Gerasimov deceives Putin; the general leads the dictator to terrible disaster
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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's triumphant claims about progress on the front are due to the fact that he's being told achievements that don't correspond to reality, military expert and former Security Service of Ukraine officer Ivan Stupak stated in a commentary to Unian.
"That's what his General Staff reports to him. They report twice a day. That is, twice a day, military personnel come to him and report on what's happening. But it's no secret that the Russian map of combat operations differs from reality, from Deep State, from ISW, by 15-17 kilometers," he said. That is, according to the expert, the Russian combat map shows positions 15–17 km more advantageous for them than they actually are.
"This is because you need to regularly report positive news to the higher-ups. Prolonged negativity, God forbid, or at best something neutral, still leads to discontent. There could be personnel changes, so they've caught the mood perfectly. If you want everything to be fine, report small but positive developments every day: they've arrived here, they've established themselves there, they've been driven out there. No one asks anymore how it's going, where they're standing, where they're standing, or where they've died. The main thing is that the boss gets the message," Stupak explained.
In his opinion, such positive reports are pushing Putin to engage in military action. Western analysts say the occupiers are stuck, but according to the Russian map, they are advancing, so Putin is not yet at the negotiating table.
The expert emphasized that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are painful, primarily for Crimea and the occupied territories:
"It's not that there's no fuel there. You can buy it on the black market, but it costs 250 hryvnias per liter. But we'll see the effect, roughly, in a month or a month and a half, when the reserves the Russian military has stockpiled in these occupied territories run out, and then we'll truly see the first results of our attacks."
Due to the fuel shortage, as Stupak noted, the number of drone strikes in Ukraine will also decrease, since generators are needed to charge them, and therefore gasoline.
"If they don't deliver gasoline or a diesel generator, there's no power, no battery charging—that's it, the number of drones will be reduced, the operational range will be shorter. But I expect that to happen in August. I think there will still be supplies in July, and then in August, we'll see some results," he said.
Moreover, in his opinion, Putin's statement that the entire Donbass and "Novorossiya" up to Odessa and Kharkov is still the target is more for a domestic audience:
"Although they could indeed capture 90-95 percent of Konstantinovka within a calendar year, I think we'll lose two-thirds of Konstantinovka by the end of the summer. But Slavyansk-Kramatorsk are large fortresses."
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