New Builds Are Struggling Phoenix real estate market update

Is new construction in trouble? New home sales just slid to multi-year lows, builders like Lennar are selling homes at the cheapest prices since 2017, and Phoenix seller concessions hit nearly 55% in June. In this week's Phoenix Real Estate Market Update, I break down what's happening with new builds, the latest Case-Shiller numbers for Phoenix, mortgage rates, and exactly what it all means if you're thinking about buying or selling in the Valley.

Here's what we cover this week:

New home sales fell 7.3% from April to a multi-year low, with new-construction supply now sitting at 10.3 months — a strong buyer's market nationally. I explain what "months of supply" actually means for you, why Lennar rolled its average price back to 2017 levels (with nearly 13% in incentives), and why builders are competing so hard on price and rate buydowns right now. We also look at Phoenix building permits, record-high seller concessions, the Case-Shiller index showing Phoenix softening, where mortgage rates stand (~6.54%), and the Cromford Market Index showing which Valley cities are buyer's vs. seller's markets.
⏱️ Chapters
0:00 – Is there trouble with new construction?
0:40 – New home sales hit a multi-year low
3:30 – Why Lennar is selling homes at 2017 prices
7:00 – Housing starts & permits: single-family vs. multifamily
9:30 – Phoenix building permits
11:00 – Seller concessions surge (Phoenix at ~55%)
14:00 – Case-Shiller: where Phoenix home prices stand
16:30 – Mortgage rate update
18:00 – Cromford Market Index: buyer's vs. seller's markets by city
20:00 – What this means for you