Silver: $100 Or $50? The Range Decides Everything And I Reveal The Likely Move!

Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist here. Now in today's video, we're going to deep dive into silver, maybe touch on copper as well. But silver is my main target today because it's inside of a range that will determine whether or not we see a big move back to $100 an ounce over the next couple months or potentially go down as low as $50 per ounce. Again, in a range, which way does it break? Before we do that folks, just a reminder, if you're interested in supporting the channel right here, join Gareth's top squad in addition to supporting me and what we do with technical analysis, you get access to live Q&As, which I do at least once or twice a month, exclusive videos, at least one video, maybe two videos every single week, epic discounts for verified investing, ones that are not given anywhere else, and then swing trade alert posts right here on YouTube. So all of that for $10 a month is yours if you support the channel through Gareth's top squad. All right, so let's get into the charts and this is where things get very, very interesting, right? Is that we've seen silver break out of a wedge, but just because it breaks out of a wedge from technical analysis, does that tell us that we're going right back to all-time highs? And the answer is historically when you look at the data, it doesn't necessarily say it. It says it's on the precipice of a break point to the upside, but it doesn't tell you that it can't make a move to the downside. So let's jump into the charts and take a look. The first thing is we can see that we did break out of a descending wedge and generally these are good signs, right? It's basically we were in a pretty steep downtrend. We've broken the initial stages. Now, we still haven't made higher highs just yet or higher lows, but it is something we want to keep an eye on. Now, what I mean by that is you have a high, lower high, and even here, this is still a lower high. Now, granted, we're above the wedge pattern, but you're still in what we would consider a downtrend. Same thing here, low, lower, low, lower, low, and even right here was a slightly lower low. Now, we could see a dip that then moves back up and makes a higher low. That would be step one in confirming a change in character or a change in trend for silver, but I will say this and I'm just erasing this because I love keeping my charts as neat as possible. So my analysis can be as clear as possible. But one of the things that's concerning me is that we're now into a zone, which is going to determine whether or not we see that big move up or the big move down right here. Here's your resistance. This low pivot, this low pivot here, and you can see right here, this high pivot and look at right there. We went right up into it, hit it and got rejected. So this is your line in the sand to the upside. If you can break this line, I think honestly, you trade easily back to 89 bucks here, potentially back to 96 and eventually easily back to $120 per ounce. Now on the downside, what level are we looking at? Well, very clearly, check this out guys. I love this stuff and this is just so cool to see. But what we can see right here is we have a downside channel here or or kind of zone and it goes from this low pivot here, which was back in March. We retested it right here in June. Then we broke below it and it showed how it could work as resistance. So here it was support support breaks. Then it becomes resistance and we come up again resistance. We break above it and look support up support and up again. Now curling over now what this tells us simply put in technical analysis is that we are now range bound, right? We're range bound on silver between basically 62 to $64 an ounce and basically 70 to $72 an ounce. So the thing is you're looking inside of that range for which way price actually can break. So if we go back to the charts, what we're really isolating down here is do you come down here and break this in which case that's the bad part. That's where you could go down retesting this low at $55. $56 an ounce potentially trading down here to $50 an ounce. How crazy is that down to this level here? Now, there is precedence. If you look at history in the charts, we oftentimes see the initial break point which gets everyone very very bullish and then you see a flush that takes out the previous low to wipe out all those those investors that jumped off sides too quickly thinking. It was an easy breakout all-time highs and they get flushed all the way down to the retrace to the scene of the crime. Now, why do I call this the retrace to the scene of the crime because this descending white trend line we broke out and tendency is for charts very often to come back and retest that same line. In this case, it would be at a new low of this cycle on silver. Okay. Now on the other side, if we can break here, that's just gravy. Eventually, what we're going to see is you could you could make a case. Here's a high. Maybe we take out that high and make a higher high eventually trying to take out these levels. That would be the bullish case. But one of the things that has me a little bit concerned here on the charts of silver is that you potentially have a head and shoulders pattern forming. Now, in technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern is a very obvious pattern. It's a head and shoulders pattern and it's a bearish pattern. Right now, granted when it occurs at the lows, it has a slightly higher failure rate when you look at statistical norms, but ultimately the pattern still has to be recognized and regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, the true investors, the elite among us are always looking logically at the data, not at what they hope happens, right? We always want to choose our book, right? So for a long something, we're going to be bullish no matter what, or we want to be if we're, you know, short something. We want to always be bearish, but the answer is the charts tell us the truth and that's how you become a good investor. So we look back at the chart here. And what I'm talking about is this pattern formation this here. There's your shoulder. There's your head and are we curling over to form our right shoulder shoulder head shoulder. That's your formation. Now, what's tricky here is that if we break this, you can actually calculate your downside target. So what you do here is you draw your neckline in your neckline goes from one armpit to the other right through here. I'm going to put it in orange so that it can really stand out right there. So you see that? Okay, and I'll even use the tool here. We'll even draw it out via the head and shoulders tool. So here's your head and shoulders tool. We go up. We go down. We go up here. We come down. There is your head and shoulders pattern via the tool that most of our trading softwares have, right? So again, that's really the essence of it. There. It is right there right before you. Now, what you do to measure your target is you take the high of the head, which is the highest point. You drop a plumb line straight down to the neckline. Now, remember the neckline and I'm going to get rid of this. The neckline is the connector between each on basically on either shoulder, right? That low point where it goes up to the head and then comes down here on the other side that low point where it forms the head. What you do is you take that distance and wherever it breaks, you then essentially assume a measured move. So let's just say it breaks over here and this is a speculative move, right? We don't know if it's going to break but I have to look at the chart and see. So if it does break this tells us we're going down. Now, what's interesting is I always look for synergies. I say, well, what's down in this range? If it does play out, is there a level that makes sense for Target to be hidden? The answer is absolutely. Look at this. It's literally right back to pivot low pivot low. This would be technical support. Now, this doesn't get us to the $50 level. We would likely see a bounce off of this and then we'd have to watch to see if this level gets broken and if it does, that's where you start to see a move potentially down to $50. Now, a couple other things to go over here. When you compare gold to silver, gold has been the rocket ship, which is very unusual because usually silver is the bigger mover. But what we're seeing is there's more and more concern for pure play diversification against fiat currencies. There's worries about the bond market. You have the government jumping in and trying to buy more billions of long and bonds back to affect the yield curve. These are all things that tell you that governments know the fiat currency scenario is on basically life support. Now, granted life support will likely last 5-10 years, but it's kind of the beginning of the end, if you will. Now, as we continue through here, silver is likely to be at least if you're focusing on the fiat aspect, the underperformer, which gives it more credence to potentially going down to $50 than a lot of people would think. The reason I say that again is because if the narrative of silver and the data centers and the demand from data centers, the demand in other areas, if the economy slows down right there, the industrial side of silver, which is, remember, silver is let's say half industrial, half currency, basically store value. So you have a 50-50 versus gold. It's really just a store of value. That's what it is. It's a way to diversify against the risk of fiat currencies. So you have this other aspect and that's the concerning aspect is that at what point does the AI spend start to slow down? At what point does the US economy or the global economy start to slow down? Because these are all factors that would potentially trigger further downside on silver. So we'll have to keep an eye on these, but it certainly is interesting. Again, I don't and just to be straight. I want to be I want to be open and honest and I feel like I have to reiterate. So no one goes crazy here in the comments, but essentially silver is in a holding pattern to summarize. We don't know which way it's going to break. We're watching as a trader. I am focused in between the levels of basically 72 and $70 and 62 and 7 is $64 that range Silver's right in between. Okay, depending on which way it breaks is going to be the determining factor for the next big move. If we break to the downside, the head and shoulders would have formed and the break point tells us we're headed to 55. If we break 55, we're touching 50. Okay, on the upside, if we can break out, we get the potential for a higher high, which then signals a bottom and we can potentially move as high as $100 per ounce. If you're asking which way I'm angled again, I'm waiting to see. I do have a slight negative bias on silver here based on my economic Outlook and analysis overall. All right, but obviously the charts are the arbiter of truth here. We got to follow through and see where they go. I did promise you guys quickly on copper. Take a look at this. In fact, let me pop this open here so we can go over the copper chart that I wanted to go over right here. This is amazing folks. So what we're seeing is a tightening wedge on on copper. Now, I am actually bearish on copper. You can see one, two, three, four, five, six, seven hits of this trend line. It's squeezing price ascending wedges have a higher probability of breakdown. And when they do break, look at the vertical nature of this. This would potentially see a breakdown. Now, it could go. My guess is we do go up a little higher on copper. You're touching the $7 level. But once this touches, it becomes a hard sell. And once you break this lower trend line around 670 675, the floodgates open to the downside. And if we do see this, it would reinforce the silver angle, which is that the US economy or global economies could be on the verge of weakening. You might say, well, why would they weaken? Well, I mean, look at yields yields use. The Fed uses that to slow the economy down and the market is doing it for the Fed, regardless of whether the Fed hikes next week or not. The higher yields are slowing the economy. It's just the nature of sucking in liquidity and lowering the amount of liquidity in the system, which is basically a signal or a trigger for more economic activity. So it's out there folks. It's out there. It's coming. I don't know when the slowdown will come, but I'm watching copper washing silver here. 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