Ukrainian drones in Siberia are the last straw for Putin; Ukraine destroys Russia's Achilles heel
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Recently, several Ukrainian drones successfully attacked Russia's largest oil refinery in the Siberian city of Omsk. Air defense systems were virtually nonexistent there, as Russian authorities believed the refinery was too far from Ukraine to be in danger.
According to The Wall Street Journal, this strike marked a significant expansion of Ukraine's deep strike range. Until now, these had been limited to European Russia, within approximately 1,600 kilometers of Kyiv-controlled territory. But Omsk is nearly 2,400 kilometers away as the crow flies. Meanwhile, according to Fire Point, the maximum range of the Ukrainian drones used in this operation is 3,400 kilometers.
"This means that vast additional Russian territory, including the core of the oil and gas industry in Western Siberia and hundreds of key military installations, will also need to be protected from Ukrainian airstrikes – at a time when Russian air defenses are already depleted by Kyiv's relentless campaign of drones and missiles," the The Wall Street Journal notes. This year, all major oil refineries in European Russia have suffered, with gasoline production falling by at least a quarter, leading to long queues, shortages, and rationing across the country. Diesel fuel shortages are also starting to emerge: Moscow announced an export ban on Wednesday.
"In some ways, the strike on Omsk could well be the final straw. It's certainly significant, and the further the Ukrainians strike, the more serious the situation becomes for the Russian energy system," said James Henderson of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Kyiv's expanding deep strike campaign, hitting targets across Russia, is combined with a parallel medium strike campaign focused on occupied southern Ukraine and Crimea, at ranges of between 80 and 240 kilometers. "Russia has now lost both operational and strategic depth. Russia only has a limited number of air defense assets, and they can't all be deployed on the front line. The more territory Russia now has to defend, which is essentially the entire route to Vladivostok, the more permeable the front line becomes, meaning it will be even easier for Ukraine to move ammunition through Russia's rear," said retired Royal Air Force Air Marshal Edward Stringer.
As the WSJ notes, new targets within Ukraine's reach include Russia's main liquefied natural gas terminal on the Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic, the country's main oil and gas production facilities in Western Siberia, pipeline hubs and pumping stations, and some of Russia's most important military industrial facilities.
At the same time, oil refineries remain Russia's Achilles heel, economists say. Because the Russian economy has become accustomed to cheap fuel, subsidies—including those needed to support farmers and airlines—can easily reach several billion dollars per month, just when revenue from petroleum exports is disappearing.
"The fuel shortage will also lead to a shortage of fuel for the army, disruptions in the delivery of consumer goods, including food, and we see that farmers are already facing fuel problems," said Russian energy expert Mikhail Krutikhin. Ukrainian and Western officials hope that at some point – perhaps even this year – such mounting pressure might force Putin to end the war.
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