We cover: Why the oil shock is being read as an inflation shock, not a safe-haven event Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole position and the choice facing the Federal Reserve The two rates in conflict: the Fed funds rate and the market-set 10-year Treasury yield $40 trillion in federal debt, Treasury buybacks, and pressure at the long end If Warsh holds the credibility problem. If Warsh hikes the stagflation trap The three paths ahead, plus the signals we are watching: the 10-year yield, the dollar, oil, real yields, and the gold-silver ratio
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Central banks are increasingly shifting reserves from U.S. Treasuries to gold due to declining trust in the U.S. dollar. This trend is driven by massive national debt, the \"weaponization\" of the dollar in geopolitics, and rising inflation. The shift reflects a global effort to secure wealth in non-dollar assets to mitigate political risks and currency debasement.
It's official, for the first time in history, central banks around the world are buying
less United States debt and instead they're buying more gold because gold has just overtaken
United States treasuries as a world's reserve asset.
But that's not all.
Countries around the world are getting concerned about the health of the United States government
so they're moving their wealth outside of the United States.
France just pulled all of their physical gold out of the United States Federal Reserve and
now Germany is considering doing the same thing.
But it gets a little worse.
Up until not that long ago, if you wanted to buy gold anywhere in the world, it was
generally priced in United States dollars.
But Hong Kong just launched a new way to be able to purchase gold without the United States
dollar.
Instead, they're pricing gold in the Chinese Yuan.
Take a listen.
The city's central clearing and settlement system for gold begins trial operations with
its first transaction completed today.
The reason why all this matters is the United States dollar is not backed by physical gold.
It's backed by a promise that the United States dollar has value.
And that promise is valuable if people are using the United States dollar.
But if people are less trusting of the dollar, if less countries are using the dollar, well
that hurts the value of the dollar and that makes life more expensive for people that
use the United States dollar.
So in this video, what I want to do is break down what's going on and then I'll go over
what this means and how I can actually get opportunity.
So make sure you stick with me until the end of this video.
By the way, I ran a survey and I asked, what are you most concerned about in the economy
right now?
And the most popular answer was the dollar losing value.
And that's why in September 29th, I'm hosting a live free and virtual investor workshop
where I'm going to be going over how you can profit from the dollar losing value based
off of things that I'm doing and my firm is doing.
It's a free workshop.
I'm doing it twice on September 29th, once at 1030 a.m. Eastern time.
Then again, I'm doing the same workshop in the evening at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
So if you'd like to register for free, all you have to do is click the link down in the
description below.
This makes you do so soon because we have a limited number of people that can actually
join me live.
And when you sign up for the workshop as a free bonus, you're also going to get access
to market briefs, which is my newsletter for investors completely for free.
For many decades, countries around the world kept their reserves in United States debt
because it was considered a very safe investment and it was a great investment that paid out
strong interest rates.
But now they're starting to change.
Countries are saying, we don't know if we trust the United States debt so much because
the United States now has over $40 trillion worth of national debt.
So we need an alternative.
And the new alternative is gold.
Take a look.
Back in the year 1971, the United States dollar was backed by physical gold.
So gold and dollars were connected one to one.
And back then, 33% of the world's reserves were in physical gold.
20% were in the United States treasuries, meaning lending money to the United States
government.
30% was saved in the United States dollar.
And then the euro did not exist at that time.
Look at what happened next.
Because on August 15th, 1971, then President Richard Nixon took the United States dollar
temporarily off of the gold standard.
I have directed Secretary Connolly to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar
into gold or other reserve assets.
Your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.
The effect of this action, in other words, will be to stabilize the dollar.
The reason why he did that was the United States government had a lot of debts and was
on the verge of defaulting.
So to protect the government from defaulting on their debt, he took the dollar off of the
gold standard.
That way we could print an unlimited amount of money.
And now all our problems were solved.
We just printed blank checks and paid off all of our bills.
But then came the inflation of the 1970s.
During the 1970s, we had the most inflation that we have seen in modern history, even
more than during the pandemic time.
And because of all that inflation, people lost trust in the United States dollar.
People lost trust in the United States treasuries.
So what did central banks and governments around the world do?
They didn't want to own the dollar or treasuries.
They wanted to own more physical gold.
So what we saw is that gold became a very strong store of wealth around the world.
By the year 1980, the United States treasuries, meaning lending money to the United States
government, fell down to 15 percent and the United States dollar fell down to 15 percent
as well.
Well, again, the euro did not exist.
Then what we saw happen in the 1980s was the Federal Reserve Bank had to jack up interest
rates to double digit levels, almost 20 percent, which created a deep recession, a very high
unemployment rate, but it saved the dollar.
And then what we saw happen again is people started trusting the dollar and they started
trusting the United States government debt.
So gold became a smaller fraction, 11 percent of the world's reserve currency, and instead
what people wanted was United States treasuries, which was now 30 percent of the global reserve
asset.
The United States dollar about 28 percent, which means about 58 percent total in the
United States dollar and then 17 percent now in the euro because now the euro exists.
But the reason why countries now wanted more of treasuries and dollars versus gold was
treasuries pay interest.
Gold doesn't.
When you own a bar of gold and it sits in a vault somewhere, it doesn't pay you anything.
These treasuries are backed by the United States government and they're paying an interest
rate so governments are getting richer.
So long as these treasuries are valuable.
But now take a look at what's happening today in 2026.
Gold is making a comeback again.
Gold is now up to 27 percent of the world's reserve assets.
United States treasuries have fallen to 22 percent.
The United States dollar has fallen to 20 percent and the euro has fallen to 15 percent.
Why are these currencies falling?
Because of national debt.
Remember, these currencies are not backed by physical metals.
Our dollar is not backed by physical gold.
So as we print more money, we now have over 40 trillion dollars worth of national debt.
When the government spends money it doesn't have, that means each dollar loses value.
So these countries around the world are saying, well, we want our assets to grow or at least
not lose value.
And so they're saying maybe it's safer for us to own gold than United States dollars
or United States debt.
Because yeah, we might get paid back, but those dollars might have less value when we
get paid back because the government is printing so much money and we have concerns about inflation.
This is why on my channel, I love to talk about history because while history doesn't
exactly repeat itself, it does rhyme.
And while a lot of people like to guess and predict what's going to happen, I just like
to take a look at what has happened in the past.
And the best way for me to understand what's happening is to give you the example of buying
a house.
Let's assume that you want to buy this $500,000 house.
Now if you went out and you bought this house and you got a $400,000 loan, I think most
people will look at this and say, hey, that's fair.
You put down 20% as a down payment, you got an 80% loan.
If you can afford the monthly payments, not a big deal.
This is 80% loan to value.
But now let's flip the script.
What if now you went to the bank, you said, hey, I want to buy this $500,000 house.
I don't have $500,000.
I don't even have $100,000 for the down payment.
Can you give me all $500,000?
Plus I want to renovate the basement.
Plus I want some new furniture.
Plus I want to pay for the moving costs.
Plus I want a brand new TV.
So now in this instance, you got a $600,000 loan for your $500,000 house.
In this case, you have 120% loan to value.
This is where a lot of people now would get concerned because if you can't make your payments,
well, you are underwater on your house and you can start to see how that would be a problem
because you have more debt than what the house is worth.
So if you can't pay, well, you're already underwater.
The bank's not going to be able to get their money back.
Well, when we're talking about the United States government debt, the collateral is
no longer a house and it's no longer physical gold.
It used to be pre-1971, but now because our dollar is not backed by gold, our collateral
is not a house.
It's not physical gold.
It is the strength of our United States economy and the United States economy is measured
through a number called GDP, which just measures all spending that happens in our economy.
So let's just take a look at how our economy is being measured to our debt and where that
Back in the year 2000, our United States economy GDP was $10.2 trillion.
Our national debt was around $5.7 trillion, which means our debt to GDP ratio was right
around 55%, which is what many people would say is healthy.
Fast forward to the year 2026 and our economy grew significantly.
Now it's $32 trillion large, but so did our national debt.
Our national debt grew from $5.7 trillion to just over $40 trillion, which means our
national debt grew significantly faster than our economy because now our debt to GDP ratio
is about 125%.
We are underwater on our debt relative to the size of our economy, and this is why some
people, countries around the world, individual people are saying, I don't feel so comfortable
continuing to lend my money to the United States government because you're already underwater.
And if we keep printing more money, that's going to create more inflation.
So we rather own something like physical gold and that's what we've seen happen.
But that's not all.
There's one more thing that happened in the last few years that has countries around the
world questioning if they want to keep their money and wealth here versus something like
physical gold.
When Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2022, Russia had some of their assets stored right
here with United States dollars and United States treasuries.
Well, the United States was not happy when Russia invaded Ukraine.
So what the United States did when they saw Russia do that is they then said, OK, your
assets and United States dollars, you can't access them.
We have just frozen your assets, your money.
And other countries around the world were saying, hmm, maybe we don't agree with Russia.
Maybe we do.
But we don't like the idea of the United States punishing them by freezing their assets.
So maybe we want to get out of these United States assets and be more into physical gold.
Just take a look at what Putin had to say when he met with Tucker Carlson.
What does the debt of 33 trillion dollars tell us about?
As soon as the political leadership decided to use the US dollar as a tool of political
struggle, a blow was dealt to this American power.
I would not like to use any strong language, but it is a stupid thing to do and a grave
mistake.
Look at what is going on in the world.
Even the United States allies are now downsizing their dollar reserves.
Seeing this, everyone starts looking for ways to protect themselves.
But the fact that the United States applies restrictive measures to certain countries,
such as placing restrictions on transactions, freezing assets, etc., causes grave concern
and sends a signal to the whole world.
Do you even realize what is going on or not?
Does anyone in the United States realize this?
What are you doing?
You are cutting yourself off.
All experts say this.
Ask any intelligent and thinking person in the United States what the dollar means for
the US.
You are killing it with your own hands.
The reason why all this matters, again, is because the United States dollar is called
a fiat currency.
It's not backed by physical gold.
It's backed by a promise that the dollar has value and the dollar only has value if people
believe it has value and people want to use the dollar.
The more people that actually keep their money and savings and wealth in the dollar, the
more that people are transacting with the dollar, the more that your dollar has value,
the cheaper your life is.
Because the stronger your dollar is, the cheaper your groceries are, the cheaper your cars
are, the cheaper your electronics are.
But if people don't have trust in the dollar, well now all of a sudden this piece of paper
that you're going to buy stuff with doesn't have as much buying power and now the prices
of everything go up, your paycheck doesn't buy as much, your savings don't buy as much
because now you're just hoarding these pieces of paper that people now think is funny money
because they don't want the dollar.
That's why this trust and faith in the fiat currency is so important for that fiat currency
to be able to survive as a currency and when people leave the dollar or when people don't
want to own the dollar, that hurts the value of the fiat currency.
That's not all.
Countries around the world are not just becoming hesitant to save their money in the United
States dollar, but they're becoming hesitant to keep their gold in the United States votes.
In 2026, France, who was an ally with the United States, pulled their physical gold
out of the United States Federal Reserve vaults because they wanted to keep it in their vaults
and not trust it in the United States.
Now there are talks about Germany doing the same thing.
Now I feel like most people, you're probably wondering, well, why does that even matter?
And it all has to do with trust.
When these countries around the world would save their physical gold in the United States,
they're saying you are the most strongest economy in the world, you are the most strongest
empire in the world, you have the strongest military in the world, we trust our wealth
with you.
And now more and more countries are saying, because of some of this uneasiness, we no
longer trust you, we'd rather keep it ourselves.
And we've seen why this can be so important.
Back in 2019, Venezuela, whose economy was struggling, went to the Bank of England and
said we want to get our physical gold back.
And England said, no.
So when you hear the news that France or Germany want to get their physical gold out of the
United States, it's generally because they're concerned that something bad could happen
and they don't want to have to run into a situation where they cannot access their wealth.
But that's not all.
Over the last 50 years or so, if you wanted to buy gold anywhere in the world, it was
generally priced in United States dollars.
That means if you're China and you want to buy this anti-dollar asset, like physical
gold, well that transaction would still be settled in the United States dollar, it would
be priced in the United States dollar, and it would be going through the dollar systems.
But that's changing.
In July 2026, Hong Kong launched their own gold settlement program, which allows people
to be able to buy physical gold without the United States dollar.
Instead, you can buy it with the Chinese Yuan.
And the reason why that matters, again, is because the United States dollar is backed
off of trust and faith.
And if less people need the dollar, well then they have less trust or faith in the dollar.
And this is a similar story to what we've seen play out in the past.
Back when the United States dollar was taken off of the gold standard in 1971, a lot of
people got concerned that there's nothing back in the dollar.
How do we know that this dollar has value?
It's just a piece of paper.
So how are we going to value the dollar?
And that was when, in 1974, the petrodollar was created.
The petrodollar was this idea that if you wanted to buy oil anywhere in the world, you'd
have to buy it through the United States dollar.
How did that happen?
Well, in 1974, the United States made an agreement with Saudi Arabia, and we said, essentially,
hey, we'll protect you, Saudi Arabia.
You just make sure that everybody buys oil with the United States dollar.
So before, if you wanted to buy oil, you had to do it with the United States dollar.
This was the petrodollar that was established in 1974 through Saudi Arabia.
Then fast forward to what happened.
In 2024, Saudi Arabia made a deal with China.
That way you could be able to buy oil, not with the United States dollar, but with the
Chinese Yuan.
Well, now what are we seeing happen with gold?
Before, if you wanted to buy gold, you had to do it with the United States dollar.
It was priced with the dollar around the world.
For decades, this was the way, which helped bring faith and trust to the United States
dollar, because if you wanted to buy gold anywhere, the dollar had to be involved.
But now we're starting to see a shift, because as of July 2026, Hong Kong has built a new
settlement system that you can buy physical gold, not with the United States dollar, but
with the Chinese Yuan.
Now, this is where I want to make one thing explicitly clear.
A lot of people have been worried about the Chinese Yuan overtaking the United States
dollar as the world's reserve currency.
And just so I can make this explicitly clear, if we take a look at world reserve assets
around the world, you have gold, United States treasuries, United States dollars, the euro.
Well, in the year 2026, the Chinese Yuan has grown from around 0% of the world's reserve
asset to approximately 2% of the world's reserve asset.
So it's not a huge player, but the big thing here is people are trying to move away from
the United States dollar, and instead, what are they trying to move to?
It's not necessarily the Chinese Yuan, it's right here.
It is this gold that we're seeing more central banks around the world move to, more countries
around the world move to, because they want something more stable than the United States
dollar.
Now, based off of all recorded data that we have public access to, the United States is
the number one holder of physical gold in the world.
But the bigger concern that people have is what is going to happen to the value of the
United States dollar, and that ultimately depends on one thing.
What is going to win, our economy or our debt?
Because what we have seen for the last number of decades is our national debt has way outpaced
our economy.
We went from around a 55% debt to GDP ratio in the year 2000 to 125% debt to GDP ratio
in the year 2026.
And so what are we going to see over the next decade?
Are we going to see our economy blow past our national debt?
In which case, a lot of the concerns and worries are probably going to go away.
Or is our national debt going to grow faster than our economy?
In which case, these worries and concerns are probably going to get a whole lot worse.
And the reason why you want to understand is that's going to change where some of the
best and biggest investment opportunities are going to be.
This is exactly what I'm going to be going very deep into on my live workshop on September
29th.
So if you haven't registered for that, again, I have that link for you down in the description.
But there's two ways you could think about this.
If you are concerned that our United States national debt is going to continue to outpace
our economy, that our government is going to keep spending more money and our economy
is not going to keep up, well, that means you're more concerned about inflation.
And if you're more concerned about inflation, well, the more common debasement assets are
things like gold, silver, bitcoin.
Now, silver is the most volatile.
Bitcoin is also extremely volatile.
Gold is more of the traditional debasement concern asset.
The idea being we have all these countries around the world buying gold, we have central
banks around the world buying gold, and it's been hard money for centuries.
On the flip side, if you believe that the government is going to either contain their
debt or the economy is going to grow faster than the debt, well, then you just want to
own the economy and you want to own American assets.
You can just buy something like the S&P 500, you can buy more of American whatever assets
that you want, stocks.
That way, now you can own a piece of the economic growth.
Again, nobody knows what the future is.
My goal is to show you what's going on, that way you can be a smarter investor and make
sure that you have the best plan for yourself.
And that starts with the right education of knowing what's happening, that way you can
allocate your money the right way.
Investing in money is hard.
And on this channel, I teach how you can start investing your money yourself.
But for some of you working with a financial advisor, somebody who is a professional will
be a better option because now it's more hands off and you can work with a professional
who will manage and invest your money for you.
And that's why I partnered with my sponsor, Money Pickle.
The reason why I like Money Pickle is because first they get to know you and what your needs
are, and then they match you with a vetted financial advisor who would be best suited
for your needs.
And then they give you a free consultation call with the financial advisor, that way
you can get a feel of the financial advisor and see if they're right for you or not.
That way you don't have to go through a high pressure sales process with somebody who might
not even be a good fit for you.
If you're interested in learning more and you have over $100,000 in assets, the process
is pretty simple.
All you have to do is complete a short form, I have that link for you down in the description.
It takes a few minutes to complete.
And once you do that, Money Pickle will review your answers and then pair you with a vetted
financial advisor who they believe is best suited for you.
It's a completely free process, that initial consultation again is free.
And then if you decide to move forward, then you can negotiate and discuss what your rates
and terms look like with that financial advisor directly.
So if you want help managing your money and you want to work with a vetted financial advisor,
my sponsor Money Pickle can help get you paired up with a financial advisor at no additional
cost.
So if you want to learn more, I have that link for you down in the description.
So what we talked about in this video is that for the first time in modern history, central
banks around the world now own more gold than they do United States treasuries.
Why?
Because they are concerned about the United States treasuries and the value here and so
they rather own an asset that pays zero interest like gold because they believe that that is
a better asset for them.
Now we saw this trend really accelerate post pandemic for two reasons.
Number one was because we had a huge amount of money printing that happened during the
pandemic which devalued the dollar.
Because remember our dollar is not backed by physical gold, it is a fiat currency which
means it's backed by a promise that this dollar has value.
So it's just a piece of paper.
And so when we started printing trillions and trillions of dollars, people felt rich
even though no wealth was being created and so the cost of that was inflation.
The prices of things went up, the value of the dollar went down.
Then the second thing that we saw happen was after Russia invaded Ukraine, what we saw
is that the United States froze these assets, United States dollar assets from Russia because
they did not like what Russia did.
This then signaled to other countries around the world saying, huh, maybe we should get
some of our wealth out of the United States dollar because if we do something the United
States doesn't like, they can then punish us by freezing our assets.
So what we saw is that now countries around the world have been working to buy more gold
than United States treasuries and United States dollars.
And the reason why that matters is because our fiat currency is backed by trust and it's
backed by faith.
It's not backed by physical gold.
And as we've seen our debt to GDP ratio go from around 55% back in the year 2000 to 125%
now in 2026, there's been more and more concerns about the United States dollar and that has
been one of the triggers for people to now leave the dollar and look for something else.
What is it something else?
Well, it's been physical gold as we've been seeing gold rise as a reserve asset around
the world.
But that's not all.
We're also seeing some countries lose their trust in where they want to keep their physical
gold because France has now pulled their physical gold out of the United States Federal
Reserve vaults and Germany is talking about doing the same thing.
While at the same time, we've also seen Hong Kong work to build their own settlement system
so people can buy gold without the United States dollar instead with the Chinese Yuan.
Again, why does all this matter?
Because the dollar is backed by trust and faith.
And if people are using the dollar less, there's less trust and faith in the dollar, which
hurts the value of your dollar, which makes things more expensive.
So then what we talked about is what does this mean from an investment opportunity?
Well, if you believe that the dollar is going to continue losing value, that our national
debt is going to outpace our economy, well, then some of the debasement assets could be
a great place to start.
Again, I'm not here to tell you what to invest in, I'm just showing you how to think like
an investor.
Or if you believe the economy is going to outpace the debt, then you want to own a piece
of the economy.
And with that, if you got value out of this video, the best thank you is a referral.
So if you could, please share this video with a friend, family member, colleague, or
fellow investor.
That way we can continue to spread this type of financial education.
Thank you.
For most of the last 15 years, it was cheaper for you to buy a house than it was to actually
rent a house.
But now that has flipped.
It has become so expensive to buy a house that we're now turning into a buyer's market
because sellers can't sell their houses, so they're cutting prices and giving concessions
because buyers are saying, it's cheaper for me to rent.
This is where things get weird.
You know what I'm saying?