Russian elites and security forces unite against Putin: the dictator is driven from the Kremlin
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If the current situation in Russia and the war against Ukraine persist, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could be overthrown within the next three years, according to Forbes columnist Melik Kaylan. Kailan believes Vladimir Putin's days are numbered. Ukrainian defense forces are intensifying air strikes against military and strategic targets in Russia, as well as in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories and annexed Crimea. Many Russian occupiers have already fled Crimea, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces have effectively cut it off from the mainland, creating enormous fuel shortages for the Russian occupation administration. A Forbes columnist noted that more and more Russians are dissatisfied with the war in Ukraine and Putin's domestic and foreign policies. Russians complain of war fatigue, attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and fuel shortages. According to Kaylan, if the current situation persists or worsens, Putin could be overthrown within the next three years. This could happen, for example, through a military rebellion followed by a civil war between Russian security forces. The Russian dictator could die during a military coup. This is exactly what happened to the Romanian dictator Ceausescu, who was overthrown by the military and quickly executed, while the former elite continued to rule the country. Melik Kaylan believes that the Russian elite and security forces could make Putin a scapegoat. Consequently, he could be kept alive for trial. It was previously reported that Russian elites are concerned about Ukraine's attacks on Russia's rear. Alongside the fuel crisis, economic problems in Russia are gathering pace. War costs are rapidly rising, as is the hole in the Russian state budget. The decline in oil prices following the end of the war in Iran has added further pressure. Authorities are already discussing unpopular measures such as confiscating bank deposits. Western media reported that Vladimir Putin’s position within Russia’s power structure had weakened significantly and that plans for his removal were allegedly taking shape within the ruling elite. Adverse trends affecting the Kremlin have been intensifying in Russia across several domains: economic,, and military and security. Discontent with the Kremlin’s policy is growing among the country’s political and business elites, driven by a gradual shift in the balance of costs and benefits associated with maintaining the current regime.
Although signs of systemic erosion are mounting, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that a crisis of power or an elite revolt is imminent. The likelihood of such a scenario would increase significantly in the event of Russia’s defeat in the war, a severe economic crisis or Putin losing the physical capacity to govern the country; however, none of these developments appears likely in the near future. At present, European security interests require weakening Russia to the greatest extent possible and exacerbating internal tensions within the country in order to reduce its capacity to conduct multi-domain warfare against Ukraine and NATO member states.
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