Gold Miner GDX Analysis Major Oil Trade Near Term With Long Term Forecast Natural Gas Setup

Hey folks welcome to verified investing dot com my name is Gareth Soloway chief market strategist here now again all week I'll be coming to you from my vacation but nonetheless I want to get you the information on the charts and let's be honest either way I'm looking at the charts might as well do a video and keep you informed I do love technical trading enough to do it on vacation all right into the action we're going to cover today we're going to briefly look at the S&P 500 but overall I'm going to focus more on gold miners oil and natural gas so those are the key components in today's video we'll touch on other things as well but suffice it to say right now in the early trading action we're seeing the S&P 500 trading just slightly higher on the day and again you can see right here a little bit of an uptick on the ES futures nothing major here this is more of kind of July 4th hangover light volume is getting the markets to see a small rebound we are seeing a little bit of a move higher in names like Sandisk and Micron if we look at those briefly here we can see again you can see initially in the early pre-market we were up much higher but have faded but still net green from the close late last week all right so again we're seeing a little bit of a resurgence in the memory names but remember there's some key factors here this week SK hynix which is a monster size company and direct almost identical competitor to micron will list its ADR shares advanced depository receipt receipts here in the United States for a twenty nine billion dollar offering so they'll be offering twenty nine billion dollars that's almost half of what space x did on their IPO so there's more shares coming to the public that need a essentially a home or investor liquidity to soak it up and think about a sponge that's just getting you know more and more drenched with water to the point where you hold it up and it just drips out of that sponge and that's what I fear is going on in this market and I think that's going to be a headwind for these memory plays all week yes you'll have bounces but again more supply coming on the market via shares from SK hynix is going to be problematic for micron and sandisk throughout the next week or two we'll also get the fed minutes this week as well as some other economic data but let's jump into a couple other charts so let's go over here quickly touching on gold gold today a little bit of a move higher but again notice we're just staying within this wedge pattern so we're watching as a technician which direction do we break do we break above this okay breakout game on or do we come back in and re-attack this lower level and potentially see a break down looking at silver before we go to the miners look at silver folks doing exactly what I said it would coming back to the 63 64 level right here this was former technical support here here and here breaks down retraces to what we call the scene of the crime essentially the break point and here is where it's likely going to find resistance between 63 and 64 now let's look at the miners here the gdx now the gdx is intriguing here for a couple reasons number one we did have a trend line breakdown on this chart right so if you take a trend line right here look at the beauty of this trend line by the way I love how these trend lines show us that they are indeed important and the reason I say that is because you have this low pivot connected to this low pivot and it's very obvious low pivots you find by finding v kind of moves like that so it's the lowest point in recent history notice how price went all the way back up and here it was up and then had one bigger correction before it continued on its way that's a clear pivot low right there the secondary one here is another valley or v bottom right big drop down big bounce up that creates a pivot low and then look at how you extend that out and price comes down right here hops along the trend line breaks and then does a classic retrace to the scene of the crime there and gets rejected so in terms of the gold miner gdx this line is now your line in the sand or whether or not you get back to that bullish run now my guess is on gold if we did see gold breakout above here that would coincide with the gdx recapturing this 88 level to the upside in addition there's a secondary trend line that I'm continuing to follow right down here look at that basically aligns perfectly I'm trying to get it to match up identically right high pivot to high pivot and it's all in that same zone so again this area right in here on the miners is significant resistance by the way this is one of the reasons this chart is one of the reasons why I'm a little hesitant to get too bullish yet on gold still thinking it could flush down to the 35 3600 level because we have so much overhead resistance on the miners in this zone now if the gold miners break down further your next level is going to be right here at 68 dollars and 60 cents 68 50s area and ultimately if we continue to correct you're kind of looking at this zone right here anywhere between 58 and essentially 54 as being a huge level of support in fact based on ta that would be my big accumulation zone and just want to refresh that I continue to be longer term very bullish on the miners longer term very bullish on gold but again near term I'm I've got a mixed picture here and I'm you know listen the charts of the charts it is what it is as they say and right now this overhead hanging area is something that has to be dealt with on the chart of gdx just like on gold if we flip back to gold gold must find out which way is it going to break is it going to break to the downside or is it going to break to the upside now just like the stock market recently over the last few months before this recent pullback we saw it break above a level we could easily see this flush back below now I think the stock market and if we go back to the S&P 500 right so if we look at the S&P 500 here we knew we broke above this upsloping trend line this ascending trend line here on the S&P that goes all the way back to the bull market high of 2021 it actually extends even further but just for ease of showing I'm just doing it from there to this high here and then notice how we're hammering on this this is kind of what I'm thinking inversely for gold which kind of makes sense right if gold's a hedge or a safe haven or refinding its safe haven aspect then gold could break below that wedge for a short period of time and then break back above like I think the stock market is doing here where it's up here and it broke out above this longer term trend let's get rid of that trend line just to keep ease so you know again it really shouldn't have broken here based on TA but it was able to and now it my guess is what we're going to see here we see a kind of a fake out to the upside getting the last bulls on board which is what's happened over the last couple months and then I think it's going to based on what I've seen in charts is we're going to eventually get a break down in gold right so you're going to get this kind of wedge it's going to fake people out breaking down come down flush to that 35 3600 right and then it's going to recapture and fool everyone right and when I say everyone it's not going to fool us but you'll see a lot of bearish sentiment on this right it's going to be the last flush out of the weekend and then gold will recapture and start to make that move to the upside dramatically and again just amazing how markets work and how you see these kind of fake outs where markets can break short term above key levels and then ultimately flush back through so keep that keep that in mind and obviously listen let's just watch this because the basics of it is on gold is if we break above this trend line it's off to the races right I mean it's and not literally off to the races but at least it's broken out at that point we'll see which way it breaks all right let's move on to crude oil here crude oil again near term I am bullish on crude oil I love and I absolutely love that near term I saw so many headlines this weekend about a glut in oil like so much oil yet if you think about statistically and database it's not. Now that those headlines on mainstream financial media go to kind of make people more bearish on oil right think about what's been going on obviously ignore I mean people were so bullish on oil when we were at one twenty or even at a hundred dollars a barrel now you have the opposite impact where people are overly bearish and that just makes me short term bullish right I mean technically speaking and psychologically speaking which really go hand in hand now if look here we knew we filled a gap all right so gap fill on it I've been trained and I've trained my mind to not think about the headlines that I see on mainstream media about a glut in oil or what's being talked about on CNBC but this is a gap fill so until proven otherwise until it breaks and confirms I think short term we trade back up I've already looked and isolated this level down around seventy nine dollars a barrel as my upside near term target that's about a fifteen percent upside move. Now not only is that a pivot low but if we do a Fibonacci retrace from our high of a hundred and twenty right to our recent lows look at where the two three six Fibonacci is literally right at that low so that gives us double factor technical targeting for a bounce on oil and so again you might say well why not why couldn't oil go higher well it could but I actually think mid term to longer term oil still going lower now the thesis for lower oil mid to long term is basically a slowing U. S. economy all right so again you know how long can the U. S. economy hold on when you have seventy five eighty percent of people already feeling like they're in a recession when inflation even though oils come in we're still seeing food prices go up we're seeing all these other things go up it just eats away and yes you can have a small percentage of the population holding up the consumer spending for a certain amount of time but that's reliant on the stock market continuing to go up now if the A. I. trade is going to stall out a little bit here then do we see a slowdown there as well now looking at the bigger time frame how low so let's say we bounce back up to about the seventy eight seventy nine maybe eighty dollar a barrel level and then start coming in where would oil come down what we do is we just zoom out and there's an amazing trend line here guys check this out right here so we're essentially taking a trend line dragging it through these former pivot highs right so look high pivot from twenty twenty two high pivot from this is this was in March twenty twenty two in June of twenty twenty two connects right through the high in June of twenty twenty five and look at how when we gap we gapped above this is what we call a river theory in my technical analysis playbook where we closed and then we gapped above the river we kind of jumped over the resistance line right here and then it had a huge run well the idea is a return to the scene of the crime a technical you know technical term that I've coined to mean that eventually we have to go revisit that line currently sitting around sixty one but remember this line will go lower over time so it really depends on where it is and again I guess my guess and again just going through you know how long this could take let's say it takes a little time for us to move back up here and then we kind of head back down here we're looking at kind of mid fifties to fifty dollars down the line obviously this will be October- but if we can see a slowdown by late in the year yeah I think fifty five to fifty dollars by your end on crude oil is absolutely. A possibility for a target on crude oil so near term bullish- mid to longer term bearish let's look at natural gas natural gas continues to make this beautiful little. It kind of cup and handle pattern it still has not broken out though yet right and so I think that's the important thing that I'm just monitoring here I definitely am interested in a long trade on this but again I need to see some sort of significant kind of break out and I guess one of the things we could do here is we can draw this trend line look at how this trend line on natural gas from this high on March ninth twenty twenty six exact high exact high exact high and exact high. So basically you're watching to see do you get a break out above three thirty five or so if that happens then I actually think we run as high as four thirty which would be a significant basically twenty five thirty percent move to the upside on natural gas by the way natural gas is to take over dominance from crude oil in the next year or so as the most widely used energy source here in the U. S. probably more so globally as well as we know I think that's very interesting to see that narratives the seed is being planted out there by institutional money on natural gas to drive price up a little bit higher and that would also be a potential reason why oil could come down if there's more and more of a glut there in oil due to kind of a flip on natural gas as an energy source all right so that's really what we're kind of keeping an eye on if we go to the weekly you can see again big pop big drop and then here's that trend line we're looking at the kind of cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart you can see it kind of forming here as well but overall natural gas has been very quiet of late but we will be keeping an eye on it in the coming days and weeks I may be jumping in if we get a break out on the charts overall all right just a reminder folks come to verified investing dot com if you're interested in my exact entries and exit alerts all right and also if you just want to join my youtube here my premium youtube and I did put out a coupon code yesterday there's in fact two active coupon codes one for a service discount that's the biggest we've ever offered as well as an additional discount on courses above what we're already doing that's just join my youtube and you get access in the videos to those coupon codes I put out a members only video just yesterday all right you guys have a great rest of your day thank you so much for tuning in I appreciate your support the kind words the comments you guys mean the world to me have a great rest of your day take care