is 43 and 53. That is according to our expected runs and expected value in general. So, we're below average or below 500. But we do have the fourth easiest remaining schedule via TJ stats. So, I think got it via fan graphs. So, maybe that means something to you, right? But the deadline is August 3rd. You have three weeks to decide. Four teams stand between here and a wildcard spot. Preller said, all things are on the table. Him himself said that. So, by yourself, the case to buy. We are still alive. There are 3.5, or we're 3.5 games behind with three weeks left. Machado is heating up the last 14 games. Like, he's been on fire. He's almost at 20 home runs, which I feel like, I don't know if this is true or not, but in my head, it feels like this is the quickest he's gotten to 20. I might be wrong. But he is heating up, right? We closed the half, winning two of three from Toronto. We're riding a two-game streak into the break, which is big. Toronto is not doing great this year, but they are a good team. 2024 pulled off a turnaround from this same 50-50 mark. So, 2024, which is probably our best team, maybe ever, had a similar result at the deadline, or not the deadline, the all-star break at 50-50, or at 500. So, keep that in mind, but we'll come back to that. Now, we have the fourth easiest remaining schedule in baseball, like we said, and the core money is here either way. Tatis, Machado, Bogarts, Merrill, Cronenworth, like, they're here. So, I know it's not great for the case to buy, but 3.5 with the fourth easiest schedule is very tempting, right? Very tempting, which means this is very winnable. And like I keep saying, I do think this team has talent. It just hasn't been consistent, which is a huge problem, but we do have very good talent on this team. Now, here's the one you guys want, the case to sell. 29-37 since May 1st. This is a two-and-a-half-month slide, not a blip. They endured an eight-game losing streak. We saw that with a 3-23 blowout. Farm system is ranked 30th in baseball America. Run Differential says this is a 43-53 team, not a 48-48 team, and rentals like Morihone, Adam, Unduhar, Buehler, France walk for nothing this winter anyways, unless we re-sign them, but I don't know who out of this list we would re-sign besides maybe Morihone. So, yeah, I honestly think a lot more is leaning towards sell than buy, but there's hope. I think there's a monochrome of hope. That's a word, right? Monochrome. Now, is this actually like 2024? So, 2024, we are underperforming our peripherals. 2026, we are overperforming, so we were playing worse than we should have in 2024, and we're playing better than we should have this year. Last 30 days, we are 15th in weighted runs created plus, which means we're average, better, not a different team, and this offense has actually never been good to begin with. So, in 2024, at this point, our average, we were second in the league, we're at 30th. OPS, we were 11th, we're 30th this year. On base percentage, 10th, now we're 30th. Runs, 11th, now we're 30th. Hits, a first, now we're 30th. Slug, 10th, now we're not 30th, 29th. So, yes, 2024 had similar records, but nothing similar offensively. Absolutely nothing. This offense sucks, and I think we've all known that, right? So, who can we sell? So, the top chip is obviously Adrian Morojon, right? He'll get the best return on the roster, a lead arm, still just 27. I'm not saying we could get like a Soto-level return, but people want good relievers, like the Nationals, for example. They have a horrible bullpen, and especially closer. Morojon could fix a lot of their problems. They could be above 500, or I think they are above 500. Yeah, yeah, because they're above us. So, I think they could be a really good team if they had a really good closer, aka Adrian Morojon. So, we could get a big return from them, if we want to give them away. Moderate value, yes, we can get rid of Adam, we can get rid of Andujar, Bueller, France, but definitely not as much as Morojon. Thin return, yes, we could sell Yuki or Wandi, but probably not for that much. That's just a sell to sell at that point, honestly. Not moving, Michael King, mostly because of his contract, and he has been declining. Mason Miller, I just don't think he's going anywhere. Should he go somewhere? That's a different question, but I think AJ Peller wants to keep him, and I don't blame him. Never happening. Bogarts, Machado, Darvish, Musgrove, they're gonna be here till the end of time, like it or not. Unless we give them like a butt-ton of money, or eat a bunch of money, or give them some prospects to eat that money for their contracts, they're gonna be here till their contract is over. Maybe that sucks, maybe it doesn't. I don't know if I would throw Cronenwerth or Merrill or Tatis in that, because I think they are movable, just not easy. But I don't think those four are ever happening, in my opinion. So, what is my final thoughts on this? I think we should soft sell. I've been saying it, I haven't changed my mind. Reset for 2027. Sell the pieces with no 2027 value, Morihone headlines it. We can, I'm not saying get back to first place on the prospect list, but we can at least get up to like 20th. Or anything, you know? Better than 30th is good for us. Hold the key controllable players, no matter what the offers look like. Hold on to Mason Miller. The thing about Mason Miller is that he is super controllable and the best closer in the league. It cost us a lot to get him, and I saw reports that we're not gonna get as much in return if we trade him away. So why not just keep him? Offense, honestly, has not been good this year. Besides April. So the 2024 comp does not hold up. I don't see a huge turnaround. I can see a turnaround, but I don't see a huge turnaround happening. 10 game road trip where you face Kansas City, Atlanta, Miami. That's the last real gut check before August 3rd. So we will come back to this, say August 1st, and we will make some decisions. But for right now, it looks like soft sell, not a shell taco, but soft sell. Reset for 2027. We have new owners, hopefully a baseball season. It doesn't get canceled. New owners, more money, AJ Peller hopefully will have a new outlook. Maybe that's dangerous to have a new checkbook for him. I don't know. But they could also get rid of them, the new owners. So keep that in mind. But I think a refresh for next year is the right idea. And then maybe next year the contracts will be different. Salary caps. Maybe the Dodgers got to sell half their team to afford payroll or something. I don't know. But I think this year might be washed. It sucks, but it's true. But I want to know what you guys think. I know most of you are going to be team sell. But if you are team sell, why should we sell? Who do you want to sell? What can we get? If you're team buy, good luck defending yourself. I will try to help you out. But let me know why you want to buy. Or if you want to be both. Sell some people, buy some people. You let me know. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please subscribe as always. Follow us on Instagram, Facebook, Padres Digest. Thank you to our channel members. Join if you would like. And yeah, stream on Friday. So I'm gonna stream early on Friday because I have another video I'm gonna do during the stream. Just FYI. But yeah, thank you for watching. Goodbye. Bye. Go Padres. Please win more. Bye.