Gold Just Passed The Dollar As The World's Reserve - $13,600 Coming Sooner Than You Think!

Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. Now in today's video, we're gonna do everything related to gold. So I have some incredible things to unveil to you guys, many things that have not been in the media that should be known by every investor out there, whether you're into gold or not. In addition, we're gonna go over some charting and price target analysis for gold on its next move to the upside. And I think it's gonna happen a lot sooner than many of you expect. Before we do that, just a reminder, you can join Gareth's Top Squad right here on my YouTube and you get live Q&A, usually about one a week, exclusive videos, at least one a week, epic discounts, one a week, and swing trade chart alerts. When I find a great chart set up, I post it right up to members here in Gareth's Top Squad. So all of that, 10 bucks a month, you can't beat it. That's just the honest truth of it, folks. And I'll be doing my next Q&A either tomorrow or on Monday for Gareth's Top Squad members. All right, so we gotta get into gold. Let's start out with the chart here because I think this is important. The gold chart obviously has broken out here. Now it doesn't mean we can't retrace to the scene of the crime, but we know that at this point, the first step of the next bull run has started. In other words, the descending trend line here that capped us from our all-time high, that has now been negated. We've broken through it. Whether we pull back more or not is yet to be seen. A lot of that will have to do with interest rates. But what I wanna get into here, folks, is something that's even more important. There's some news headlines that have broken over the last three months or so that many people are not aware of, all right? And I think these are very important when understanding the importance of gold in the long-term scheme of the financial situation that the world is facing, meaning fiat currencies versus physical assets. The first one I wanna show you is fantastic. Take a look at this, guys. So gold has passed every other thing, including the U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, for the dominant holding of reserves in the world. In other words, countries are now holding more gold than anything else on their balance sheet. And I think that's very telling, because what it says is there's this understanding amongst big money or the geopolitical, the political elite that fiat currencies numbers or days are numbered. And I think this is something that deep down all of us know. I mean, we've been talking about it here on my channel for a long, long time, but now you're starting to see the flip. People or sovereign nations, countries are beginning to dump Treasuries and move away from holding the greenback and Treasuries as their major reserve currencies. You can see the Euro is at 15%, Treasuries at 22%, but now gold is at 27% of global reserves, the biggest holding, again, of anything out there. That's huge, folks. That is a monstrous change, and it is part of the denullarization process that is going on. Now, the next thing I wanna show you guys is this. This was not talked about almost anywhere, but in the recent Basel III, essentially what was done here is gold was moved to the first tier. And the first tier, basically you have tiers of essentially assets. And by gold getting raised up to the first tier, it gets elevated to the same as sovereign debt and cash in terms of its risk level. And this, again, is big countries and major players out there elevating gold to a position where they know is where, or essentially is what is going to matter in the future. Now, is it a year from now? Is it five years? It's gonna be a slow process, but essentially in Basel III, you now have gold at the same level per the institutional elites, per the institutional political players, the biggest names out there. They have now elevated gold to be in line with the top holdings out there in terms of risk level. And what that does is it essentially gives them the ability to use that in a functional reserve currency way, which is exactly what the previous thumbnail or image showed you. All right, so that's number two there, right there. Now, there is one more thing here and we have a lot to go over. We're gonna get into the charts and some even more fascinating stuff, but take a look at this. Now, this is very intriguing. Now, we know that the U.S. government is spending money like a drunken sailor, but what we don't know or what many don't know is that their gold holdings of the U.S., about 261.5 million ounces, has been valued at $42.22 since 1973. It has never been revalued. The reason why this is fascinating is because if it were to be revalued, and by the way, Scott Besant has floated this idea in 2025, and I would almost put my own money on this happening, is that he could literally make the U.S. have an additional on their balance sheet amount of $1.13 trillion just by revaluing the gold that is being held by the U.S. government. So that's a very intriguing aspect because when you're talking about a U.S. government that essentially has debt coming out of its ears and consistently trying to say, hey, listen, we've gotta be able to loan more, we gotta be able to sell more treasuries and bring in more capital, well, one way to up the balance sheet would be to revalue the gold here at current market levels. And again, Scott Besant floated this idea and this would be a way, at least in the short term, to shore up the bond situation that's going on. In other words, if the U.S. has more on its balance sheet, it would give it the ability in the eyes of buyers of U.S. debt to then come out and actually say, all right, well, they have this much of additional assets on their balance sheet, we will buy their debt because again, it's the balance sheet, right? So if you look at any company out there, any financially sound company, anytime they're looking to sell debt on the open market, you have the buyers of that potential debt looking at the balance sheet, well, what's the likelihood of being paid back? Now, this is only a short-term fix, I wanna stress that. 1.13 trillion basically buys the U.S. a short amount of leniency, but it could be used in the near term as a stopgap to continuing to bring on more debt for the U.S., all right, fascinating stuff. Now, before we get into more intriguing aspects, I wanna show you guys this. So what's driving the gold cycle right now and why are the cycles getting shorter and shorter? And if you break it down into numbers, we've seen again, the peak in 1980, the peak in 2011, the peak in 2026, essentially the cycles are becoming shorter and shorter. And what's driving that? Well, I mean, just compare anything, you can compare the fact that every year right now, we're now issuing 2 trillion in additional debt. The global money supply in the world is increasing 7% per year, fiat mistrust. All right, if you go back to 1980, I mean, you didn't really have fiat mistrust out there. People still believed in the dollar, right? Yes, interest rates were sky high, but that was actually a positive because it clamped down on inflation. It showed that the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, Volcker, were very focused on getting inflation down significantly. Now, they honestly, I mean, they say 2%, but they're okay with 3% or 3.3%. And in all fairness, we've been elevated for years and years. So there's this fiat mistrust that's continuing to kind of bubble up underneath the markets. Now, the one negative for gold out there, because these are all positives, right? But the one negative is the modestly positive real interest rates. But if we ever get in a recessionary period where inflation stays, let's say, at 2% to 3%, essentially, you're gonna have real interest rates, which are the difference between the 10-year, let's say, 10-year interest rate, and the inflation numbers. They would essentially go to zero, if not negative, which would be catastrophic, in my humble opinion, but very bullish for gold. So all of these factors kind of coming to fruition here. Now, one of the things that I did was I did a gold calculator. Some of you guys know about this, but it's for free on our website, verifiedinvesting.com. But one of the things here that's fascinating in regards to this is that when we look at this and we see what is going on, we look at a calculated format. And I wanna show you this, because essentially I have this gold calculator right here that I created. And you can see, force one is debt issuance. Force two and three is global money supply growth. Force four is fiat mistrust. And force five is real interest rates. Now, the beauty of this is, down here, you can set the current calculator. So we know that the peak on gold was right here. We had a 30% drawdown. You can see it right here at 3,900. That was the low on gold, essentially. And essentially, so there's your high, your low. And if you just keep the two trillion being issued at 7% global money supply growth, and the prevailing trend is fiat mistrust and doesn't increase, and real interest rates stay modestly positive, the cycle still gets shorter and comes to fruition at the next peak, would be just in 2031 to 2033, at $9,700. You can see the chart down here. It shows you exactly what I'm talking about. Now, this is, again, current conditions. Now, Garrett's base case, which I did a lot of extensive analysis on, and we can click on this, is it essentially shows that over the next three to five years, 2029 to 2031, the debt issuance per year is gonna start to move up significantly. And we already see that, right? Because you already have a scenario where gold, or I should say the U.S. debt, and this is even something more interesting here, but the U.S. debt is now at a point where interest payments alone every year are over one trillion. So it's inevitably, we're gonna see the issuance of debt increase over the next five years, right? And that, again, all I have it plugged out to be is just we're gonna start to go up to an average of 2.8 trillion a year. So it's only saying over the next five years, we're gonna average 0.8 trillion more, which seems very, honestly, very conservative. Global money supply from 7%, I think it's gonna go to 9%. So again, you're not gonna see a massive, massive amount of new money supply, but it's still gonna go up to almost 10% a year. Fiat mistrust is gonna accelerate over time, and I think we're already seeing that, and real interest rates drift to zero. By doing that in the calculator, it shows that our next peak here, okay? In fact, here, we need to adjust this too because we have to adjust the peak, right? It was only 30% of a draw down here. So our next target is going to be in 2029 to 2031, gold should peak at 13,600, all right? So that, and by the way, you can come in here and change all these. You can adjust as you see fit. You could go up, you can go down, whatever you want, feel free. And by the way, you do have to have a free account on verifiedinvesting.com, but aside from that, it's totally free. It's on the dashboard, is the gold calculator. Now, this is where things get even more interesting, right? So what would be a way we could value gold? And this might be the crux of everything I'm talking about here, guys. In fact, it's so fascinating to me. So the crux of valuing gold should be in terms of M2 money supply. Gold to M2 money supply. Now, check this out, guys. So we're gonna go back to our gold chart. Here we are. Now, I'm gonna take these lines off. What I wanna do is I wanna bring up gold and I wanna do it in terms, we should be viewing it in terms of US M2, which is US money supply. When we do that, check this out, guys, all right? This is fascinating, is, and we go to the bigger timeframe and you zoom out, look at this. So when you factor in gold's price versus M2 money supply, look at how high 1980 was. So, and again, why are we deciding on valuation here? I mean, like, why does M2 matter? Well, because that's the total amount of money in the system. So it makes sense that if you look at gold, you can't just look at it arbitrarily and say, oh, versus the dollar, it's this price, because remember, the dollar is against other currencies and they're all sinking. The dollar is getting weaker. Remember, a dollar in, you know, dollars have lost something like 50, 60% of their value. The dollar in your hands in buying power just in the last 30 years. If you go back to the 50s or the 40s, you're down 99% on your US dollar of real value. A dollar is still a dollar when you look at it, but what it buys has declined. Same thing with every fiat, okay? Now, the reason here is we're looking at it in terms of M2. So what's gold in terms of total money supply? Because that's the real value. And you can see back here when gold popped up here. Now, I wanna show you this. If we look at the move here, right? So the current level, let's just go from our current level. And we say, okay, how much does gold need to go up to get back here to this high to be equal? So this would be equal where gold to M2 money supply was equal to 1980. You need to go up over just over 200% in that ratio. Now, what's fascinating is if we bring up gold and we just go back to our gold chart, and we look at this and we say, okay, from current levels, you need to go up 200%. Where does that take us? All right, so let's do that now. We have to bring this down significantly because of that, all right? So we have to bring it all the way down here now. In fact, you know what? We're gonna start right here, bear with me. So if we take this and we go from current levels and we go up, right? And we're gonna have to keep going up. All right, so where does this go? All right, now we're up 70, 80%. Okay, now we're up 100, 150%. Okay, now look at this. Look at this, 200, I think was it 207%. What was it? Right here. Look at this. What price is gold at? Do you guys see that? Look at that. 13,000, what is it? 600, 13,600. Now, remember that. So to be equal 13,600 is where gold has to go. Now go back to the calculator. All right, let's bring that up. Where did the calculator show? And by the way, I just discovered this even after I did the whole calculator thing and I actually was just doing these number crunching. But look at this. Peak, what price? Is that spooky or what? Like legit, that is spooky stuff. So listen, I'm not gonna pretend to know in the near term is gold gonna go up here or down here. All right, right now we've hit some support, we've hit some resistance, we've chopped around. What I do know is if the 3,900 remains below and everything increases reasonably in terms of fiat mistrust, in terms of M2 money supply like I laid out in my base case, gold is gonna head up and multiple factors here now showing it, 13,600 by 2029 to 2031. Incredible stuff. All right guys, hope you found this useful. I love this stuff. I mean, I've been number crunching today like crazy. Check it out, hope you enjoyed it. Leave your comments below on your thoughts on this. I think we all agree fiat is in trouble. The question is, where do we go? And gold, while it could go a little bit lower in the near term, to me it's one of the main answers to protecting ourselves in what is coming in the next five years. Have a great rest of your day guys. Have a great weekend. I'll talk to you soon, take care.