Gold Silver Selloff The Cycle Low Isn't In Yet But Cycle Work Points To 13 000 By 2031 33

Hey folks welcome to verified investing dot com my name is Gareth Soloway chief market strategist here now in today's video we're diving back into gold and silver gold is taking a beating today silver is down this is on the back of basically higher tensions in the middle east which is causing the US dollar to rise and interest rates to rise as oil moves up remember as oil moves up inflation expectations adjust higher and therefore rates are floating higher as well so this combination is obviously putting pressure on gold and silver to the downside and we've really seen this in the charts right you guys know I've been consistently saying that while we're near a major low pivot I still think both of these precious metals or semi-precious in the way of silver are going to go lower before we bottom out we'll discuss that a little bit more now before we get into things just a reminder folks that you have a chance here to still join the Gareth top squad right here on YouTube it's my premium YouTube you get a couple videos a week for just you as premium members and also a discount code every week and the one I gave out yesterday is still valid all right still valid for 20% off a service in at verified investing dot com so really some great benefits the idea is is the discount alone pays multiples of the cost of ten dollars a month for the premium YouTube all right into the action we go here let's take a look at gold look at gold here today big sell off two point five percent to the downside and notice the weakness here so recently we bounced off this technical support down here around four thousand even number makes sense right but the bounce did ever get up to resistance no just like over here it didn't get up to this resistance trend line now over here it did and then you could see here it hits you got a big bounce but it still couldn't get there it got close then hit it again and a shallower bounce and then ultimately down we go again and the idea here is that the chart is talking to us it is telling us that at least for now gold remains weak because it can't even go up into the ceiling of resistance here before it starts to come back in now the question will be when and if we break this trend line down here this is a bigger wedge pattern remember how wedge patterns work here guys and I'll draw one in here we have a down sloping trend line and an ascending or up sloping trend line price starts out wide with big moves right big moves but as it gets squeezed here it's getting tighter and tighter that builds like a pressure cooker to the point where at some point we're gonna either have a massive breakout or a massive breakdown right so essentially think about it like the the pressure is building here on gold inside of this wedge pattern okay now again I favor still a little bit more downside part of that is going to history right and again you could say this time is different but generally human psychology isn't different but if we go to the larger time frame here we can see that back in the nineteen eighty period be the drawdown of sixty six percent now I do agree that this period is much different the the obviously the inflation back then was significant and it's actually not as significant now but you have human the debt of the U.S. right debt of U.S. lack of fiscal controls more uncertainty about kind of just you know the fiat currency system all of these play into roles inclusive of is inflation going to stick around for longer period which again was there in the in the eighties the early eighties into that top from the late seventies as well but the point again is that this to me if this is has been a cycle top at fifty fifty six hundred we'd still likely has more to go what we want to do too is we want to look and see that as time goes on okay as time goes on we have shallower pullbacks and this is what I what I'm gauging here is that here you had a lot much much lower U.S. debt right and and spending and all that stuff right down here so we had a bigger drawdown on gold that makes sense sixty six percent here we had about a forty six percent drawdown right so you can see that as debt and Q. we was going on here the drawdown was shallower my guess is is we will see in the thirty percent drawdown on current levels on gold from the recent high and if we do that we're looking at basically this thirty seven percent which is right at that thirty five hundred level that's probably your bear market low of this cycle in addition notice this guys the bear market cycle and by the way I created a calculator I'm gonna be debuting on verified investing and also a major institutional research report on gold and when the next next cycle will occur how high will gold go but notice how long this cycle bear market was it was going from nineteen eighty to really we started to be topped out in twenty eleven then from twenty eleven to twenty twenty six so no notice again this was like thirty years thirty years thirty one years this was fifteen years and so it makes sense that this could be as short as five years before we really get our next peak now five years is to the peak remember that doesn't mean we're not gonna go up and take out this high in a shorter period of time which is what I think will happen within a couple years but ultimately again the idea here is is that will peak the next bull market cycle will peak in five years and it should be an incredible move the upside calculator that I created which again you guys will have full access to in not too long on verified investing that'll be it'll be this week sometime I believe but the idea here is that that that is it's basically projecting out that the next bull market high will be around thirteen thousand give or take that's really what I'm finding at least so again just something to keep an eye on there and that I mean think about that return if we do get to thirty five hundred thirty five hundred in a matter of I think it was about five years potentially to get to thirteen thousand is a very good return very very good return okay so that just gives you a rundown flipping back to the daily chart on gold here again gold big down day we're gonna be testing this level here we're basically at four thousand now but this trend line is descending so it's inching a little bit lower this is around thirty nine seventy five that breaks we should flush out to this level which again would be that thirty seven percent drawdown from this high pivot which would fit the criteria of a lower a smaller drawdown each cycle but also a drawdown of of reasonable amounts as well all right let's go to a couple other things here as we go through if we take a look at silver silver is getting pounded here to the downside and again nice drop on silver silver has support here but it's only minor this to me is a bear flag we did do a break of key support here and here and here broke down retraced which is exactly what you expect rejected and now basically what you're watching is whether or not we break this right here this little trend line connecting these lows right through these lows we get below basically fifty eight dollars we should flush to fifty four in the coming days fifty four comes where do I find that level very simple here in fact this high pivot right through there right so these two high pivots that's your next level it's right around fifty four dollars uh per ounce now again if we get through that we have another level at fifty dollars and then forty six forty six is basically the low end of what i'm seeing as as your drawdown doesn't mean it's going to be the low because we know fear and greed can make things go way below projected logic based targets but again right now my low end is forty six my high end target um for like a major low would be fifty four and let's be fair we've already gotten down close to that fifty four we got down to fifty five and change here so we've kind of kissed my my upper range but i still think there's one more flush coming in silver and we'll have to watch and see how that goes once we get down to let's say forty six to fifty four then i'm really going to start eyeing this down sloping descending trend line because once that breaks to the upside it should be game on for a much bigger move to the upside on silver all right so that's a run down there let's quickly do platinum and palladium um again platinum and palladium i've been swing trading a little but this again would be my bigger short-term buy zone right in here i'm kind of eyeing the low end of that just below fifteen hundred that should be significant significant support and then also if we look at palladium here uh we could see again palladium kissed my upper level i'm still gonna eye right right below eleven hundred as my lower level of significant support on this if we go to copper real quick for those of you that love your copper we can take a look here and copper remains remember everyone was so bullish i mean what's crazy here we can get rid of that trend line is that even when we were up here even the media and analysts were talking about how this is going to be this was going to be epic for sit for copper and i was like no it's at the upper end of a classic parallel it should get rejected sure enough price got rejected now it's actually making another bear flag here it should roll over and we should actually head eventually we're heading down to this five dollar ish area here which would be the low end of the parallel and i know that seems crazy but just imagine this imagine if all of a sudden let's say late this year early next year we see a slowdown a slight slowdown or a plateau on data center buildouts the cap x maybe doesn't go up as much as people think and the u.s economy just weakens a tiny bit what do you guys think's going to happen to copper right down especially economically if we see a global slowdown so i think there's good precedence to think copper is actually more favored to the downside in the next six to twelve months than to the upside all right guys i'm still on vacation but you can see obviously i'm not in cancun anymore i'm back in the u.s but now on the pacific coast the west coast of the u.s enjoying a little time out here after this week i'm back in the office all right thank you guys so much don't forget to join gareth's top squad to support my channel you guys are rock stars thank you so much i'll keep you posted