Buying a Home in West Valley Arizona? The Arizona Housing Market Just Changed!

Hi everyone, welcome back to my channel. Whether you live here in Arizona's West Valley, you're thinking about buying a home here, or you're somewhere across the country wondering if Arizona's the right move, this market update is for you. Every month I dig into the numbers, but my goal isn't just to give you the statistics, I want to help you understand what they actually mean. If you already own a home here, what does this mean for your home's value? If you're thinking about buying, is now a good time? And if you're thinking about selling, I want to help set your expectations because this market looks very different than it did just a few years ago. So today we are going to take a look at what's happening across some of the West Valley's most popular master plan communities. And before we jump into each community, I wanted to touch on a couple things that I'm seeing across the Valley. The first is seller concessions, and this is something that I spend a lot of time explaining during listing appointments because most sellers don't even know what that is or how it affects what they actually walk away with at closing. Right now, 54% of all homes that sold in June included a seller concession with the average seller contributing about $10,000. So what is a seller concession? It's money that the seller agrees to contribute towards a buyer's closing costs or to help buy down their interest rate. And of course that is all negotiated as part of the purchase contract. Now, the reason I bring this up is because when you see your neighbor's home sold for let's say $600,000, that doesn't always mean the seller walked away with $600,000. The sales price is not always the whole story. What they actually got in their bank account is probably much less. The other trend I'm keeping an eye on is foreclosures. They've been increasing and I too have seen the headlines, so we are watching it. However, they're still nowhere near the levels that we saw back in 2008. And one of the challenges for some homeowners today that I'm seeing is that if they bought near the peak of the market in say 2022, and now they need to sell maybe sooner than they planned, they may not have built enough equity to cover commissions, closing costs, repairs, and potentially those seller concessions we just talked about. That doesn't automatically lead to foreclosure, but it can make selling a much more difficult decision than it was a few years ago. It's definitely something that has been a factor with some of my sellers and I'm going to continue to watch that. Now let's take a look at each community because while the overall market tells one story, every community has its own trends and that's where I think you're going to find the most value. Let's start with Verado. If you're not familiar with it, Verado is one of Buckeye's most sought after master plan communities and it's located at the base of the White Tank Mountains and it's known for its small town feel. It has a super cute main street, two golf courses, miles of hiking trails and walking trails, there's great restaurants, community events, and it has lots of parks. Looking at the numbers, the year-to-date median sales price is sitting around $529,500 and that's actually down about 4.6% from this time last year. 35 homes sold in June and year-to-date sales are actually up about 3.4% so buyers are still purchasing in here. Inventory still remains high in here. There are currently 182 homes on the market which works out to a little over six months of inventory. Sellers, you have quite a bit of competition so keep that in mind when you're preparing to list your home and also homes are taking about 91 days to sell on average and most are closing between 95 and 98% of list price. The good news is well-priced, well-presented homes are selling and they sell quickly. If you're thinking about buying, this is actually a great time because it's hot and people don't like looking for homes in triple digits. Unlike other places in the country where the summer is busy, Arizona's buyer pool starts to dry up so if you are a buyer, not only is the competition for homes lower but the chances that you're going to get a good deal from sellers is a lot higher because they don't want to have their home sitting all summer long. Trust me also, I realize that it's not fun to shop in high temps but if you can stomach it, you're going to be thankful that you did come fall when all of those snowbirds return and everyone is shopping for homes. And if you're thinking about selling, I usually advise sellers to hold off if they can until maybe early fall but if you can't, I'd recommend starting very competitive in terms of your pricing strategy rather than trying to squeeze every last dollar out of your list price because buyers have tons of options. There's not as many of them out there right now and if your home isn't positioned well, they'll just move on to the next one. Now let's head over to Victory. This is the 55 plus side of Verado and even though it's active adult, don't picture a quiet retirement community. Victory is built around an active lifestyle. It has golf, pickleball, resort style pools, fitness centers, restaurants, clubs, and events happening all year long and it's one of the many reasons so many people from out of state choose to retire here. Looking at the numbers, the year-to-date median sales price is sitting around $562,500 which is down about seven and a half percent from this time last year. Now keep in mind Victory is a much smaller community than Verado so the median price can swing quite a bit depending on what types of homes sell each month. We had 24 homes sell in June and year-to-date sales are actually up about 20% so demand is still really strong in this community. And one thing that really stood out to me this month is that 11 of those 24 homes that closed were brand new construction, almost half. So builders are still very active in Victory so if you're thinking about buying here, I wouldn't just look at the resale homes, I'd also compare what the builders are offering because sometimes their incentives can make a really big difference. It really just depends on what you're looking for. There are about 66 resale homes currently on the market plus builder inventory and homes are taking about 88 days to sell. If you're thinking about buying in Victory, I would compare everything, not just price. Builders are giving lots of incentives but you also look at resales where you have the lot, the landscaping, the window treatments, outdoor living space, and upgrades that have already been completed. Those things can really add up after you move in. And if you're thinking about selling, remember you're not just competing with your neighbors. In many cases you're also competing with those builder incentives. So that means you have to price your home correctly and make it stand out from day one. That's going to be really important. Next let's head over to Vastancia in Peoria, Arizona. If you're not familiar with Vastancia, it's another award-winning master plan community with beautiful mountain views, golf, miles of walking trails, great schools, and easy access to Loop 303. It's popular with everyone from young families to retirees because there's really something for just about every stage of life there. Looking at the numbers, the year-to-date median sales price is sitting at around $610,000 which is actually up about two percent from this time last year. And one thing that really stood out to me is buyer demand. 39 homes sold in June. Year-to-date sales are up almost 40 percent and that tells me that buyers continue to be really attracted to this community. Now they are still building in here. Eight of those 39 homes that closed were new construction so if you're thinking about buying in Vastancia, I would definitely compare both resale homes and what the builders are offering before you make that decision. There are currently 137 homes on the market which works out to just under six months of inventory and homes are taking about 90 days to sell. If you're buying, you've got choices and room to negotiate but this is still a community that's attracting a lot of interest. If you're selling, the good news is buyers are here and the key is making sure your home stands out. So pricing it correctly from day one and presenting it well are still the biggest factors in getting it sold. It has to look better than your competition. Now let's head over to Trilogy at Vastancia and again this is a 55 plus community. Trilogy has a completely different feel than Vastancia. It's an established gated community built around golf, beautiful landscaping, a lot more water features, two recreation centers, and a very active social lifestyle. They stopped building here in 2022 so if you are looking for a brand new home, you are not going to find that in Trilogy but it is one thing that people notice when they drive through the gates and that's how lush and established the landscaping feels. Looking at the numbers, the year-to-date median sales price is sitting at around $659,500 and that's down about a percent from last time this time last year and 16 homes sold in June and year-to-date sales have remained relatively steady which tells me that demand in here has been pretty consistent. There are about 48 homes currently on the market. Homes are selling in about 68 days and with just under four months of inventory, this is actually one of the tighter markets that we're going to cover today. If you're buying, don't assume every seller is desperate just because the overall market favors buyer. Trilogy is one of the stronger resale markets that we're seeing right now and if you're selling, you should feel pretty encouraged because compared to several other communities we've talked about today, you have pretty much less competition which really should help support your home value as long as it's presented well and you put in that effort up front to make it look move-in ready. Now let's head over to Estrella Mountain Ranch in Goodyear. This is one of Arizona's largest master plan communities. It's tucked up against the Sierra Estrella Mountains and it has two large lakes, miles of walking and biking trails, they have golf, resort style pools, fitness centers and one of my favorite things about Estrella is just it feels removed from the hustle and bustle of the city. If you don't mind being about 20 minutes south of the I-10 freeway, it really offers a lot of value in this community. When we look at the numbers, the year-to-date median sales price is sitting at around $495,000 so under $500,000. That's down about 3% from this time last year and what really jumps out is the number of homes that sold. 47 homes closed in June. That makes Estrella the busiest community we're covering today and year-to-date sales are up about 20%. Now here's something sellers need to pay attention to. 16 of those 47 homes that closed were brand new construction and that tells me that builders are still a significant part of this market. So if you're selling a resale home, you're not just competing with your neighbors. Once again, we've covered that. You are also competing with these builder incentives which can be really really good. Looking at the current 170 homes on the market, they're taking 81 days to sell and they're selling for about 95 to 97 percent of list price. We're their 55 plus community inside of Estrella. It's much smaller and quieter than the main community with nine beautiful little lakes, there's walking paths, pickleball, indoor lap pool, resort style amenities and a really peaceful feel. Residents also do get access to Estrella's amenities so it's kind of the best of both worlds. Looking at the numbers, the year-to-date median sales price is sitting at around $424,000. That's down about 3% from this time last year. 15 homes sold in June and a large percentage of the sales were under $500,000 which tells me that those buyers are still choosing this community for the affordability factor. They are still building in here as well and of course they're offering those incentives. So resale sellers need to be aware that buyers are comparing both options before making a decision. There are about 42 homes showing on the MLS right now. They're taking about 120 days to sell and they're selling for about 95 to 97 percent of list price. If you're thinking about buying, this is one of the more affordable active adult communities in the entire West Valley and I definitely would compare resale homes with the builder inventory before making your decision. If you're thinking about selling, I'd keep a close eye on what those builders are offering because those incentives can really influence how buyers are going to compare your home to a brand new one. That's where the seller concessions come in. Next, let's take a look at Pebble Creek. This is a gated 55 plus community in Goodyear, Arizona known for its three 18-hole golf courses, resort style amenities, 36 pickleball courts, tennis and a very active social lifestyle. Looking at the numbers, this median sales price is sitting at around $550,000 which is actually up just under a percent from this time last year. 21 homes sold in June and year-to-date the sales are also up slightly so buyer demand has remained steady in this community. There are 71 homes on the market which works out to just about 3.1 months of inventory and that's one of the lowest inventory levels of all the communities we are covering today. Homes are also selling in about 65 days making Pebble Creek one of the stronger markets in the West Valley right now. And if you're thinking about buying, you may not have quite as much negotiating power here as you do in some of the other communities that we talked about but buyers are still benefiting from today's market with opportunities to negotiate repairs and get those seller concessions. And if you're thinking about selling in here, this is one of the better position communities that we've looked at today because values have remained fairly stable, inventory is relatively balanced and well-priced homes are continuing to sell. Finally, let's head over to Sterling Grove in Surprise. If you're not familiar with Sterling Grove, it is a gated Toll Brothers community and it's built around a beautiful golf course and kind of a country club lifestyle. It offers resort style pools, pickleball, tennis, fitness facilities, they have a restaurant and some absolutely beautiful white tank mountain views. It's also one of the newest luxury communities in the West Valley so there's still quite a bit of new construction happening here. Looking at the numbers, the year-to-date median sales price is sitting at around $820,000 which is actually up nearly 14% from this time last year. Before everyone gets excited about that number, remember this is a luxury community with a relatively small number of sales so just a few high-end closings can move the median quite a bit. Only eight homes sold in June while there are currently 98 homes on the market and that works out to about 14 months of inventory which is by far the highest of all the communities we're covering today. So to me, that's the biggest story. There's a lot of beautiful homes for buyers to choose from and because builders are still active here, resale sellers have another layer of competition to think about. If you're thinking about buying, I would take your time. Compare those resale homes with builder inventory and incentives and don't be afraid to negotiate. There are lots of opportunities in this market to get a screaming deal on a resale and if you're thinking about selling, pricing is everything. In a community with nearly 14 months of inventory, buyers have choices and if your home isn't priced competitively, they're just going to move on to the next one. If you live in one of these communities or anywhere in the West Valley and you're curious what your home might actually sell for in today's market, not what Zillow says it's worth, I'd be happy to put together a custom market analysis for you. We'll look at recent sales, what's currently competing with your home and what today's buyers are likely willing to pay so that you can make a really informed decision whether you're thinking about moving now or you're just planning ahead. My name is Michelle Seymour and I am an Arizona realtor specializing in Arizona's West Valley. If you're thinking about buying, selling or relocating here, I'd love to be a resource for you. If you found this update helpful, I would really appreciate it if you would give this video a thumbs up and consider subscribing. I put these market updates together every month to help you stay informed about what's happening in our local market. Thanks so much for watching and I will see you in the next one.